Real Oviedo v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 7
On target
0 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.63 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
39.5%
Draw
27.5%
Alaves win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.30 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 0.63 xGAlaves 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Oviedo |
Lucas Ahijado | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 11' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Costas |
| 16' |
 Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.96 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 24' |
Real Oviedo |
David Costas | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 31' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 37' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 51' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Diabate |
| 70' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 79' |
Real Oviedo |
Lucas Ahijado | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Real Oviedo |
David Costas | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 93' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier López |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ángel Pérez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ville Koski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Victor Parada DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Jon Guridi MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.96 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.96 |
| Ibrahim Diabate FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach DML | 47 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Mañas Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Boyé Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Benavídez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Santiago Cazorla AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.02 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Horatiu Moldovan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Reina AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Ahijado DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haissem Hassan AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Colombatto DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Fonseca DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Fernández Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ilyas Chaira Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Forés Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nacho Vidal Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |