Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Real Sociedad

15:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 127h before kick-off

Real Sociedad win

30.6%

model 33.5%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.0%

Atletico Madrid win

46.1%

model 42.4%

312346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
1-2 8.9%
0-1 7.8%
2-1 7.8%
1-0 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.3%	Under 2.5	41.7%
BTTS yes	60.6%	BTTS no	39.4%
Real Sociedad 1+	75.6%	Real Sociedad 2+	41.2%
Atletico Madrid 1+	80.1%	Atletico Madrid 2+	48.0%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.62. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Atletico Madrid (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 38%

56.9% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 3577 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1509.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atletico Madrid have an estimated 46.1% win probability, against 30.6% for Real Sociedad and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Real Sociedad and 1.62 for Atletico Madrid.

Why Real Sociedad

At home Real Sociedad average 1.96 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.62. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Atletico Madrid can win

Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1509.

Key players

Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Brais Méndez (0.25). Atletico Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alexander Sørloth (0.43), Julián Álvarez (0.42), Antoine Griezmann (0.34).

Availability

2 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.08 expected goal involvements a match. Real Sociedad changed goalkeeper for their last match. Reported unavailable for Real Sociedad: Jon Martín (suspended). 3 of Atletico Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Atletico Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces. Atletico Madrid: 55% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Atletico Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 46.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDLDLLWDW last 10 scored 13 from 12.3 xG conceded 17 from 19.4 xG

Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWLWWLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 17.5 xG conceded 15 from 16.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	342442	1.41–1.62	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	352342	1.51–1.68	1-1 10%	62%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win	43.9%	43.0%	46.8%	0.92×	2.33
Atletico Madrid to win	33.2%	30.6%	28.1%	1.09×	3.27
Draw	22.9%	24.6%	25.2%	0.98×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & both teams score	25.8%	25.5%	21.7%	1.17×	3.93
Atletico Madrid & both teams score	20.0%	18.0%	13.7%	1.32×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.55
Real Sociedad & not both score	18.2%	18.0%	25.3%	0.71×	5.55
Atletico Madrid & not both score	13.2%	13.2%	14.6%	0.91×	7.55
Draw & not both score	3.7%	4.9%	5.1%	0.97×	20.28

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & over 1.5	37.4%	34.6%	34.1%	1.02×	2.89
Real Sociedad & over 2.5	31.5%	31.0%	28.0%	1.11×	3.22
Atletico Madrid & over 1.5	27.6%	25.9%	21.2%	1.23×	3.86
Real Sociedad & under 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	33.0%	0.65×	4.63
Atletico Madrid & over 2.5	23.3%	21.6%	16.7%	1.29×	4.63
Real Sociedad & over 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Atletico Madrid & under 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	13.7%	12.9%	20.1%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.7%	12.9%	20.1%	0.64×	7.77
Atletico Madrid & over 3.5	13.5%	12.9%	6.6%	1.95×	7.77
Real Sociedad & under 2.5	12.4%	12.9%	18.9%	0.68×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.2%	8.0%	5.2%	1.52×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	9.2%	8.0%	5.2%	1.52×	12.56
Atletico Madrid & under 2.5	9.9%	8.0%	11.6%	0.69×	12.56
Real Sociedad & under 1.5	6.6%	8.0%	12.8%	0.62×	12.56
Atletico Madrid & under 1.5	5.6%	8.0%	7.1%	1.12×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.9%	5.1%	0.95×	20.53

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (1UP)	62.3%	63.1%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Atletico Madrid (1UP)	53.3%	52.8%	47.1%	1.12×	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2UP)	43.9%	47.8%	48.7%	0.98×	2.09
Atletico Madrid (2UP)	33.2%	30.9%	29.7%	1.04×	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win 2nd half	35.7%	35.9%	39.5%	0.91×	2.79
2nd half drawn	33.1%	34.5%	33.0%	1.05×	2.90
Atletico Madrid to win 2nd half	31.2%	34.5%	27.7%	1.24×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (+2.5)	89.8%	88.4%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Atletico Madrid (+1.5)	76.5%	78.3%	79.2%	0.99×	1.28
Real Sociedad (+0.5)	66.8%	68.7%	71.9%	0.96×	1.46
Atletico Madrid (+0.5)	56.1%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Real Sociedad (-0.5)	43.9%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32
Atletico Madrid (-0.5)	33.2%	31.3%	28.1%	1.11×	3.20
Real Sociedad (-1.5)	23.5%	21.7%	20.8%	1.04×	4.61
Real Sociedad (-2.5)	10.2%	11.6%	10.0%	1.17×	8.59

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to concede	83.1%	81.4%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	16.9%	18.6%	19.6%	0.95×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to concede in 1st half	57.0%	58.5%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 1st half	43.0%	41.5%	51.9%	0.80×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 corners	80.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners	76.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners	65.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Atletico Madrid under 5.5 corners	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atletico Madrid under 4.5 corners	50.5%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners	49.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Atletico Madrid over 5.5 corners	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 corners	34.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Atletico Madrid over 6.5 corners	23.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 corners	19.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals	93.2%	92.2%	97.3%	0.95×	1.09
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals	80.4%	81.2%	90.0%	0.90×	1.23
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals	78.1%	76.1%	69.7%	1.09×	1.31
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals	55.1%	58.9%	68.1%	0.87×	1.70
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals	44.9%	41.1%	31.9%	1.29×	2.44
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals	21.9%	23.9%	30.3%	0.79×	4.19
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals	19.6%	18.8%	10.0%	1.88×	5.33
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals	6.8%	7.8%	2.7%	2.85×	12.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half	85.4%	88.9%	93.3%	0.95×	1.13
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	55.6%	63.4%	0.88×	1.80
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	44.4%	36.6%	1.21×	2.25
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half	14.6%	11.1%	6.7%	1.65×	8.98

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (away no bet)	65.8%	66.5%	65.1%	1.02×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	34.2%	33.5%	34.9%	0.96×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid even goals	52.4%	52.8%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Atletico Madrid odd goals	47.6%	47.2%	46.1%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.2%	81.9%	86.9%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.8%	18.1%	13.1%	1.38×	5.54

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.1%	67.4%	62.4%	1.08×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.9%	32.6%	37.6%	0.87×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.3%	62.1%	52.3%	1.19×	1.61
Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row	42.1%	38.2%	34.3%	1.11×	2.61
Atletico Madrid to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	29.1%	23.6%	1.23×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.1%	25.0%	18.9%	1.33×	4.00
Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	13.0%	1.25×	6.15
Atletico Madrid to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.1%	6.4%	1.90×	8.26

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad corners (+3.5)	86.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Real Sociedad corners (+2.5)	80.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atletico Madrid corners (+3.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Real Sociedad corners (+1.5)	71.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Atletico Madrid corners (+2.5)	68.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Atletico Madrid corners (+1.5)	58.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad corners (-1.5)	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad corners (-2.5)	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Atletico Madrid corners (-1.5)	28.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Real Sociedad corners (-3.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atletico Madrid corners (-2.5)	20.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atletico Madrid corners (-3.5)	13.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
0-8 corners	35.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	64.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	35.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	26.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.0%	11.4%	15.1%	0.75×	8.81
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.53
1-0	6.6%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.54
1-2	7.6%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.54
2-2	6.7%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.54
0-1	5.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.54
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.54
3-1	5.3%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.54
Any other score	5.3%	7.4%	3.0%	2.47×	13.54
0-0	3.7%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	57.56
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.56
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	57.57
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	57.58
1-3	3.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.93×	57.56
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.57
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	57.56
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.57
3-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.56
3-2	4.0%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	57.56
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	57.57
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.4%	4.65×	57.58
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	57.57
4-1	2.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	57.57
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	57.57
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	57.58
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.95×	57.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB)	57.9%	58.5%	62.3%	0.94×	1.71
Atletico Madrid leading at HT (DNB)	42.1%	41.5%	37.7%	1.10×	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid (12)	77.1%	75.4%	74.8%	1.01×	1.33
Real Sociedad or draw (1X)	66.8%	69.4%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Atletico Madrid or draw (X2)	56.1%	57.0%	53.2%	1.07×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw at HT	73.2%	74.3%	78.5%	0.95×	1.35
Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid at HT	63.7%	62.1%	56.8%	1.09×	1.61
Atletico Madrid or draw at HT	63.1%	62.0%	64.5%	0.96×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw (1UP)	66.8%	76.0%	78.2%	0.97×	1.32
Atletico Madrid or draw (1UP)	56.1%	62.6%	60.1%	1.04×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half	68.8%	65.5%	72.3%	0.91×	1.53
Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid in 2nd half	66.9%	65.5%	67.0%	0.98×	1.53
Atletico Madrid or draw in 2nd half	64.3%	64.1%	60.5%	1.06×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.4%	58.0%	62.2%	0.93×	1.73
Neither half drawn	42.6%	42.0%	37.8%	1.11×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (DNB)	57.0%	58.3%	62.5%	0.93×	1.72
Atletico Madrid (DNB)	43.0%	41.7%	37.5%	1.11×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score first	51.9%	53.8%	55.4%	0.97×	1.86
Atletico Madrid to score first	44.4%	41.9%	39.6%	1.06×	2.39
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	5.1%	0.84×	23.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.9%	56.5%	55.3%	1.02×	1.77
Not both teams to score	35.1%	43.5%	44.7%	0.97×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.9%	47.3%	40.3%	1.17×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.0%	33.3%	35.4%	0.94×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.3%	15.1%	0.81×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.4%	9.5%	0.89×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.2%	80.0%	86.2%	0.93×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.8%	20.0%	13.8%	1.45×	5.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.3%	67.5%	71.4%	0.95×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.7%	32.5%	28.6%	1.14×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.1%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	26.5%	23.1%	1.15×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	18.2%	15.7%	11.2%	1.40×	6.37
Both score in both halves	9.7%	6.8%	5.6%	1.22×	14.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.2%	79.8%	83.3%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	27.8%	20.2%	16.7%	1.21×	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.9%	58.9%	54.8%	1.07×	1.70
A half without a goal	35.1%	41.1%	45.2%	0.91×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.2%	41.9%	49.8%	0.84×	2.39
4-6 goals	36.8%	34.9%	23.4%	1.49×	2.86
0-1 goals	15.9%	20.2%	24.8%	0.82×	4.95
7+ goals	5.1%	7.6%	2.2%	3.40×	13.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 1	33.2%	33.6%	38.0%	0.89×	2.97
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 2	25.3%	27.6%	22.0%	1.25×	3.63
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 0	21.9%	22.5%	30.3%	0.74×	4.44
Atletico Madrid to score 3+	19.6%	19.6%	10.0%	1.96×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score exactly 1	30.1%	32.6%	38.4%	0.85×	3.07
Real Sociedad to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.1%	22.7%	1.15×	3.83
Real Sociedad to score 3+	26.3%	26.1%	19.7%	1.33×	3.83
Real Sociedad to score exactly 0	16.9%	19.2%	19.6%	0.98×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad leading at HT	36.9%	38.0%	35.5%	1.07×	2.63
Draw at HT	36.3%	37.9%	43.2%	0.88×	2.64
Atletico Madrid leading at HT	26.8%	25.7%	21.5%	1.20×	3.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad -1: 2	56.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Real Sociedad -1: 1	23.5%	23.7%	—	—	4.23
Real Sociedad -1: X	20.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:1)	56.1%	55.6%	53.2%	1.05×	1.80
Real Sociedad (0:1)	23.5%	24.4%	20.8%	1.17×	4.10
Draw (0:1)	20.5%	24.4%	26.2%	0.93×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:2)	76.5%	79.5%	79.2%	1.00×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.2%	10.9%	11.0%	0.99×	9.21
Real Sociedad (0:2)	10.2%	10.8%	10.0%	1.09×	9.23

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:3)	89.8%	90.5%	90.0%	1.01×	1.11
Draw (0:3)	6.5%	5.9%	7.1%	0.83×	16.94
Real Sociedad (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:4)	96.3%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.6%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.69
Real Sociedad (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	0.7%	1.64×	81.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (1:0)	66.8%	69.5%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	17.5%	17.1%	17.7%	0.97×	5.86
Atletico Madrid (1:0)	15.7%	17.1%	10.6%	1.61×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2:0)	84.3%	84.6%	89.4%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.7%	6.6%	6.8%	0.96×	15.21
Atletico Madrid (2:0)	6.0%	6.6%	3.9%	1.70×	15.25

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.2%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	33.0%	30.0%	26.3%	1.14×	3.33
Halves equal	22.8%	24.1%	22.5%	1.07×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede	78.1%	76.2%	69.7%	1.09×	1.31
Real Sociedad clean sheet	21.9%	23.8%	30.3%	0.79×	4.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half	51.1%	55.6%	63.4%	0.88×	1.80
Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half	48.9%	44.4%	36.6%	1.21×	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners	85.7%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners	67.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners	59.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners	54.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners	45.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners	40.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners	26.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners	14.3%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals	89.5%	87.2%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals	83.1%	81.9%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals	73.7%	74.3%	80.3%	0.92×	1.35
Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals	53.0%	52.8%	42.2%	1.25×	1.90
Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals	47.0%	47.2%	57.8%	0.82×	2.12
Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals	26.3%	25.7%	19.7%	1.31×	3.89
Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals	16.9%	18.1%	19.6%	0.92×	5.53
Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals	10.5%	12.8%	7.3%	1.74×	7.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half	79.3%	77.4%	86.0%	0.90×	1.29
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half	57.0%	58.1%	48.1%	1.21×	1.72
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half	43.0%	41.9%	51.9%	0.81×	2.39
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half	20.7%	22.7%	14.0%	1.62×	4.42

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (home no bet)	59.2%	56.1%	52.8%	1.06×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	40.8%	43.9%	47.2%	0.93×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad even goals	51.4%	50.4%	47.4%	1.06×	1.98
Real Sociedad odd goals	48.6%	49.6%	52.6%	0.94×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.0%	24.2%	32.1%	0.75×	4.14
HT 1-0	18.6%	18.7%	22.7%	0.82×	5.36
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	16.2%	0.68×	9.13
HT 1-1	12.4%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.15
Any other HT score	8.3%	7.1%	4.5%	1.59×	14.01
HT 2-0	7.8%	7.1%	6.2%	1.14×	14.02
HT 2-1	5.3%	7.1%	3.2%	2.19×	14.05
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.3%	3.1%	0.74×	43.34
HT 1-2	4.2%	2.3%	1.5%	1.54×	43.40
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.3%	1.2%	1.84×	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	28.2%	27.0%	26.5%	1.02×	3.70
Atletico Madrid at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	19.1%	16.8%	12.9%	1.31×	5.96
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	13.0%	12.7%	18.0%	0.70×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	11.3%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	5.2%	1.14×	16.71
Atletico Madrid at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	6.1%	0.98×	16.74
Real Sociedad at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	2.8%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.81
Atletico Madrid at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	2.7%	3.5%	2.7%	1.26×	28.81

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score last	51.9%	52.0%	55.7%	0.93×	1.93
Atletico Madrid to score last	44.4%	40.2%	39.3%	1.02×	2.49
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	5.1%	0.84×	23.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	95.6%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time	62.3%	61.4%	63.2%	0.97×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.3%	50.8%	41.6%	1.22×	1.97
Atletico Madrid to lead by 1 at any time	53.3%	50.8%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time	31.6%	29.3%	26.5%	1.11×	3.41
Atletico Madrid to lead by 2 at any time	23.2%	19.6%	15.5%	1.27×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.6%	19.6%	16.7%	1.17×	5.11
Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	12.2%	0.86×	9.54
Atletico Madrid to lead by 3 at any time	8.3%	6.6%	4.6%	1.44×	15.06

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad most corners	51.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Atletico Madrid most corners	37.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.3%	89.2%	0.93×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.0%	78.5%	73.1%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.6%	72.3%	81.2%	0.89×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.3%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.1%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.9%	59.3%	47.6%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.4%	53.4%	69.5%	0.77×	1.87
3-5 goals	52.3%	53.4%	44.0%	1.21×	1.87
2-3 goals	42.2%	43.6%	49.8%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	36.0%	1.21×	2.29
4-6 goals	36.8%	39.3%	23.4%	1.68×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.3%	35.3%	45.3%	0.78×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.2%	35.3%	19.8%	1.78×	2.83
5-6 goals	18.6%	18.9%	11.7%	1.61×	5.30
7+ goals	5.1%	9.0%	2.2%	4.00×	11.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad never behind	43.0%	48.3%	52.9%	0.91×	2.07
Atletico Madrid never behind	34.0%	35.6%	36.8%	0.97×	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.7%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	52.0%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.0%	50.3%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.4%	87.4%	94.1%	0.93×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	82.1%	75.2%	1.09×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.4%	77.2%	86.2%	0.90×	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	64.0%	61.9%	49.7%	1.25×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	58.1%	58.5%	74.5%	0.79×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	41.9%	41.5%	25.5%	1.63×	2.41
Under 2.5 goals	36.0%	38.1%	50.3%	0.76×	2.63
Over 4.5 goals	23.6%	22.8%	13.8%	1.65×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.9%	24.8%	0.72×	5.60
Over 5.5 goals	11.6%	12.6%	5.9%	2.15×	7.96
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.72

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.6%	92.4%	97.7%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.8%	86.6%	93.6%	0.92×	1.16
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.1%	80.5%	66.7%	1.21×	1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.1%	72.2%	84.3%	0.86×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.7%	52.4%	33.7%	1.56×	1.91
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.3%	47.6%	66.3%	0.72×	2.10
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.9%	27.8%	15.7%	1.77×	3.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.9%	19.5%	33.3%	0.59×	5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.2%	13.4%	6.4%	2.11×	7.45
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.4%	7.6%	2.3%	3.27×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.5%	86.2%	89.9%	0.96×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.0%	78.9%	67.9%	1.16×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.3%	62.5%	70.8%	0.88×	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.7%	37.5%	29.2%	1.28×	2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.0%	21.1%	32.1%	0.66×	4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.5%	13.8%	10.1%	1.37×	7.22

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	82.8%	81.8%	1.01×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	77.7%	79.7%	0.98×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	53.4%	46.3%	1.15×	1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	46.6%	53.7%	0.87×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	22.3%	20.4%	1.09×	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.2%	18.2%	0.94×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to score in both halves	72.0%	73.7%	81.4%	0.91×	1.36
Real Sociedad not to score in both halves	65.5%	70.4%	73.7%	0.96×	1.42
Real Sociedad to score in both halves	34.5%	29.6%	26.3%	1.12×	3.38
Atletico Madrid to score in both halves	28.0%	26.3%	18.6%	1.41×	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.9%	60.3%	55.3%	1.09×	1.66
Only Real Sociedad scores	18.2%	16.0%	25.3%	0.63×	6.25
Only Atletico Madrid scores	13.2%	11.1%	14.6%	0.76×	9.02
Neither team scores	3.7%	4.6%	5.1%	0.91×	21.52

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.4%	24.3%	0.92×	4.46
Exactly 2 goals	20.1%	22.4%	25.7%	0.87×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	18.2%	17.6%	11.8%	1.48×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.0%	19.8%	0.61×	8.30
Exactly 5 goals	12.0%	12.0%	8.1%	1.49×	8.30
6 or more goals	11.6%	12.0%	5.9%	2.06×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	4.5%	5.1%	0.88×	22.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.1%	51.5%	46.3%	1.11×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	30.0%	33.3%	35.6%	0.93×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	16.9%	17.2%	18.2%	0.94×	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to win both halves	91.6%	93.9%	94.6%	0.99×	1.06
Real Sociedad not to win both halves	86.8%	87.9%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Real Sociedad to win both halves	13.2%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.26
Atletico Madrid to win both halves	8.4%	6.1%	5.4%	1.13×	16.53

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win either half	59.4%	59.6%	63.0%	0.94×	1.68
Atletico Madrid to win neither half	50.4%	54.8%	56.2%	0.98×	1.83
Atletico Madrid to win either half	49.6%	45.2%	43.8%	1.03×	2.21
Real Sociedad to win neither half	40.6%	40.4%	37.0%	1.09×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid not to win to nil	86.8%	87.9%	85.4%	1.03×	1.14
Real Sociedad not to win to nil	81.8%	83.1%	74.7%	1.11×	1.20
Real Sociedad to win to nil	18.2%	16.9%	25.3%	0.67×	5.93
Atletico Madrid to win to nil	13.2%	12.1%	14.6%	0.83×	8.28

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.9%	24.2%	25.2%	0.96×	4.14
Real Sociedad by 1	20.5%	24.2%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Atletico Madrid by 1	17.5%	16.9%	17.7%	0.96×	5.92
Real Sociedad by 2	13.2%	11.7%	11.0%	1.07×	8.52
Real Sociedad by 3+	10.2%	11.7%	10.0%	1.18×	8.53
Atletico Madrid by 2	9.7%	7.3%	6.8%	1.06×	13.73
Atletico Madrid by 3+	6.0%	7.3%	3.9%	1.88×	13.74