Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.71 – -0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
24.7%
Draw
24.7%
Atletico Madrid win
50.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–1.65 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 55% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.71 xGAtletico Madrid 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 6' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 15' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 29' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 37' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 39' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.26 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 39' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Goal | Giuliano Simeone |
| 51' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 54' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Takefusa Kubo |
| 65' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Conor Gallagher |
| 68' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 69' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 76' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 78' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 82' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Johnny Cardoso |
| 82' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 85' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 85' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Soler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.86 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Brais Méndez FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.82 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.26 | 0.65 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Marc Pubill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Koke MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Álex Baena ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| Robin Le Normand Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Johnny Cardoso Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |