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Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Real Salt Lake win
53.5%
model 53.0%
Draw
23.3%
model 24.7%
LA Galaxy win
23.2%
model 22.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.7%
  2. 1-0 9.9%
  3. 2-1 9.8%
  4. 2-0 9.2%
  5. 0-0 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.553.5% Under 2.546.5%
BTTS yes54.8% BTTS no45.2%
Real Salt Lake 1+82.7% Real Salt Lake 2+52.4%
LA Galaxy 1+65.5% LA Galaxy 2+28.7%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
61/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
LA Galaxy under 1.5 goals
Away goals O/U · usually 61%
71.5% fair odds 1.40
moderate signal · 1221 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Real Salt Lake not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Real Salt Lake.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Salt Lake have an estimated 53.5% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 23.2% for LA Galaxy. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Real Salt Lake and 1.06 for LA Galaxy.

Why Real Salt Lake

Nothing in the data singles out Real Salt Lake.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why LA Galaxy can win

Nothing in the data singles out LA Galaxy.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Real Salt Lake, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LA Galaxy, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Salt Lake: 48% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LA Galaxy: 45% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Salt Lake are the model's most likely outcome at 53.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 61/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.76–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.73–1.06 1-1 12% 53% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to win 52.5% 51.5% 45.3% 1.14× 1.94
Draw 25.0% 24.5% 24.8% 0.99× 4.09
LA Galaxy to win 22.6% 24.5% 30.0% 0.82× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake & not both score 28.0% 25.2% 21.1% 1.19× 3.97
Real Salt Lake & both teams score 24.5% 21.8% 24.4% 0.90× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.2% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
LA Galaxy & both teams score 11.6% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.54
LA Galaxy & not both score 11.0% 13.3% 12.1% 1.10× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.8% 8.3% 5.8% 1.45× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake & over 1.5 42.4% 40.3% 37.2% 1.08× 2.48
Real Salt Lake & under 3.5 34.3% 30.8% 28.4% 1.08× 3.25
Real Salt Lake & over 2.5 33.2% 30.8% 31.0% 0.99× 3.25
Real Salt Lake & under 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 14.4% 1.25× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 18.6% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.55
Draw & under 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.55
Real Salt Lake & over 3.5 18.2% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.2% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.55
LA Galaxy & over 1.5 16.6% 18.0% 23.7% 0.76× 5.56
LA Galaxy & under 3.5 16.6% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
LA Galaxy & over 2.5 13.2% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
Real Salt Lake & under 1.5 10.1% 12.8% 8.2% 1.56× 7.79
LA Galaxy & under 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 9.6% 0.83× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.8% 7.9% 5.8% 1.38× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
LA Galaxy & under 1.5 5.9% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.63
LA Galaxy & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 11.3% 0.70× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (1UP) 66.8% 70.2% — — 1.42
LA Galaxy (1UP) 40.7% 38.5% — — 2.60
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (2UP) 52.5% 55.3% — — 1.81
LA Galaxy (2UP) 22.6% 23.8% — — 4.20
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to win 2nd half 42.6% 42.0% — — 2.38
2nd half drawn 34.6% 34.0% — — 2.94
LA Galaxy to win 2nd half 22.8% 24.3% — — 4.11
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.7% 87.1% — — 1.15
LA Galaxy under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 52.5% — — 1.91
LA Galaxy over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 47.5% — — 2.11
LA Galaxy over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.3% 12.9% — — 7.74
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.1% 74.5% — — 1.34
Real Salt Lake over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.7% 63.1% — — 1.58
Real Salt Lake under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.3% 36.9% — — 2.71
Real Salt Lake over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.9% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (+2.5) 87.1% 88.5% 89.4% 0.99× 1.13
Real Salt Lake (+0.5) 77.4% 78.5% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
LA Galaxy (+1.5) 70.8% 73.6% 76.8% 0.96× 1.36
Real Salt Lake (-0.5) 52.5% 52.4% 45.3% 1.16× 1.91
LA Galaxy (+0.5) 47.5% 47.6% 54.7% 0.87× 2.10
Real Salt Lake (-1.5) 29.2% 26.4% 23.2% 1.13× 3.79
LA Galaxy (-0.5) 22.6% 21.5% 30.0% 0.72× 4.65
Real Salt Lake (-2.5) 12.9% 11.5% 10.6% 1.09× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to concede 82.3% 81.5% 82.3% 0.99× 1.23
LA Galaxy clean sheet 17.7% 18.5% 17.7% 1.05× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to concede in 1st half 52.5% 50.9% — — 1.97
LA Galaxy clean sheet in 1st half 47.5% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to concede in 2nd half 62.7% 61.9% — — 1.62
LA Galaxy clean sheet in 2nd half 37.3% 38.1% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy over 2.5 corners 82.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
LA Galaxy under 6.5 corners 71.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
LA Galaxy over 3.5 corners 69.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
LA Galaxy under 5.5 corners 59.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
LA Galaxy over 4.5 corners 54.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
LA Galaxy under 4.5 corners 45.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
LA Galaxy over 5.5 corners 40.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
LA Galaxy under 3.5 corners 30.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
LA Galaxy over 6.5 corners 28.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
LA Galaxy under 2.5 corners 17.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.5% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
LA Galaxy under 2.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
LA Galaxy under 1.5 goals 71.4% 71.8% 61.2% 1.17× 1.39
LA Galaxy over 0.5 goals 65.3% 68.0% 73.3% 0.93× 1.47
LA Galaxy under 0.5 goals 34.7% 32.0% 26.7% 1.20× 3.12
LA Galaxy over 1.5 goals 28.6% 28.2% 38.8% 0.73× 3.55
LA Galaxy over 2.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 16.7% 0.46× 13.05
LA Galaxy over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.5% 6.0% 0.42× 39.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 94.0% — — 1.06
LA Galaxy under 0.5 in 1st half 65.5% 70.1% — — 1.43
LA Galaxy over 0.5 in 1st half 34.5% 29.9% — — 3.35
LA Galaxy over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 6.0% — — 16.53
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy scores equally in both 44.7% 43.7% — — 2.29
LA Galaxy scores more in 2nd half 34.6% 33.4% — — 3.00
LA Galaxy scores more in 1st half 20.7% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (away no bet) 67.8% 66.4% 64.6% 1.03× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 32.2% 33.6% 35.4% 0.95× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy even goals 56.0% 56.9% 53.6% 1.06× 1.76
LA Galaxy odd goals 44.0% 43.1% 46.4% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.3% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.7% 16.8% — — 5.97
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.3% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.7% 32.3% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.8% 55.0% — — 1.82
Real Salt Lake to score 2+ in a row 43.6% 38.8% — — 2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.0% 19.5% — — 5.12
LA Galaxy to score 2+ in a row 20.3% 19.5% — — 5.13
Real Salt Lake to score 3+ in a row 17.5% 16.2% — — 6.19
LA Galaxy to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 2.6% — — 38.10
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy corners (+3.5) 83.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Real Salt Lake corners (+3.5) 80.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
LA Galaxy corners (+2.5) 76.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
Real Salt Lake corners (+2.5) 72.8% 70.8% — — 1.41
LA Galaxy corners (+1.5) 67.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Real Salt Lake corners (+1.5) 63.5% 61.9% — — 1.62
LA Galaxy corners (-1.5) 36.5% 38.1% — — 2.62
Real Salt Lake corners (-1.5) 32.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
LA Galaxy corners (-2.5) 27.2% 29.2% — — 3.42
Real Salt Lake corners (-2.5) 23.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
LA Galaxy corners (-3.5) 19.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
Real Salt Lake corners (-3.5) 16.6% 20.2% — — 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 33.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 62.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 27.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.9% 11.5% 10.4% 1.11× 8.71
1-0 10.1% 11.5% 8.2% 1.39× 8.72
2-0 9.2% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
0-0 6.8% 7.4% 5.8% 1.29× 13.51
0-1 5.9% 7.4% 6.4% 1.15× 13.51
1-2 6.0% 7.4% 7.7% 0.97× 13.51
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.51
3-0 5.3% 7.4% 4.2% 1.77× 13.51
3-1 5.6% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.51
0-2 3.4% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
1-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.32
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.30
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.54× 58.32
4-0 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.31
4-1 2.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.31
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.32
Any other score 3.6% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (2nd half DNB) 65.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
LA Galaxy (2nd half DNB) 34.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake leading at HT (DNB) 67.6% 73.7% — — 1.36
LA Galaxy leading at HT (DNB) 32.4% 26.3% — — 3.80
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake or draw (1X) 77.4% 75.5% 70.0% 1.08× 1.32
Real Salt Lake or LA Galaxy (12) 75.0% 75.5% 75.2% 1.00× 1.32
LA Galaxy or draw (X2) 47.5% 48.5% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake or draw at HT 81.2% 84.0% — — 1.19
LA Galaxy or draw at HT 60.8% 61.0% — — 1.64
Real Salt Lake or LA Galaxy at HT 58.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake or draw (1UP) 77.4% 83.6% — — 1.20
LA Galaxy or draw (1UP) 47.5% 53.0% — — 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake or draw in 2nd half 77.2% 75.7% — — 1.32
Real Salt Lake or LA Galaxy in 2nd half 65.4% 66.0% — — 1.52
LA Galaxy or draw in 2nd half 57.4% 58.0% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.4% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (DNB) 69.9% 67.5% 60.2% 1.12× 1.48
LA Galaxy (DNB) 30.1% 32.5% 39.8% 0.82× 3.08
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to score first 57.8% 62.5% — — 1.60
LA Galaxy to score first 35.4% 32.6% — — 3.07
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% — — 13.25
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.3% 51.3% 61.3% 0.84× 1.95
Not both teams to score 45.7% 48.7% 38.7% 1.26× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.4% 41.6% 51.1% 0.81× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 35.4% 38.4% 29.5% 1.30× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.9% 12.4% 10.4% 1.19× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 10.3% 12.4% 9.2% 1.34× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.3% 85.6% 79.5% 1.08× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.7% 14.4% 20.5% 0.70× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.3% 73.5% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.7% 26.5% — — 3.78
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.5% 60.1% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 24.3% 21.3% — — 4.70
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.8% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 5.3% 6.7% — — 14.83
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.8% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.2% 16.6% — — 6.02
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.5% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.5% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 47.2% 43.0% 1.10× 2.12
4-6 goals 28.1% 26.6% 33.0% 0.81× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.7% 22.9% 20.2% 1.14× 4.36
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.32
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
LA Galaxy to score exactly 0 34.7% 33.8% 26.7% 1.27× 2.96
LA Galaxy to score exactly 2 19.4% 19.5% 22.2% 0.88× 5.12
LA Galaxy to score 3+ 9.1% 8.6% 16.7% 0.51× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 1 30.7% 32.6% 31.1% 1.05× 3.07
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 2 26.5% 26.5% 26.4% 1.01× 3.77
Real Salt Lake to score 3+ 25.0% 26.5% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 0 17.7% 18.8% 17.7% 1.06× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Real Salt Lake leading at HT 39.2% 39.0% — — 2.56
LA Galaxy leading at HT 18.8% 16.0% — — 6.24
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake -1: 2 47.5% 46.9% — — 2.13
Real Salt Lake -1: 1 29.2% 26.5% — — 3.77
Real Salt Lake -1: X 23.3% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:1) 47.5% 46.1% 54.7% 0.84× 2.17
Real Salt Lake (0:1) 29.2% 27.0% 23.2% 1.16× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 23.3% 24.2% 22.2% 1.09× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:2) 70.8% 75.6% 76.8% 0.98× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 16.3% 15.2% 12.7% 1.20× 6.57
Real Salt Lake (0:2) 12.9% 11.0% 10.6% 1.04× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:3) 87.1% 90.6% 89.4% 1.01× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 8.2% 5.8% 6.7% 0.87× 17.23
Real Salt Lake (0:3) 4.7% 2.4% 4.1% 0.59× 41.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:4) 95.3% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 81.54
Real Salt Lake (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 81.74
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (1:0) 77.4% 78.6% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 14.0% 12.7% 17.1% 0.74× 7.86
LA Galaxy (1:0) 8.5% 6.9% 13.0% 0.53× 14.48
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (2:0) 91.5% 94.0% 87.0% 1.08× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.1% 6.4% 8.6% 0.74× 15.67
LA Galaxy (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 4.5% 0.51× 43.77
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.4% 48.7% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to concede 65.3% 66.6% 73.3% 0.91× 1.50
Real Salt Lake clean sheet 34.7% 33.4% 26.7% 1.25× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake clean sheet in 1st half 65.5% 70.5% — — 1.42
Real Salt Lake to concede in 1st half 34.5% 29.5% — — 3.39
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake clean sheet in 2nd half 53.0% 52.6% — — 1.90
Real Salt Lake to concede in 2nd half 47.0% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake over 2.5 corners 80.8% 81.0% — — 1.24
Real Salt Lake under 6.5 corners 74.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Real Salt Lake over 3.5 corners 66.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Real Salt Lake under 5.5 corners 62.7% 62.3% — — 1.61
Real Salt Lake over 4.5 corners 51.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Real Salt Lake under 4.5 corners 48.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Real Salt Lake over 5.5 corners 37.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
Real Salt Lake under 3.5 corners 33.5% 33.3% — — 3.00
Real Salt Lake over 6.5 corners 25.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Real Salt Lake under 2.5 corners 19.2% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 3.5 goals 90.3% 92.2% 90.6% 1.02× 1.09
Real Salt Lake over 0.5 goals 82.3% 82.2% 82.3% 1.00× 1.22
Real Salt Lake under 2.5 goals 75.0% 74.2% 75.0% 0.99× 1.35
Real Salt Lake over 1.5 goals 51.6% 53.2% 51.3% 1.04× 1.88
Real Salt Lake under 1.5 goals 48.4% 46.8% 48.7% 0.96× 2.14
Real Salt Lake over 2.5 goals 25.0% 25.8% 25.0% 1.03× 3.88
Real Salt Lake under 0.5 goals 17.7% 17.8% 17.7% 1.01× 5.62
Real Salt Lake over 3.5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 9.4% 0.83× 12.81
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 1.5 in 1st half 82.9% 84.1% — — 1.19
Real Salt Lake over 0.5 in 1st half 52.5% 50.7% — — 1.97
Real Salt Lake under 0.5 in 1st half 47.5% 49.3% — — 2.03
Real Salt Lake over 1.5 in 1st half 17.1% 15.9% — — 6.29
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake scores more in 2nd half 40.0% 41.6% — — 2.41
Real Salt Lake scores equally in both 33.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Real Salt Lake scores more in 1st half 26.6% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.5% 51.4% 45.3% 1.14× 1.94
LA Galaxy (home no bet) 47.5% 48.6% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake even goals 51.6% 50.7% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
Real Salt Lake odd goals 48.4% 49.3% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.2% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 1-0 23.1% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 13.1% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 9.9% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 2-0 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.52
Any other HT score 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 0-2 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 32.3% 32.9% — — 3.04
Draw at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 17.5% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.7% — — 5.97
LA Galaxy at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 11.6% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 9.2% 6.1% — — 16.43
Real Salt Lake at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
LA Galaxy at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.85
LA Galaxy at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.92
Real Salt Lake at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to score last 57.9% 56.7% — — 1.76
LA Galaxy to score last 35.3% 38.5% — — 2.60
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% — — 13.25
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.2% 92.6% — — 1.08
Real Salt Lake to lead by 1 at any time 66.8% 69.3% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.0% 44.4% — — 2.25
LA Galaxy to lead by 1 at any time 40.7% 39.1% — — 2.56
Real Salt Lake to lead by 2 at any time 35.8% 34.8% — — 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.0% 14.9% — — 6.73
Real Salt Lake to lead by 3 at any time 15.4% 14.8% — — 6.76
LA Galaxy to lead by 2 at any time 13.4% 10.6% — — 9.41
LA Galaxy to lead by 3 at any time 3.5% 1.6% — — 61.80
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy most corners 46.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Real Salt Lake most corners 42.6% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 10.6% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 83.4% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.2% 78.7% 73.2% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.9% 72.3% 75.9% 0.95× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.9% 72.3% 69.0% 1.05× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.7% 63.3% 57.4% 1.10× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.3% 58.7% 1.08× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.4% 53.1% 56.3% 0.94× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.4% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.4% 48.4% 49.4% 0.98× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.5% 43.6% 34.2% 1.28× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.7% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.1% 30.2% 33.0% 0.91× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.1% 24.5% 26.2% 0.94× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.6% 14.8% 17.2% 0.86× 6.76
7+ goals 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 0.63× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake never behind 52.5% 62.4% — — 1.60
LA Galaxy never behind 26.5% 29.8% — — 3.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.9% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.1% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.1% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.9% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.2% 92.3% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.0% 82.3% 78.8% 1.04× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.3% 77.3% 79.8% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.5% 66.3% 63.0% 1.05× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.7% 52.5% 60.2% 0.87× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 47.3% 47.5% 39.8% 1.19× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.5% 33.7% 37.0% 0.91× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.7% 22.7% 20.2% 1.13× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 15.0% 17.7% 21.2% 0.83× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 10.9% 0.71× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.0% 92.4% 87.8% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.2% 81.1% 74.8% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.9% 67.5% 74.9% 0.90× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.8% 61.9% 51.8% 1.19× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.2% 38.1% 48.2% 0.79× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.1% 32.5% 25.1% 1.29× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.8% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.0% 7.6% 12.2% 0.62× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.61
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.7% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.8% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.6% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.2% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.3% 10.9% — — 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.8% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.2% 20.5% — — 4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to score in both halves 83.8% 84.4% — — 1.19
Real Salt Lake not to score in both halves 67.1% 70.0% — — 1.43
Real Salt Lake to score in both halves 32.9% 30.0% — — 3.34
LA Galaxy to score in both halves 16.2% 15.6% — — 6.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.3% 53.8% 61.3% 0.88× 1.86
Only Real Salt Lake scores 28.0% 26.1% 21.1% 1.24× 3.84
Only LA Galaxy scores 11.0% 11.0% 12.1% 0.91× 9.07
Neither team scores 6.8% 7.1% 5.8% 1.24× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.5% 22.6% 19.7% 1.14× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.0% 17.5% 14.5% 1.20× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.4% 15.9% 1.10× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.8% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.4% 7.6% 10.9% 0.70× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 31.2% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 21.3% 21.4% — — 4.68
3+ goals in 1st half 11.3% 10.8% — — 9.22
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.4% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 16.8% — — 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to win both halves 95.7% 97.2% — — 1.03
Real Salt Lake not to win both halves 83.2% 83.5% — — 1.20
Real Salt Lake to win both halves 16.8% 16.5% — — 6.06
LA Galaxy to win both halves 4.3% 2.8% — — 35.43
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to win either half 65.0% 65.1% — — 1.54
LA Galaxy to win neither half 62.8% 65.0% — — 1.54
LA Galaxy to win either half 37.2% 35.0% — — 2.86
Real Salt Lake to win neither half 35.0% 34.9% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to win to nil 89.0% 88.1% 87.9% 1.00× 1.14
Real Salt Lake not to win to nil 72.0% 75.3% 78.9% 0.95× 1.33
Real Salt Lake to win to nil 28.0% 24.7% 21.1% 1.17× 4.05
LA Galaxy to win to nil 11.0% 11.9% 12.1% 0.98× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.0% 24.1% 24.8% 0.97× 4.15
Real Salt Lake by 1 23.3% 24.1% 22.2% 1.09× 4.15
Real Salt Lake by 2 16.3% 17.0% 12.7% 1.34× 5.87
LA Galaxy by 1 14.0% 11.8% 17.1% 0.69× 8.50
Real Salt Lake by 3+ 12.9% 11.8% 10.6% 1.11× 8.50
LA Galaxy by 2 6.1% 7.2% 8.6% 0.84× 13.92
LA Galaxy by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.90
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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