Real Madrid v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 14
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
2.71 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-2.00 – -1.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
73.2%
Draw
15.4%
Sevilla win
11.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.56–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.76–0.91 | 2-0 10% | 71% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 4.00 xGSevilla 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 4' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrygo |
| 6' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 16' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 17' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 22' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rodrygo |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rodrygo |
| 36' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.33 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Rodrygo |
| 42' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrygo |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 50' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 55' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 56' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 57' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 65' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 70' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 77' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 77' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 80' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 86' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfon |
| 87' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.83 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Peque |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Sánchez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 1.19 |
| Djibril Sow MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| José Ángel Carmona DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Batista Mendy MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Marcão DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.93 |
| Oso Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Peque Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Alfon Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Adnan Januzaj Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike Salas Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.54 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| Jude Bellingham MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Rodrygo FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.11 | 1.19 | 0.60 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Raúl DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Vinícius Júnior FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| Arda Güler MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.62 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Jiménez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |