Real Sociedad v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 25
On target
5 – 9
Shots in box
5 – 18
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.44 – -2.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
15.9%
Draw
18.2%
Barcelona win
65.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLLWDWLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.5 xG
conceded 18
from 19.2 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 40
from 36.8 xG
conceded 12
from 11.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–2.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–2.03 | 1-2 10% | 65% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.56 xGBarcelona 3.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 1' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Balde |
| 3' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 12' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 22' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 23' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 24' |
 Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 31' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Balde |
| 42' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Fermín López |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fermín López |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Álex Balde | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Balde |
| 48' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 51' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 51' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Aihen Muñoz |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carlos Soler |
| 73' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Odriozola |
| 75' |
Real Sociedad |
Igor Zubeldia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 84' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | João Cancelo |
| 91' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 95' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roony Bardghji |
| 96' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 98' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Martín |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.08 | 2.31 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Lamine Yamal FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0.28 | 1.65 | 2.51 |
| Fermín López MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.53 | 2.42 |
| Eric Garcia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 1.76 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Frenkie de Jong MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Dani Olmo FWL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.35 | 0.18 | 1.67 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Álex Balde DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| Robert Lewandowski Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| João Cancelo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 1.48 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Gerard Martín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 1.40 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Brais Méndez FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Álvaro Odriozola Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Duje Caleta-Car Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |