Real Madrid v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 26 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.69 – +0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
69.6%
Draw
17.7%
Real Sociedad win
12.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.27–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.54–1.05 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.31 xGReal Sociedad 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 6' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 6' |
 Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 34' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Federico Valverde |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 48' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 59' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 66' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.95 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 69' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 76' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 77' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luken Beitia |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 1.71 | 0.27 | 1.98 |
| Federico Valverde DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1.32 |
| Denzel Dumfries DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.08 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bernardo Silva DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 86 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.25 | 0.58 | 2.22 |
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 80 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.11 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Arda Güler AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Marc Cucurella Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Yan Diomande Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Sucic AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Luken Beitia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Takefusa Kubo AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Job Ochieng AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Igor Zubeldia Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 |