Real Madrid v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.44 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-1.04 – -1.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
66.5%
Draw
17.1%
Real Sociedad win
16.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.11–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.34–1.04 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.04 xGReal Sociedad 1.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 6' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 12' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl |
| 26' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 30' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 33' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Pacheco Dozagarat |
| 35' |
Real Madrid |
Lucas Vázquez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 61' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 62' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fran García |
| 64' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vallejo |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Martín |
| 78' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Modric |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.58 | 0.29 | 1.54 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.85 |
| Federico Valverde MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Arda Güler FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.69 | 1.19 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Andriy Lunin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dani Ceballos MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.74 |
| Luka Modric MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.10 |
| Lucas Vázquez DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Brahim Diaz FWL | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1.03 |
| Vinícius Júnior Sub | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.41 |
| Jesús Vallejo Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Unai Marrero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luka Sucic FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Sergio Gómez ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| Arkaitz Mariezkurrena FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martín Zubimendi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Brais Méndez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |