Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 3 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 7
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-1.07 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
44.5%
Draw
24.4%
Celta Vigo win
31.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWDWLWWWW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 18
from 17.8 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDDDWDWD last 10
scored 10
from 9.6 xG
conceded 7
from 12.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.22 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.07 xGCelta Vigo 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Zubeldia |
| 9' |
 Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yoel Lago |
| 12' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 20' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 20' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Sociedad |
Yangel Herrera | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 39' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rueda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Celta Vigo |
Andrés Antañón | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Jutglà |
| 52' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Celta Vigo |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 79' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 86' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 87' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 89' |
Real Sociedad |
Alex Marchal | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Alex Marchal | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Miguel Román MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Carreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Javier Rueda DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Andrés Antañón FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Williot Swedberg FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| Couhaib Driouech Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Galán Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Takefusa Kubo AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.56 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Marchal Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |