Real Oviedo v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.87 – -0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
31.9%
Draw
31.2%
Valencia win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.33 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 1.87 xGValencia 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 1' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Bailly |
| 5' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 24' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 26' |
Real Oviedo |
Luka Ilic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 29' |
Real Oviedo |
David Costas | 0.41 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Thiago Fernández |
| 39' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thierry Correia |
| 41' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 42' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Ilic |
| 43' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Oviedo |
Kwasi Sibo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nacho Vidal |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Luka Ilic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Real Oviedo |
Luka Ilic | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 69' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 81' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 90' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Thierry Correia | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | André Almeida |
| 94' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego López |
| 94' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largie Ramazani AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| José Gayá DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Javier Guerra DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Filip Ugrinic AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld AML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| André Almeida Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Diego López Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Beltrán Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Costas DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.87 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Thiago Fernández AML | 71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| Nicolás Fonseca DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Luka Ilic AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.89 |
| Ilyas Chaira Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Santiago Colombatto Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Dani Calvo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |