Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627
USA-MLS
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 1-2 8.1%
- 1-0 7.5%
- 0-1 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | Under 2.5 | 43.5% |
| BTTS yes | 59.8% | BTTS no | 40.2% |
| Real Salt Lake 1+ | 78.3% | Real Salt Lake 2+ | 45.2% |
| St. Louis City 1+ | 75.8% | St. Louis City 2+ | 41.4% |
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Real Salt Lake.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Real Salt Lake have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 32.8% for St. Louis City and 28.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Real Salt Lake and 1.42 for St. Louis City.
Why Real Salt Lake
Nothing in the data singles out Real Salt Lake.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.53 to 1.42. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why St. Louis City can win
St. Louis City carry the stronger rating, 1541 Elo against 1445. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Real Salt Lake, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for St. Louis City, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Salt Lake: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St. Louis City: 53% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Real Salt Lake are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 55/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.62–1.38 | 1-1 12% | 58% | 61% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.