Real Madrid v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+1.87 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyReal Madrid win
75.2%
model 74.9%
Draw
17.6%
model 15.4%
Sevilla win
7.2%
model 9.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 11.4%
- 3-0 9.7%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 1-0 9.0%
- 3-1 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.8% | Under 2.5 | 35.2% |
| BTTS yes | 50.8% | BTTS no | 49.2% |
| Real Madrid 1+ | 92.1% | Real Madrid 2+ | 72.0% |
| Sevilla 1+ | 55.2% | Sevilla 2+ | 19.2% |
Expected goals 2.54 – 0.80. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Real Madrid (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 21%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sevilla (0:4)
Handicap 0:4 · usually 97%
84.3% fair odds 1.19
weak signal · 64 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1800 Elo against 1522.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Real Madrid have an estimated 75.2% win probability, against 17.6% for the draw and 7.2% for Sevilla. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.54 for Real Madrid and 0.80 for Sevilla.
Why Real Madrid
Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1800 Elo against 1522. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 17.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Sevilla can win
Away from home Sevilla average 1.23 xG a match.
Key players
Real Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (0.97), Vinícius Júnior (0.56), Jude Bellingham (0.38). Sevilla's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.31), Lucas Stassin (0.28), Neal Maupay (0.28).
Availability
1 of Real Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Madrid had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.56 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Real Madrid: Dean Huijsen (suspended). 1 of Sevilla's top three contributors did not start their last match. Sevilla had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.18 expected goal involvements a match. 45% of Sevilla's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Madrid: 44% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Sevilla: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-18 14:11 · team_stats 2026-10-18 06:07 · availability 2026-10-18 15:01 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Real Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 75.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.4%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid have scored 27 from 25.2 expected and conceded 11 from 11.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWWLWW last 10
scored 27
from 25.2 xG
conceded 11
from 11.1 xG
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.54–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 2.39–0.70 | 2-0 13% | 60% | 46% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.39–0.70 | 2-0 13% | 60% | 46% | Home ✓ | |
| deep | 2.39–0.70 | 2-0 13% | 60% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 75.0% | 73.9% | 46.3% | 1.60× | 1.35 |
| Draw | 16.0% | 19.4% | 25.4% | 0.76× | 5.16 |
| Sevilla to win | 9.1% | 8.2% | 28.4% | 0.29× | 12.17 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid & not both score | 45.1% | 43.1% | 24.9% | 1.73× | 2.32 |
| Real Madrid & both teams score | 29.9% | 25.2% | 21.5% | 1.17× | 3.97 |
| Draw & both teams score | 11.5% | 13.3% | 20.2% | 0.66× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 0.91× | 20.54 |
| Sevilla & not both score | 4.6% | 4.9% | 14.4% | 0.34× | 20.54 |
| Sevilla & both teams score | 4.4% | 4.9% | 14.1% | 0.35× | 20.54 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid & over 1.5 | 64.1% | 54.7% | 33.7% | 1.62× | 1.83 |
| Real Madrid & over 2.5 | 51.1% | 48.8% | 27.9% | 1.75× | 2.05 |
| Real Madrid & under 3.5 | 43.3% | 40.3% | 32.3% | 1.25× | 2.48 |
| Real Madrid & over 3.5 | 31.7% | 30.7% | 14.1% | 2.18× | 3.25 |
| Real Madrid & under 2.5 | 23.8% | 21.6% | 18.5% | 1.17× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 11.5% | 12.8% | 20.2% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 12.1% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 12.1% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Real Madrid & under 1.5 | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 1.01× | 7.79 |
| Sevilla & under 3.5 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 0.37× | 12.62 |
| Sevilla & over 1.5 | 5.9% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 0.37× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 0.90× | 20.80 |
| Sevilla & over 2.5 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 17.0% | 0.28× | 20.80 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 0.92× | 20.81 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 0.92× | 20.81 |
| Sevilla & under 2.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 11.5% | 0.42× | 20.80 |
| Sevilla & under 1.5 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 0.68× | 20.81 |
| Sevilla & over 3.5 | 1.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 0.68× | 20.82 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (1UP) | 83.0% | 87.6% | 62.8% | 1.40× | 1.14 |
| Sevilla (1UP) | 24.3% | 23.0% | 47.1% | 0.49× | 4.34 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (2UP) | 75.0% | 81.6% | 48.0% | 1.70× | 1.23 |
| Sevilla (2UP) | 9.1% | 8.8% | 30.0% | 0.29× | 11.41 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win 2nd half | 60.2% | 58.6% | 39.3% | 1.49× | 1.71 |
| 2nd half drawn | 28.1% | 25.9% | 33.2% | 0.78× | 3.86 |
| Sevilla to win 2nd half | 11.7% | 11.2% | 27.6% | 0.41× | 8.89 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla under 1.5 in 2nd half | 93.0% | 91.8% | 84.2% | 1.09× | 1.09 |
| Sevilla under 0.5 in 2nd half | 65.0% | 60.4% | 47.9% | 1.26× | 1.66 |
| Sevilla over 0.5 in 2nd half | 35.0% | 39.6% | 52.1% | 0.76× | 2.53 |
| Sevilla over 1.5 in 2nd half | 7.0% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 0.52× | 12.24 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid over 0.5 in 2nd half | 74.2% | 74.1% | 58.8% | 1.26× | 1.35 |
| Real Madrid under 1.5 in 2nd half | 60.8% | 63.0% | 79.8% | 0.79× | 1.59 |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 in 2nd half | 39.2% | 37.0% | 20.2% | 1.84× | 2.70 |
| Real Madrid under 0.5 in 2nd half | 25.8% | 25.9% | 41.2% | 0.63× | 3.86 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (+0.5) | 90.9% | 92.1% | 71.6% | 1.29× | 1.09 |
| Real Madrid (-0.5) | 75.0% | 73.7% | 46.3% | 1.59× | 1.36 |
| Sevilla (+2.5) | 69.9% | 68.7% | 89.8% | 0.76× | 1.46 |
| Real Madrid (-1.5) | 52.1% | 52.4% | 20.6% | 2.54× | 1.91 |
| Sevilla (+1.5) | 47.9% | 47.6% | 79.4% | 0.60× | 2.10 |
| Real Madrid (-2.5) | 30.1% | 31.3% | 10.2% | 3.08× | 3.19 |
| Sevilla (+0.5) | 25.0% | 26.3% | 53.7% | 0.49× | 3.80 |
| Sevilla (-0.5) | 9.1% | 7.9% | 28.4% | 0.28× | 12.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to concede | 90.9% | 91.8% | 80.4% | 1.14× | 1.09 |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 9.1% | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.42× | 12.16 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to concede in 1st half | 64.6% | 65.3% | 47.8% | 1.37× | 1.53 |
| Sevilla clean sheet in 1st half | 35.4% | 34.7% | 52.2% | 0.66× | 2.88 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to concede in 2nd half | 74.2% | 71.0% | 58.8% | 1.21× | 1.41 |
| Sevilla clean sheet in 2nd half | 25.8% | 29.0% | 41.2% | 0.70× | 3.45 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla under 6.5 corners | 89.5% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Sevilla under 5.5 corners | 81.4% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Sevilla under 4.5 corners | 69.3% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Sevilla over 2.5 corners | 65.7% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Sevilla under 3.5 corners | 53.1% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Sevilla over 3.5 corners | 46.9% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Sevilla under 2.5 corners | 34.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Sevilla over 4.5 corners | 30.7% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Sevilla over 5.5 corners | 18.6% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
| Sevilla over 6.5 corners | 10.5% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.77 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla under 3.5 goals | 99.4% | 97.5% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Sevilla under 2.5 goals | 96.6% | 97.5% | 89.5% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Sevilla under 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 81.5% | 67.8% | 1.20× | 1.23 |
| Sevilla over 0.5 goals | 50.4% | 53.5% | 69.9% | 0.77× | 1.87 |
| Sevilla under 0.5 goals | 49.6% | 46.5% | 30.1% | 1.55× | 2.15 |
| Sevilla over 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 18.5% | 32.2% | 0.58× | 5.39 |
| Sevilla over 2.5 goals | 3.4% | 2.5% | 10.5% | 0.24× | 39.97 |
| Sevilla over 3.5 goals | 0.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.88× | 40.12 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.9% | 95.8% | 92.9% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Sevilla under 0.5 in 1st half | 76.3% | 75.3% | 63.2% | 1.19× | 1.33 |
| Sevilla over 0.5 in 1st half | 23.7% | 24.7% | 36.8% | 0.67× | 4.04 |
| Sevilla over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 0.59× | 23.97 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla scores equally in both | 55.5% | 52.6% | 41.9% | 1.26× | 1.90 |
| Sevilla scores more in 2nd half | 28.2% | 26.4% | 37.5% | 0.71× | 3.78 |
| Sevilla scores more in 1st half | 16.3% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 0.86× | 5.59 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (away no bet) | 82.4% | 82.6% | 64.5% | 1.28× | 1.21 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 17.6% | 17.4% | 35.5% | 0.49× | 5.76 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla even goals | 62.3% | 59.1% | 53.5% | 1.10× | 1.69 |
| Sevilla odd goals | 37.7% | 40.9% | 46.5% | 0.88× | 2.45 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 80.0% | 81.5% | 86.0% | 0.95× | 1.23 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 1.32× | 5.42 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 70.9% | 67.4% | 62.5% | 1.08× | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 32.6% | 37.5% | 0.87× | 3.06 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 68.4% | 62.3% | 52.3% | 1.19× | 1.61 |
| Real Madrid to score 2+ in a row | 63.4% | 60.1% | 34.4% | 1.75× | 1.66 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 36.1% | 36.5% | 19.2% | 1.90× | 2.74 |
| Real Madrid to score 3+ in a row | 34.9% | 29.2% | 13.2% | 2.22× | 3.43 |
| Sevilla to score 2+ in a row | 9.3% | 5.7% | 23.8% | 0.24× | 17.69 |
| Sevilla to score 3+ in a row | 1.4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 0.39× | 39.82 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid corners (+3.5) | 95.6% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Real Madrid corners (+2.5) | 92.4% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Real Madrid corners (+1.5) | 87.7% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Real Madrid corners (-1.5) | 62.8% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Sevilla corners (+3.5) | 58.1% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Real Madrid corners (-2.5) | 52.3% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Sevilla corners (+2.5) | 47.7% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Real Madrid corners (-3.5) | 41.9% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Sevilla corners (+1.5) | 37.2% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Sevilla corners (-1.5) | 12.3% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Sevilla corners (-2.5) | 7.6% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
| Sevilla corners (-3.5) | 4.4% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.48 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 36.7% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 33.6% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.7% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 74.4% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73.2% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 66.4% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 63.3% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57.1% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53.0% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 47.0% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 42.9% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 36.7% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 33.6% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 26.8% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 25.6% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.64 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.0% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 1.94× | 8.72 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 0.91× | 8.72 |
| 3-0 | 10.4% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 2.55× | 8.72 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 0.77× | 13.51 |
| Any other score | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.23× | 13.50 |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 0.49× | 13.51 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.09× | 13.51 |
| 4-0 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 4.47× | 13.51 |
| 0-0 | 4.5% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 0.32× | 58.29 |
| 0-1 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 0.24× | 58.30 |
| 0-2 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.31 |
| 0-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.85× | 58.32 |
| 0-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.07× | 58.32 |
| 1-2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 8.2% | 0.21× | 58.30 |
| 1-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.81× | 58.32 |
| 1-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.63× | 58.32 |
| 2-2 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.30 |
| 2-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.72× | 58.32 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.90× | 58.32 |
| 3-2 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.32 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.83× | 58.32 |
| 4-1 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.85× | 58.29 |
| 4-2 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.32× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.42× | 58.32 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 14.53× | 58.32 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (2nd half DNB) | 83.7% | 82.5% | 58.7% | 1.41× | 1.21 |
| Sevilla (2nd half DNB) | 16.3% | 17.5% | 41.3% | 0.42× | 5.71 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid leading at HT (DNB) | 85.2% | 86.0% | 61.7% | 1.39× | 1.16 |
| Sevilla leading at HT (DNB) | 14.8% | 14.0% | 38.3% | 0.37× | 7.16 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or draw (1X) | 90.9% | 91.8% | 71.6% | 1.28× | 1.09 |
| Real Madrid or Sevilla (12) | 84.0% | 80.6% | 74.6% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Sevilla or draw (X2) | 25.0% | 26.1% | 53.7% | 0.49× | 3.83 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or draw at HT | 90.4% | 89.8% | 78.3% | 1.15× | 1.11 |
| Real Madrid or Sevilla at HT | 64.8% | 61.4% | 56.6% | 1.08× | 1.63 |
| Sevilla or draw at HT | 44.7% | 42.9% | 65.0% | 0.66× | 2.33 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or draw (1UP) | 90.9% | 93.3% | 77.9% | 1.20× | 1.07 |
| Sevilla or draw (1UP) | 25.0% | 31.1% | 60.4% | 0.52× | 3.22 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid or draw in 2nd half | 88.3% | 88.8% | 72.4% | 1.23× | 1.13 |
| Real Madrid or Sevilla in 2nd half | 71.9% | 74.1% | 66.8% | 1.11× | 1.35 |
| Sevilla or draw in 2nd half | 39.8% | 41.4% | 60.7% | 0.68× | 2.41 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 53.4% | 50.2% | 62.4% | 0.80× | 1.99 |
| Neither half drawn | 46.6% | 49.8% | 37.6% | 1.33× | 2.01 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (DNB) | 89.2% | 87.2% | 62.0% | 1.41× | 1.15 |
| Sevilla (DNB) | 10.8% | 12.8% | 38.0% | 0.34× | 7.82 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to score first | 73.8% | 75.6% | 55.2% | 1.37× | 1.32 |
| Sevilla to score first | 21.6% | 22.7% | 39.6% | 0.57× | 4.41 |
| No goal scored | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 0.81× | 23.14 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 54.2% | 51.3% | 44.4% | 1.16× | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 48.7% | 55.6% | 0.88× | 2.05 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 38.2% | 38.4% | 40.6% | 0.95× | 2.60 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 32.6% | 34.5% | 35.0% | 0.99× | 2.90 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 21.5% | 27.8% | 9.5% | 2.93× | 3.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 7.6% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 0.55× | 12.07 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 89.2% | 85.6% | 85.8% | 1.00× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 10.8% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.01× | 6.96 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 74.0% | 74.0% | 70.9% | 1.04× | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 26.0% | 26.0% | 29.1% | 0.89× | 3.85 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 62.7% | 66.0% | 59.8% | 1.10× | 1.51 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 22.0% | 20.8% | 23.5% | 0.89× | 4.80 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 0.95× | 9.30 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 0.87× | 20.14 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 84.7% | 83.3% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 15.3% | 16.7% | 16.8% | 0.99× | 6.00 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 60.7% | 59.5% | 54.9% | 1.08× | 1.68 |
| A half without a goal | 39.3% | 40.5% | 45.1% | 0.90× | 2.47 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 44.1% | 42.1% | 49.1% | 0.86× | 2.37 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.6% | 30.8% | 23.8% | 1.29× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 18.6% | 20.3% | 24.9% | 0.82× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.74× | 54.33 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to score exactly 0 | 49.6% | 43.0% | 30.1% | 1.43× | 2.33 |
| Sevilla to score exactly 1 | 34.8% | 33.8% | 37.9% | 0.89× | 2.96 |
| Sevilla to score exactly 2 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 21.8% | 0.59× | 7.77 |
| Sevilla to score 3+ | 3.4% | 4.6% | 10.5% | 0.44× | 21.82 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to score 3+ | 42.8% | 35.2% | 19.8% | 1.78× | 2.84 |
| Real Madrid to score exactly 2 | 26.2% | 26.6% | 22.5% | 1.18× | 3.77 |
| Real Madrid to score exactly 1 | 21.9% | 23.3% | 38.3% | 0.61× | 4.29 |
| Real Madrid to score exactly 0 | 9.1% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.53× | 9.69 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid leading at HT | 55.3% | 57.1% | 35.0% | 1.63× | 1.75 |
| Draw at HT | 35.2% | 38.6% | 43.4% | 0.89× | 2.59 |
| Sevilla leading at HT | 9.6% | 10.2% | 21.7% | 0.47× | 9.79 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid -1: 1 | 52.1% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Real Madrid -1: 2 | 25.0% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
| Real Madrid -1: X | 22.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (0:1) | 52.1% | 51.3% | 20.6% | 2.49× | 1.95 |
| Sevilla (0:1) | 25.0% | 27.0% | 53.7% | 0.50× | 3.71 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.9% | 24.2% | 25.8% | 0.94× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla (0:2) | 47.9% | 51.4% | 79.4% | 0.65× | 1.95 |
| Real Madrid (0:2) | 30.1% | 28.2% | 10.2% | 2.77× | 3.54 |
| Draw (0:2) | 21.9% | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.93× | 4.92 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla (0:3) | 69.9% | 72.4% | 89.8% | 0.81× | 1.38 |
| Draw (0:3) | 15.5% | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2.25× | 6.26 |
| Real Madrid (0:3) | 14.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 3.13× | 10.01 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla (0:4) | 85.4% | 91.8% | 96.8% | 0.95× | 1.09 |
| Draw (0:4) | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.97× | 21.50 |
| Real Madrid (0:4) | 6.0% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 4.86× | 21.72 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (1:0) | 90.9% | 92.6% | 71.6% | 1.29× | 1.08 |
| Draw (1:0) | 6.7% | 6.9% | 17.6% | 0.39× | 14.50 |
| Sevilla (1:0) | 2.3% | 3.3% | 10.9% | 0.30× | 30.72 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (2:0) | 97.7% | 96.8% | 89.1% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 1.9% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 0.32× | 43.69 |
| Sevilla (2:0) | 0.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 0.58× | 43.78 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 48.7% | 48.8% | 51.2% | 0.95× | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 28.1% | 26.3% | 26.0% | 1.01× | 3.81 |
| Halves equal | 23.2% | 24.3% | 22.9% | 1.06× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to concede | 50.4% | 53.1% | 69.9% | 0.76× | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 49.6% | 46.9% | 30.1% | 1.56× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid clean sheet in 1st half | 76.3% | 77.5% | 63.2% | 1.23× | 1.29 |
| Real Madrid to concede in 1st half | 23.7% | 22.5% | 36.8% | 0.61× | 4.44 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid clean sheet in 2nd half | 65.0% | 60.2% | 47.9% | 1.26× | 1.66 |
| Real Madrid to concede in 2nd half | 35.0% | 39.8% | 52.1% | 0.76× | 2.51 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid over 2.5 corners | 91.1% | 89.2% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Real Madrid over 3.5 corners | 82.2% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Real Madrid over 4.5 corners | 70.7% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Real Madrid over 5.5 corners | 58.0% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Real Madrid under 6.5 corners | 54.5% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Real Madrid over 6.5 corners | 45.5% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Real Madrid under 5.5 corners | 42.0% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Real Madrid under 4.5 corners | 29.3% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Real Madrid under 3.5 corners | 17.8% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
| Real Madrid under 2.5 corners | 8.9% | 10.8% | — | — | 9.28 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid over 0.5 goals | 90.9% | 92.2% | 80.4% | 1.15× | 1.08 |
| Real Madrid under 3.5 goals | 78.1% | 77.7% | 92.4% | 0.84× | 1.29 |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | 68.0% | 42.1% | 1.61× | 1.47 |
| Real Madrid under 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 58.6% | 80.2% | 0.73× | 1.71 |
| Real Madrid over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 41.4% | 19.8% | 2.09× | 2.42 |
| Real Madrid under 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.0% | 57.9% | 0.55× | 3.12 |
| Real Madrid over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 22.3% | 7.6% | 2.94× | 4.49 |
| Real Madrid under 0.5 goals | 9.1% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 0.40× | 12.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half | 72.2% | 79.0% | 85.9% | 0.92× | 1.27 |
| Real Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half | 64.6% | 65.0% | 47.8% | 1.36× | 1.54 |
| Real Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half | 35.4% | 35.0% | 52.2% | 0.67× | 2.86 |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half | 27.8% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 1.48× | 4.77 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid scores more in 2nd half | 44.0% | 42.1% | 40.2% | 1.05× | 2.38 |
| Real Madrid scores more in 1st half | 28.7% | 27.9% | 27.6% | 1.01× | 3.58 |
| Real Madrid scores equally in both | 27.3% | 27.9% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.58 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 63.9% | 60.0% | 47.3% | 1.27× | 1.67 |
| Sevilla (home no bet) | 36.1% | 40.0% | 52.7% | 0.76× | 2.50 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid even goals | 50.4% | 50.7% | 47.3% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| Real Madrid odd goals | 49.6% | 49.3% | 52.7% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 28.1% | 28.2% | 22.1% | 1.28× | 3.54 |
| HT 0-0 | 27.0% | 28.2% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.55 |
| HT 2-0 | 14.6% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 1.69× | 9.05 |
| Any other HT score | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.53× | 14.47 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 0.68× | 14.49 |
| HT 0-1 | 7.3% | 6.9% | 16.0% | 0.43× | 14.49 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0.77× | 42.00 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.69× | 42.20 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.43× | 42.19 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.00× | 42.23 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid at HT / Real Madrid at FT | 51.1% | 53.4% | 26.2% | 2.04× | 1.87 |
| Draw at HT / Real Madrid at FT | 21.2% | 21.6% | 17.8% | 1.22× | 4.62 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 9.9% | 6.1% | 14.2% | 0.43× | 16.52 |
| Draw at HT / Sevilla at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | 11.6% | 0.30× | 28.60 |
| Sevilla at HT / Sevilla at FT | 4.2% | 3.5% | 13.2% | 0.27× | 28.60 |
| Real Madrid at HT / Draw at FT | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 0.67× | 28.62 |
| Sevilla at HT / Draw at FT | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 0.57× | 28.65 |
| Sevilla at HT / Real Madrid at FT | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.34× | 28.65 |
| Real Madrid at HT / Sevilla at FT | 0.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 0.92× | 28.72 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to score last | 73.8% | 73.1% | 54.8% | 1.33× | 1.37 |
| Sevilla to score last | 21.6% | 25.5% | 40.0% | 0.64× | 3.92 |
| No goal scored | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 0.81× | 23.14 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.5% | 95.6% | 94.7% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Real Madrid to lead by 1 at any time | 83.0% | 87.6% | 62.8% | 1.40× | 1.14 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 62.2% | 61.4% | 41.8% | 1.47× | 1.63 |
| Real Madrid to lead by 2 at any time | 57.5% | 54.8% | 26.3% | 2.08× | 1.82 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 33.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 1.74× | 3.36 |
| Real Madrid to lead by 3 at any time | 33.0% | 29.7% | 12.5% | 2.38× | 3.37 |
| Sevilla to lead by 1 at any time | 24.3% | 19.6% | 47.1% | 0.42× | 5.10 |
| Sevilla to lead by 2 at any time | 4.9% | 1.7% | 15.8% | 0.11× | 59.81 |
| Sevilla to lead by 3 at any time | 0.8% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 0.33× | 63.69 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid most corners | 72.6% | 70.6% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Sevilla most corners | 19.0% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.23 |
| Corners level | 8.4% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.97 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.1% | 87.4% | 88.6% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 77.7% | 78.7% | 72.8% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 75.4% | 78.6% | 80.5% | 0.98× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.1% | 72.4% | 69.1% | 1.05× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.4% | 63.3% | 60.9% | 1.04× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 58.1% | 59.1% | 68.6% | 0.86× | 1.69 |
| 3-6 goals | 56.0% | 59.1% | 47.6% | 1.24× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 50.4% | 53.2% | 43.9% | 1.21× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 44.1% | 43.6% | 49.1% | 0.89× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.7% | 39.2% | 35.7% | 1.10× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 35.7% | 39.2% | 44.9% | 0.87× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.6% | 35.2% | 23.8% | 1.48× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 28.0% | 30.2% | 20.1% | 1.50× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 16.3% | 18.8% | 12.0% | 1.57× | 5.31 |
| 7+ goals | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.03× | 39.14 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid never behind | 71.1% | 76.9% | 52.9% | 1.45× | 1.30 |
| Sevilla never behind | 12.5% | 12.2% | 37.2% | 0.33× | 8.22 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 53.6% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 46.4% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.7% | 51.6% | 54.3% | 0.95× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.3% | 48.4% | 45.7% | 1.06× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.4% | 52.0% | 49.7% | 1.05× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.6% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 0.95× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.5% | 95.4% | 94.7% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 90.7% | 92.3% | 93.8% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 82.3% | 75.1% | 1.09× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80.0% | 77.3% | 85.7% | 0.90× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62.6% | 61.7% | 73.8% | 0.84× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 58.7% | 49.9% | 1.17× | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 41.3% | 50.1% | 0.83× | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 38.3% | 26.2% | 1.46× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20.0% | 22.7% | 14.3% | 1.58× | 4.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 17.7% | 24.9% | 0.71× | 5.64 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 1.26× | 12.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 0.86× | 21.88 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 96.0% | 97.2% | 97.4% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 89.6% | 86.8% | 93.3% | 0.93× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 76.3% | 75.9% | 66.8% | 1.14× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 75.8% | 75.9% | 83.8% | 0.91× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 51.9% | 51.9% | 65.7% | 0.79× | 1.93 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 48.1% | 48.1% | 34.3% | 1.40× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 24.2% | 24.1% | 16.2% | 1.49× | 4.14 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 23.7% | 24.1% | 33.2% | 0.73× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 10.4% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 1.98× | 7.55 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.09× | 35.67 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 85.5% | 89.0% | 89.9% | 0.99× | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 73.0% | 71.7% | 67.7% | 1.06× | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 62.4% | 63.4% | 70.1% | 0.90× | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 37.6% | 36.6% | 29.9% | 1.22× | 2.73 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 27.0% | 28.3% | 32.3% | 0.88× | 3.54 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 14.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 1.09× | 9.07 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.2% | 83.2% | 81.9% | 1.02× | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 73.5% | 77.4% | 79.2% | 0.98× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.3% | 53.1% | 46.6% | 1.14× | 1.88 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.7% | 46.9% | 53.4% | 0.88× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 26.6% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 1.09× | 4.42 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.8% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 0.92× | 5.97 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla not to score in both halves | 91.7% | 90.2% | 81.0% | 1.11× | 1.11 |
| Real Madrid not to score in both halves | 52.1% | 55.3% | 73.7% | 0.75× | 1.81 |
| Real Madrid to score in both halves | 47.9% | 44.7% | 26.3% | 1.70× | 2.24 |
| Sevilla to score in both halves | 8.3% | 9.8% | 19.0% | 0.52× | 10.17 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 45.8% | 50.7% | 55.6% | 0.91× | 1.97 |
| Only Real Madrid scores | 45.1% | 50.7% | 24.9% | 2.04× | 1.97 |
| Only Sevilla scores | 4.6% | 4.6% | 14.4% | 0.32× | 21.63 |
| Neither team scores | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 0.87× | 21.63 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 23.9% | 0.94× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 21.7% | 22.6% | 25.3% | 0.89× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.3% | 17.5% | 12.0% | 1.46× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 14.0% | 12.1% | 19.6% | 0.62× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 10.7% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 1.46× | 8.25 |
| 6 or more goals | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 1.24× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 0.84× | 22.40 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 35.4% | 37.3% | 38.0% | 0.98× | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 27.0% | 28.3% | 32.3% | 0.88× | 3.53 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 23.1% | 21.6% | 19.9% | 1.08× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 14.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 1.08× | 9.15 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 53.3% | 51.4% | 46.6% | 1.10× | 1.95 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.9% | 29.2% | 35.4% | 0.83× | 3.42 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.8% | 16.6% | 18.1% | 0.91× | 6.04 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla not to win both halves | 98.9% | 97.2% | 94.8% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Real Madrid not to win both halves | 66.7% | 69.9% | 88.1% | 0.79× | 1.43 |
| Real Madrid to win both halves | 33.3% | 30.1% | 11.9% | 2.53× | 3.33 |
| Sevilla to win both halves | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 0.53× | 36.22 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win either half | 82.2% | 83.4% | 62.4% | 1.34× | 1.20 |
| Sevilla to win neither half | 79.8% | 80.0% | 55.9% | 1.43× | 1.25 |
| Sevilla to win either half | 20.2% | 20.0% | 44.1% | 0.45× | 5.01 |
| Real Madrid to win neither half | 17.8% | 16.6% | 37.6% | 0.44× | 6.03 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla not to win to nil | 95.4% | 96.1% | 85.6% | 1.12× | 1.04 |
| Real Madrid not to win to nil | 54.9% | 53.9% | 75.1% | 0.72× | 1.86 |
| Real Madrid to win to nil | 45.1% | 46.1% | 24.9% | 1.85× | 2.17 |
| Sevilla to win to nil | 4.6% | 3.9% | 14.4% | 0.27× | 25.53 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 30.1% | 27.6% | 10.2% | 2.71× | 3.62 |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 22.9% | 24.1% | 25.8% | 0.93× | 4.15 |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 21.9% | 24.1% | 10.5% | 2.29× | 4.15 |
| Draw | 16.0% | 17.0% | 25.4% | 0.67× | 5.87 |
| Sevilla by 1 | 6.7% | 7.2% | 17.6% | 0.41× | 13.91 |
| Sevilla by 2 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.1% | 0.38× | 36.82 |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.69× | 36.86 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.13 xGSevilla 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 3' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 6' |
Real Madrid |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 15' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 16' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 29' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.18 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 36' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 42' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 48' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Real Madrid |
Yan Diomande | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 54' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
| 58' |
Sevilla |
Felix Correia | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 59' |
Sevilla |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 62' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Stassin |
| 73' |
Sevilla |
Manu Bueno | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 79' |
Sevilla |
Manu Bueno | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Stassin |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Yan Diomande | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 83' |
Sevilla |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssouf Fofana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.65 |
| Felix Correia AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.54 |
| Robbie Ure FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Peque AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Ruben Vargas AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Manu Bueno Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lucas Stassin Sub | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| José Ángel Carmona Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Diomande AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.92 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.79 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.68 | 0.13 | 1.07 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Arda Güler DMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| Endrick AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eder Militão Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |