Real Madrid v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 9
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.36 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.33 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
54.2%
Draw
22.5%
Villarreal win
23.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.87–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.32–1.39 | 2-1 9% | 71% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 4.33 xGVillarreal 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 8' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 19' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 19' |
 Villarreal |
Tani Oluwaseyi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 22' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.51 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Thomas Partey | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Villarreal |
Tani Oluwaseyi | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 41' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tani Oluwaseyi |
| 42' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 44' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 55' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 59' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 59' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 63' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 68' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 72' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 73' |
Villarreal |
Thomas Partey | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brahim Diaz |
| 87' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 89' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 91' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrygo |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1.18 | 0.75 | 1.19 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.65 |
| Eder Militão DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 84 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 1.18 |
| Franco Mastantuono AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 1.04 |
| Arda Güler AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Dani Ceballos DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.90 |
| Jude Bellingham Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Arnau Tenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.10 | 0.72 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye ML | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Alberto Moleiro FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Alfonso Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adrià Alti Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |