Real Madrid v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.54 – 1.02
Goals − xG
+0.94 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
72.5%
Draw
17.3%
Real Sociedad win
10.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid have scored 27 from 25.2 expected and conceded 11 from 11.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWWLWW last 10
scored 27
from 25.2 xG
conceded 11
from 11.1 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLLWDWLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.5 xG
conceded 18
from 19.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.39–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.46–1.09 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.06 xGReal Sociedad 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 4' |
 Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 5' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aihen Muñoz |
| 15' |
Real Sociedad |
Yangel Herrera | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 16' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 20' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 30' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álvaro Fernández |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 48' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 48' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Martín |
| 58' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 60' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 62' |
Real Sociedad |
Aihen Muñoz | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 69' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonzalo García |
| 77' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Aihen Muñoz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.58 | 0.08 | 0.80 |
| Gonzalo García FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.19 | 0.09 | 1.27 |
| Arda Güler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1.38 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.36 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Federico Valverde MR | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.58 | 1.30 |
| Eduardo Camavinga ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.78 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.96 |
| David Alaba Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Daniel Carvajal Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Cestero Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aihen Muñoz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Pablo Marín AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley AML | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Daniel Díaz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |