Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 13
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
2 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.96
Goals − xG
-0.61 – +1.17
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyReal Sociedad win
32.4%
model 33.6%
Draw
24.4%
model 23.8%
Atletico Madrid win
43.2%
model 42.6%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,485 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.9%
- 1-2 8.9%
- 2-1 7.8%
- 0-1 7.6%
- 1-0 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | Under 2.5 | 40.7% |
| BTTS yes | 61.4% | BTTS no | 38.6% |
| Real Sociedad 1+ | 76.1% | Real Sociedad 2+ | 42.0% |
| Atletico Madrid 1+ | 80.6% | Atletico Madrid 2+ | 48.8% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.64. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Atletico Madrid (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 38%
57.2% fair odds 1.75
strong signal · 3681 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 589 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1509.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Atletico Madrid have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 32.4% for Real Sociedad and 24.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Real Sociedad and 1.64 for Atletico Madrid.
Why Real Sociedad
At home Real Sociedad average 1.96 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.43 to 1.64. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Atletico Madrid can win
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1509.
Key players
Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Brais Méndez (0.25). Atletico Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alexander Sørloth (0.43), Julián Álvarez (0.42), Antoine Griezmann (0.34).
Availability
2 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.08 expected goal involvements a match. Real Sociedad changed goalkeeper for their last match. Reported unavailable for Real Sociedad: Jon Martín (suspended). 3 of Atletico Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Atletico Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces. Atletico Madrid: 56% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·
Atletico Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWDWLWWWW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 18
from 17.8 xG
Atletico Madrid are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWLWWWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 19.7 xG
conceded 8
from 12.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.51–1.68 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.66 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to win | 43.9% | 43.0% | 46.9% | 0.92× | 2.33 |
| Atletico Madrid to win | 33.2% | 30.7% | 28.1% | 1.09× | 3.26 |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.5% | 25.1% | 0.98× | 4.08 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad & both teams score | 25.8% | 25.4% | 21.6% | 1.18× | 3.93 |
| Atletico Madrid & both teams score | 20.0% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 1.32× | 5.55 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.2% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.55 |
| Real Sociedad & not both score | 18.2% | 18.0% | 25.4% | 0.71× | 5.55 |
| Atletico Madrid & not both score | 13.2% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 0.91× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 0.96× | 20.42 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad & over 1.5 | 37.4% | 34.7% | 34.1% | 1.02× | 2.88 |
| Real Sociedad & over 2.5 | 31.5% | 31.0% | 28.0% | 1.11× | 3.23 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 1.5 | 27.6% | 26.0% | 21.1% | 1.23× | 3.85 |
| Real Sociedad & under 3.5 | 24.8% | 21.6% | 33.1% | 0.65× | 4.63 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 2.5 | 23.3% | 21.6% | 16.7% | 1.30× | 4.63 |
| Real Sociedad & over 3.5 | 19.2% | 18.0% | 13.9% | 1.29× | 5.57 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.2% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 3.5 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 21.6% | 0.83× | 5.57 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 13.7% | 12.8% | 20.0% | 0.64× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 13.7% | 12.8% | 20.0% | 0.64× | 7.78 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 3.5 | 13.5% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 1.95× | 7.78 |
| Real Sociedad & under 2.5 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 19.0% | 0.68× | 7.79 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.53× | 12.55 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.53× | 12.55 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 2.5 | 9.9% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 0.69× | 12.55 |
| Real Sociedad & under 1.5 | 6.6% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 0.62× | 12.56 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 1.5 | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 1.12× | 12.56 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 0.96× | 20.51 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (1UP) | 62.3% | 63.1% | 63.2% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| Atletico Madrid (1UP) | 53.3% | 52.9% | 47.0% | 1.13× | 1.89 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (2UP) | 43.9% | 47.8% | 48.8% | 0.98× | 2.09 |
| Atletico Madrid (2UP) | 33.2% | 30.9% | 29.7% | 1.04× | 3.24 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to win 2nd half | 35.7% | 36.0% | 39.5% | 0.91× | 2.78 |
| 2nd half drawn | 33.1% | 34.4% | 32.9% | 1.05× | 2.90 |
| Atletico Madrid to win 2nd half | 31.2% | 34.4% | 27.7% | 1.24× | 2.91 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 2nd half | 79.1% | 79.7% | 84.5% | 0.94× | 1.26 |
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 2nd half | 57.2% | 55.6% | 51.6% | 1.08× | 1.80 |
| Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 2nd half | 42.8% | 44.4% | 48.4% | 0.92× | 2.25 |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 2nd half | 20.9% | 20.3% | 15.5% | 1.31× | 4.92 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 2nd half | 76.1% | 75.7% | 80.1% | 0.95× | 1.32 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 2nd half | 60.6% | 62.3% | 58.7% | 1.06× | 1.61 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half | 39.4% | 37.7% | 41.3% | 0.91× | 2.65 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 2nd half | 23.9% | 24.3% | 20.0% | 1.22× | 4.12 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (+2.5) | 89.8% | 88.3% | 90.1% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Atletico Madrid (+1.5) | 76.5% | 78.3% | 79.2% | 0.99× | 1.28 |
| Real Sociedad (+0.5) | 66.8% | 68.7% | 71.9% | 0.96× | 1.46 |
| Atletico Madrid (+0.5) | 56.1% | 56.9% | 53.1% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
| Real Sociedad (-0.5) | 43.9% | 43.1% | 46.9% | 0.92× | 2.32 |
| Atletico Madrid (-0.5) | 33.2% | 31.3% | 28.1% | 1.11× | 3.19 |
| Real Sociedad (-1.5) | 23.5% | 21.7% | 20.8% | 1.04× | 4.61 |
| Real Sociedad (-2.5) | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 1.17× | 8.56 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to concede | 83.1% | 81.4% | 80.5% | 1.01× | 1.23 |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 16.9% | 18.6% | 19.5% | 0.95× | 5.39 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to concede in 1st half | 57.0% | 58.4% | 48.0% | 1.22× | 1.71 |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 1st half | 43.0% | 41.6% | 52.0% | 0.80× | 2.40 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to concede in 2nd half | 60.6% | 59.9% | 58.7% | 1.02× | 1.67 |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 2nd half | 39.4% | 40.1% | 41.3% | 0.97× | 2.49 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid over 2.5 corners | 80.3% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners | 76.2% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners | 65.4% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Atletico Madrid under 5.5 corners | 64.6% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Atletico Madrid under 4.5 corners | 50.3% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners | 49.7% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Atletico Madrid over 5.5 corners | 35.4% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Atletico Madrid under 3.5 corners | 34.6% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Atletico Madrid over 6.5 corners | 23.8% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Atletico Madrid under 2.5 corners | 19.7% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals | 93.2% | 92.2% | 97.3% | 0.95× | 1.09 |
| Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals | 80.4% | 81.2% | 90.1% | 0.90× | 1.23 |
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | 76.2% | 69.7% | 1.09× | 1.31 |
| Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals | 55.1% | 58.8% | 68.2% | 0.86× | 1.70 |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 41.2% | 31.8% | 1.29× | 2.43 |
| Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals | 21.9% | 23.8% | 30.3% | 0.78× | 4.21 |
| Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals | 19.6% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 1.89× | 5.31 |
| Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals | 6.8% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 2.85× | 12.81 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.4% | 88.8% | 93.3% | 0.95× | 1.13 |
| Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half | 51.1% | 55.7% | 63.5% | 0.88× | 1.80 |
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half | 48.9% | 44.3% | 36.5% | 1.21× | 2.26 |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.6% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 1.67× | 8.89 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid scores more in 2nd half | 37.1% | 36.4% | 37.0% | 0.98× | 2.74 |
| Atletico Madrid scores equally in both | 36.2% | 36.4% | 42.3% | 0.86× | 2.75 |
| Atletico Madrid scores more in 1st half | 26.7% | 26.1% | 20.8% | 1.25× | 3.83 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (away no bet) | 65.8% | 66.8% | 65.1% | 1.03× | 1.50 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.9% | 0.95× | 3.01 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid even goals | 52.4% | 52.7% | 54.0% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Atletico Madrid odd goals | 47.6% | 47.3% | 46.0% | 1.03× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 76.2% | 81.9% | 86.9% | 0.94× | 1.22 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 18.1% | 13.1% | 1.38× | 5.54 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 74.1% | 67.4% | 62.3% | 1.08× | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 32.6% | 37.7% | 0.86× | 3.07 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 65.3% | 62.1% | 52.2% | 1.19× | 1.61 |
| Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row | 42.1% | 38.2% | 34.3% | 1.12× | 2.61 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 2+ in a row | 33.5% | 29.2% | 23.6% | 1.24× | 3.43 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 26.1% | 25.0% | 18.8% | 1.33× | 4.00 |
| Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row | 16.0% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 1.26× | 6.15 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 3+ in a row | 10.7% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 1.91× | 8.22 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad corners (+3.5) | 86.5% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Real Sociedad corners (+2.5) | 80.1% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (+3.5) | 76.9% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Real Sociedad corners (+1.5) | 71.9% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (+2.5) | 68.4% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (+1.5) | 58.6% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-1.5) | 41.4% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-2.5) | 31.6% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-1.5) | 28.1% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-3.5) | 23.1% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.96 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-2.5) | 19.9% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-3.5) | 13.5% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.43 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 35.5% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.95 |
| 0-8 corners | 34.5% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.9% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 75.2% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 72.8% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65.5% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 64.5% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55.2% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 55.0% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 45.0% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44.8% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 35.5% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 34.5% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 27.2% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 24.8% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 0.76× | 8.80 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.53 |
| 1-0 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 0.57× | 13.54 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.89× | 13.54 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.70× | 13.54 |
| 0-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.54 |
| 2-0 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.19× | 13.54 |
| 3-1 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.05× | 13.54 |
| Any other score | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 2.47× | 13.54 |
| 0-0 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 0.34× | 57.56 |
| 0-2 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 57.56 |
| 0-3 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.87× | 57.57 |
| 0-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.99× | 57.58 |
| 1-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.93× | 57.56 |
| 1-4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.49× | 57.57 |
| 2-3 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 57.56 |
| 2-4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.49× | 57.57 |
| 3-0 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 57.56 |
| 3-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 57.56 |
| 3-3 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.75× | 57.57 |
| 3-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.65× | 57.58 |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.07× | 57.57 |
| 4-1 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.87× | 57.57 |
| 4-2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 57.57 |
| 4-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.33× | 57.58 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.96× | 57.58 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (2nd half DNB) | 53.4% | 53.1% | 58.8% | 0.90× | 1.88 |
| Atletico Madrid (2nd half DNB) | 46.6% | 46.9% | 41.2% | 1.14× | 2.13 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB) | 57.9% | 58.3% | 62.3% | 0.94× | 1.72 |
| Atletico Madrid leading at HT (DNB) | 42.1% | 41.7% | 37.7% | 1.11× | 2.40 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid (12) | 77.1% | 75.5% | 74.9% | 1.01× | 1.33 |
| Real Sociedad or draw (1X) | 66.8% | 69.3% | 71.9% | 0.96× | 1.44 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw (X2) | 56.1% | 57.0% | 53.1% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad or draw at HT | 73.2% | 74.5% | 78.6% | 0.95× | 1.34 |
| Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid at HT | 63.7% | 62.0% | 56.7% | 1.09× | 1.61 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw at HT | 63.1% | 62.0% | 64.6% | 0.96× | 1.61 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad or draw (1UP) | 66.8% | 76.0% | 78.2% | 0.97× | 1.32 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw (1UP) | 56.1% | 62.6% | 60.0% | 1.04× | 1.60 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half | 68.8% | 65.6% | 72.3% | 0.91× | 1.52 |
| Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid in 2nd half | 66.9% | 65.6% | 67.1% | 0.98× | 1.53 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw in 2nd half | 64.3% | 64.0% | 60.5% | 1.06× | 1.56 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 57.4% | 58.0% | 62.2% | 0.93× | 1.73 |
| Neither half drawn | 42.6% | 42.0% | 37.8% | 1.11× | 2.38 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (DNB) | 57.0% | 58.3% | 62.5% | 0.93× | 1.72 |
| Atletico Madrid (DNB) | 43.0% | 41.7% | 37.5% | 1.11× | 2.40 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to score first | 51.9% | 53.8% | 55.5% | 0.97× | 1.86 |
| Atletico Madrid to score first | 44.4% | 41.9% | 39.5% | 1.06× | 2.39 |
| No goal scored | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 0.84× | 23.34 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 56.6% | 55.2% | 1.02× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 35.1% | 43.4% | 44.8% | 0.97× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 54.9% | 47.3% | 40.3% | 1.17× | 2.11 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 26.0% | 33.3% | 35.4% | 0.94× | 3.00 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.0% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 0.82× | 8.15 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 11.98 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 76.2% | 79.8% | 86.2% | 0.93× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 23.8% | 20.2% | 13.8% | 1.46× | 4.95 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 65.3% | 67.4% | 71.4% | 0.94× | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 34.7% | 32.6% | 28.6% | 1.14× | 3.07 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 47.1% | 53.2% | 60.3% | 0.88× | 1.88 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 25.0% | 26.4% | 23.1% | 1.14× | 3.79 |
| Both score 1st half only | 18.2% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 1.40× | 6.39 |
| Both score in both halves | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 1.23× | 14.52 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 72.2% | 79.8% | 83.3% | 0.96× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 27.8% | 20.2% | 16.7% | 1.21× | 4.95 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 64.9% | 59.1% | 54.7% | 1.08× | 1.69 |
| A half without a goal | 35.1% | 40.9% | 45.3% | 0.90× | 2.44 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 42.2% | 41.8% | 49.8% | 0.84× | 2.39 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.8% | 35.0% | 23.4% | 1.50× | 2.85 |
| 0-1 goals | 15.9% | 20.2% | 24.9% | 0.81× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 5.1% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 3.39× | 13.17 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 1 | 33.2% | 33.7% | 37.9% | 0.89× | 2.97 |
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 2 | 25.3% | 27.6% | 22.0% | 1.25× | 3.62 |
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 0 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 30.3% | 0.74× | 4.47 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 3+ | 19.6% | 19.6% | 10.0% | 1.97× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 1 | 30.1% | 32.6% | 38.4% | 0.85× | 3.07 |
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 2 | 26.7% | 26.1% | 22.6% | 1.15× | 3.83 |
| Real Sociedad to score 3+ | 26.3% | 26.1% | 19.7% | 1.33× | 3.83 |
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 0 | 16.9% | 19.1% | 19.5% | 0.98× | 5.23 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad leading at HT | 36.9% | 38.0% | 35.4% | 1.07× | 2.63 |
| Draw at HT | 36.3% | 38.0% | 43.3% | 0.88× | 2.63 |
| Atletico Madrid leading at HT | 26.8% | 25.5% | 21.4% | 1.19× | 3.92 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad -1: 2 | 56.1% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Real Sociedad -1: 1 | 23.5% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
| Real Sociedad -1: X | 20.5% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:1) | 56.1% | 55.6% | 53.1% | 1.05× | 1.80 |
| Real Sociedad (0:1) | 23.5% | 24.4% | 20.8% | 1.17× | 4.10 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.5% | 24.4% | 26.2% | 0.93× | 4.10 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:2) | 76.5% | 79.4% | 79.2% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 1.00× | 9.15 |
| Real Sociedad (0:2) | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 1.10× | 9.16 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:3) | 89.8% | 90.4% | 90.1% | 1.00× | 1.11 |
| Draw (0:3) | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 0.83× | 16.96 |
| Real Sociedad (0:3) | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.79× | 42.28 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:4) | 96.3% | 98.1% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.52× | 80.90 |
| Real Sociedad (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.65× | 81.05 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (1:0) | 66.8% | 69.5% | 71.9% | 0.97× | 1.44 |
| Draw (1:0) | 17.5% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 0.97× | 5.84 |
| Atletico Madrid (1:0) | 15.7% | 17.1% | 10.6% | 1.62× | 5.85 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (2:0) | 84.3% | 84.6% | 89.4% | 0.95× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 0.96× | 15.28 |
| Atletico Madrid (2:0) | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.69× | 15.32 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 44.2% | 49.1% | 51.4% | 0.96× | 2.04 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 33.0% | 30.3% | 26.3% | 1.15× | 3.30 |
| Halves equal | 22.8% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 1.07× | 4.15 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to concede | 78.1% | 76.5% | 69.7% | 1.10× | 1.31 |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 21.9% | 23.5% | 30.3% | 0.77× | 4.26 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half | 51.1% | 55.7% | 63.5% | 0.88× | 1.80 |
| Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half | 48.9% | 44.3% | 36.5% | 1.21× | 2.26 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to concede in 2nd half | 57.2% | 55.7% | 51.6% | 1.08× | 1.80 |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half | 42.8% | 44.3% | 48.4% | 0.92× | 2.26 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners | 86.0% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners | 73.8% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners | 66.9% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners | 59.7% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners | 54.4% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners | 45.6% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners | 40.3% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners | 33.1% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners | 26.2% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners | 14.1% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals | 89.5% | 87.3% | 92.7% | 0.94× | 1.15 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | 81.9% | 80.5% | 1.02× | 1.22 |
| Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals | 73.7% | 74.3% | 80.3% | 0.93× | 1.35 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals | 53.0% | 52.8% | 42.2% | 1.25× | 1.89 |
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 47.2% | 57.8% | 0.82× | 2.12 |
| Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals | 26.3% | 25.7% | 19.7% | 1.31× | 3.90 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals | 16.9% | 18.1% | 19.5% | 0.93× | 5.54 |
| Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 1.74× | 7.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half | 79.3% | 77.3% | 86.0% | 0.90× | 1.29 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half | 57.0% | 58.0% | 48.0% | 1.21× | 1.72 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half | 43.0% | 42.0% | 52.0% | 0.81× | 2.38 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half | 20.7% | 22.7% | 14.0% | 1.63× | 4.40 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad scores more in 2nd half | 35.9% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 0.94× | 2.67 |
| Real Sociedad scores equally in both | 33.1% | 32.9% | 32.4% | 1.01× | 3.04 |
| Real Sociedad scores more in 1st half | 31.0% | 32.8% | 27.7% | 1.19× | 3.05 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (home no bet) | 59.2% | 56.0% | 52.8% | 1.06× | 1.78 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 40.8% | 44.0% | 47.2% | 0.93× | 2.28 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad even goals | 51.4% | 50.4% | 47.4% | 1.06× | 1.98 |
| Real Sociedad odd goals | 48.6% | 49.6% | 52.6% | 0.94× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 22.0% | 24.2% | 32.2% | 0.75× | 4.14 |
| HT 1-0 | 18.6% | 18.7% | 22.7% | 0.82× | 5.36 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.8% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 0.67× | 9.14 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 1.08× | 9.17 |
| Any other HT score | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.59× | 14.00 |
| HT 2-0 | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 1.15× | 14.01 |
| HT 2-1 | 5.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 2.20× | 14.04 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 0.74× | 43.17 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.55× | 43.23 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.85× | 43.41 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 28.2% | 26.9% | 26.4% | 1.02× | 3.72 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 19.1% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 1.31× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 13.0% | 12.7% | 18.1% | 0.70× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 12.0% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 0.91× | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 11.3% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 1.10× | 7.91 |
| Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.15× | 16.58 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Draw at FT | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 0.99× | 16.60 |
| Real Sociedad at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 0.86× | 29.01 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.26× | 29.01 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to score last | 51.9% | 52.0% | 55.7% | 0.93× | 1.93 |
| Atletico Madrid to score last | 44.4% | 40.2% | 39.3% | 1.02× | 2.49 |
| No goal scored | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 0.84× | 23.34 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.3% | 95.6% | 94.9% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time | 62.3% | 61.4% | 63.2% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 54.3% | 50.9% | 41.5% | 1.23× | 1.97 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 1 at any time | 53.3% | 50.8% | 47.0% | 1.08× | 1.97 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time | 31.6% | 29.3% | 26.4% | 1.11× | 3.41 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 2 at any time | 23.2% | 19.6% | 15.5% | 1.27× | 5.10 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 21.6% | 19.6% | 16.7% | 1.17× | 5.11 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time | 13.2% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 0.86× | 9.54 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 3 at any time | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.45× | 14.95 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad most corners | 51.9% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Atletico Madrid most corners | 37.7% | 39.4% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Corners level | 10.4% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.62 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.6% | 83.3% | 89.2% | 0.93× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.0% | 78.5% | 73.0% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 72.6% | 72.3% | 81.2% | 0.89× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 72.3% | 69.4% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.4% | 63.2% | 61.4% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 58.9% | 59.2% | 47.5% | 1.25× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 54.4% | 53.4% | 69.5% | 0.77× | 1.87 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.3% | 53.4% | 43.9% | 1.22× | 1.87 |
| 2-3 goals | 42.2% | 43.6% | 49.8% | 0.88× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.3% | 43.6% | 35.9% | 1.21× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.8% | 39.3% | 23.4% | 1.68× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 32.3% | 35.3% | 45.4% | 0.78× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.2% | 35.3% | 19.8% | 1.78× | 2.83 |
| 5-6 goals | 18.6% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 1.62× | 5.30 |
| 7+ goals | 5.1% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 4.01× | 11.14 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad never behind | 43.0% | 48.2% | 53.0% | 0.91× | 2.08 |
| Atletico Madrid never behind | 34.0% | 35.6% | 36.8% | 0.97× | 2.81 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 51.0% | 53.7% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.0% | 46.3% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 52.4% | 51.6% | 53.6% | 0.96× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 47.6% | 48.4% | 46.4% | 1.04× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.4% | 52.0% | 49.6% | 1.05× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.6% | 48.0% | 50.4% | 0.95× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.3% | 95.4% | 94.9% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.4% | 87.5% | 94.2% | 0.93× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | 82.1% | 75.1% | 1.09× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76.4% | 77.2% | 86.2% | 0.90× | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 61.9% | 49.6% | 1.25× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58.1% | 58.5% | 74.5% | 0.78× | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% | 41.5% | 25.5% | 1.63× | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 38.1% | 50.4% | 0.76× | 2.62 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23.6% | 22.8% | 13.8% | 1.65× | 4.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.9% | 17.9% | 24.9% | 0.72× | 5.60 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 11.6% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 2.15× | 7.97 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 0.90× | 21.68 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.6% | 92.4% | 97.7% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 86.8% | 86.6% | 93.6% | 0.92× | 1.16 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 80.1% | 80.5% | 66.6% | 1.21× | 1.24 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 71.1% | 72.2% | 84.4% | 0.86× | 1.39 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 53.7% | 52.3% | 33.6% | 1.55× | 1.91 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 46.3% | 47.7% | 66.4% | 0.72× | 2.09 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 28.9% | 27.8% | 15.6% | 1.78× | 3.60 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 19.9% | 19.5% | 33.4% | 0.58× | 5.14 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 13.2% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2.11× | 7.45 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.27× | 13.17 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 80.5% | 86.2% | 89.9% | 0.96× | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 78.0% | 78.9% | 67.8% | 1.16× | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 55.3% | 62.7% | 70.8% | 0.89× | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 44.7% | 37.3% | 29.2% | 1.28× | 2.68 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 22.0% | 21.1% | 32.2% | 0.66× | 4.74 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 19.5% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.37× | 7.24 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.1% | 82.8% | 81.8% | 1.01× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 73.6% | 77.5% | 79.7% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.1% | 53.0% | 46.3% | 1.15× | 1.89 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.9% | 47.0% | 53.7% | 0.87× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 26.4% | 22.5% | 20.3% | 1.11× | 4.44 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.9% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 0.95× | 5.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to score in both halves | 72.0% | 73.6% | 81.4% | 0.90× | 1.36 |
| Real Sociedad not to score in both halves | 65.5% | 70.4% | 73.7% | 0.96× | 1.42 |
| Real Sociedad to score in both halves | 34.5% | 29.6% | 26.3% | 1.13× | 3.38 |
| Atletico Madrid to score in both halves | 28.0% | 26.4% | 18.6% | 1.42× | 3.79 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 64.9% | 60.2% | 55.2% | 1.09× | 1.66 |
| Only Real Sociedad scores | 18.2% | 16.0% | 25.4% | 0.63× | 6.26 |
| Only Atletico Madrid scores | 13.2% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 0.77× | 8.98 |
| Neither team scores | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 0.91× | 21.66 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.4% | 24.3% | 0.93× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 20.1% | 22.4% | 25.6% | 0.88× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.2% | 17.5% | 11.8% | 1.48× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.2% | 12.1% | 19.9% | 0.61× | 8.28 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 1.49× | 8.28 |
| 6 or more goals | 11.6% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 2.07× | 8.28 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 0.89× | 22.15 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 33.3% | 35.9% | 38.8% | 0.93× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 25.2% | 28.5% | 19.2% | 1.48× | 3.51 |
| No goals in 1st half | 22.0% | 21.7% | 32.2% | 0.68× | 4.61 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 19.5% | 15.2% | 10.1% | 1.51× | 6.57 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 53.1% | 51.4% | 46.3% | 1.11× | 1.95 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 30.0% | 33.2% | 35.7% | 0.93× | 3.01 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.9% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 0.94× | 5.82 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to win both halves | 91.6% | 94.0% | 94.6% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Real Sociedad not to win both halves | 86.8% | 87.8% | 88.2% | 1.00× | 1.14 |
| Real Sociedad to win both halves | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 1.03× | 8.20 |
| Atletico Madrid to win both halves | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.13× | 16.54 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to win either half | 59.4% | 59.6% | 63.1% | 0.94× | 1.68 |
| Atletico Madrid to win neither half | 50.4% | 54.9% | 56.2% | 0.98× | 1.82 |
| Atletico Madrid to win either half | 49.6% | 45.1% | 43.8% | 1.03× | 2.22 |
| Real Sociedad to win neither half | 40.6% | 40.4% | 36.9% | 1.09× | 2.48 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to win to nil | 86.8% | 87.9% | 85.4% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| Real Sociedad not to win to nil | 81.8% | 83.2% | 74.6% | 1.11× | 1.20 |
| Real Sociedad to win to nil | 18.2% | 16.8% | 25.4% | 0.66× | 5.94 |
| Atletico Madrid to win to nil | 13.2% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 0.83× | 8.26 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.1% | 25.1% | 0.96× | 4.15 |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 20.5% | 24.1% | 26.2% | 0.92× | 4.15 |
| Atletico Madrid by 1 | 17.5% | 16.9% | 17.7% | 0.96× | 5.91 |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 1.07× | 8.50 |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 1.18× | 8.51 |
| Atletico Madrid by 2 | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 1.06× | 13.78 |
| Atletico Madrid by 3+ | 6.0% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.88× | 13.79 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 0.61 xGAtletico Madrid 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Lee Kang-In | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 19' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Atletico Madrid |
Morten Hjulmand | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 33' |
 Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.38 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luken Beitia |
| 38' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Atletico Madrid |
David Hancko | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 61' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 62' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 69' |
Atletico Madrid |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnau Ortiz |
| 77' |
Atletico Madrid |
Morten Hjulmand | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Atletico Madrid |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 94' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Hancko |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Sucic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luken Beitia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.01 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Job Ochieng Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.34 | 0.88 |
| Giuliano Simeone DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Morten Hjulmand MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marc Pubill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ademola Lookman FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Lee Kang-In AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Marcos Llorente MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Álex Baena AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Johnny Cardoso Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Koke Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Arnau Ortiz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |