Real Oviedo v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 9
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+0.21 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
38.5%
Draw
29.9%
Sevilla win
31.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 0.79 xGSevilla 0.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 25' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 28' |
Sevilla |
Nianzou Kouassi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 31' |
 Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Goal | Alberto Reina |
| 36' |
Sevilla |
Nianzou Kouassi | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 36' |
Sevilla |
Nianzou Kouassi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 45' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 48' |
Real Oviedo |
Dani Calvo | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thiago Fernández |
| 48' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 66' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 73' |
Real Oviedo |
Nicolás Fonseca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 75' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Cazorla | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 90' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juanlu Sanchez AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Ruben Vargas AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.06 |
| Oso DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Batista Mendy DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sow AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Andrés Castrín Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manu Bueno Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nianzou Kouassi DC | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Suazo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ilyas Chaira AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolás Fonseca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thiago Fernández AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.04 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Colombatto Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rahim Alhassane Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |