Real Oviedo v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 9
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.27 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
28.0%
Draw
31.7%
Girona win
40.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.89–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.31 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 1.27 xGGirona 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 37' |
 Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier López |
| 44' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | David Carmo |
| 48' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 50' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 56' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 58' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 66' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 67' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 71' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.89 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Thiago Fernández |
| 76' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 85' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Moreno |
| 86' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Claudio Echeverri |
| 92' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Lemar MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Marc-André ter Stegen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Viktor Tsygankov FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Iván Martín MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Axel Witsel Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilyas Chaira AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.91 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| David Carmo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Santiago Colombatto DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Haissem Hassan AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thiago Fernández Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.96 |
| Nicolás Fonseca Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Ahijado Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leander Dendoncker Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |