Real Sociedad v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.71 – +1.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
52.7%
Draw
26.3%
Alaves win
20.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.65–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.18 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.30 xGAlaves 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Sociedad |
Duje Caleta-Car | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 4' |
Real Sociedad |
Duje Caleta-Car | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 13' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 20' |
 Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 23' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.66 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 26' |
Alaves |
Antonio Sivera | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 26' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 26' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 28' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonny |
| 51' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 56' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 59' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.70 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Takefusa Kubo |
| 66' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Guevara |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 79' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 80' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 82' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 87' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 94' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 96' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Denis Suárez |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ángel Pérez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Victor Parada DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jonny DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jon Guridi MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Ibrahim Diabate FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Lucas Boyé Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Sucic AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Brais Méndez AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AML | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Luken Beitia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |