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Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated

Real Sociedad
3–2
1.33 – 2.34 xG
Deportivo La Coruna
Shots
12 – 21
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.91
Goals − xG
+1.67 – -0.34

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Real Sociedad win
52.2%
Draw
23.8%
Deportivo La Coruna win
24.0%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.3%
  2. 1-0 10.3%
  3. 2-1 9.7%
  4. 2-0 8.9%
  5. 0-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.553.5% Under 2.546.5%
BTTS yes54.6% BTTS no45.4%
Real Sociedad 1+82.2% Real Sociedad 2+51.4%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+66.4% Deportivo La Coruna 2+29.8%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
80/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Real Sociedad have created 1.24 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.49.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
  • At home Real Sociedad average 1.70 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Deportivo La Coruna have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Sociedad have an estimated 52.2% win probability, against 24.0% for Deportivo La Coruna and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for Real Sociedad and 1.09 for Deportivo La Coruna.

Why Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad have created 1.24 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.49. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Real Sociedad average 1.70 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo La Coruna can win

Deportivo La Coruna have created 1.20 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.96. Away from home Deportivo La Coruna average 1.50 xG a match.

Key players

Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.49), Orri Óskarsson (0.33), Carlos Soler (0.24). Deportivo La Coruna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.51), Bil Nsongo (0.21), Luismi Cruz (0.20).

Availability

1 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.33 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Real Sociedad: Orri Óskarsson (suspended). 2 of Deportivo La Coruna's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo La Coruna: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-11 15:06 · team_stats 2026-10-11 06:07 · availability 2026-10-11 15:13 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Sociedad are the model's most likely outcome at 52.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DLLWDWLWWW last 10 scored 18 from 14.5 xG conceded 18 from 19.2 xG

Deportivo La Coruna have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 13 from 14.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDWWDLDLDL last 10 scored 13 from 14.4 xG conceded 13 from 14.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.73–1.09 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg 1.92–1.06 1-1 10% 57% 56% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 2.14–1.14 2-1 10% 64% 60% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jon Martín 28' — goalArsen Zakharyan 33' — goalGonçalo Guedes 53' — goalMario Soriano 60' — goalYeremay Hernández 68' — goal
Real Sociedad 1.33 xGDeportivo La Coruna 2.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Bil Nsongo 4' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Diego Villares 7' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yeremay Hernández 7' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ander Barrenetxea 13' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 19' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jon Martín 23' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Jon Martín 28' — Goal (0.29 xG, From Corner)Yangel Herrera 31' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Arsen Zakharyan 33' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Yangel Herrera 33' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Luismi Cruz 38' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Mario Soriano 41' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Carlos Soler 41' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Giménez 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Bil Nsongo 46' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Yeremay Hernández 52' — Blocked Shot (0.17 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Guedes 53' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 58' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Adrià Alti 59' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mario Soriano 60' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mikel Oyarzabal 61' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Riki Rodríguez 65' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Yeremay Hernández 68' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Yeremay Hernández 76' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yeremay Hernández 77' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 78' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Mikel Oyarzabal 82' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Igor Zubeldia 83' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Bil Nsongo 85' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Riki Rodríguez 86' — Saved Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Mikel Oyarzabal 91' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Direct Freekick)Bright Ede 94' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 95' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Real Sociedad attacking right Deportivo La Coruna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Yeremay Hernández
7' Deportivo La Coruna Diego Villares 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
7' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Giacomo Quagliata
13' Real Sociedad Ander Barrenetxea 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
19' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
23' Real Sociedad Jon Martín 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Luka Sucic
28' Real Sociedad Jon Martín 0.29 From Corner — Goal Carlos Soler
31' Real Sociedad Yangel Herrera 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Ander Barrenetxea
33' Real Sociedad Arsen Zakharyan 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
33' Real Sociedad Yangel Herrera 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Luka Sucic
38' Deportivo La Coruna Luismi Cruz 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Yeremay Hernández
41' Deportivo La Coruna Mario Soriano 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Bright Ede
41' Real Sociedad Carlos Soler 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yangel Herrera
45' Deportivo La Coruna Giménez 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Luismi Cruz
46' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Luismi Cruz
52' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.17 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Riki Rodríguez
53' Real Sociedad Gonçalo Guedes 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ander Barrenetxea
58' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.31 Open Play — Saved Shot Adama Traoré
59' Deportivo La Coruna Adrià Alti 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
60' Deportivo La Coruna Mario Soriano 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Riki Rodríguez
61' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ander Barrenetxea
65' Deportivo La Coruna Riki Rodríguez 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Mario Soriano
68' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.74 Right Foot Goal —
76' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Soriano
77' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Bil Nsongo
78' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.07 From Corner — Missed Shot Mario Soriano
82' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Luka Sucic
83' Real Sociedad Igor Zubeldia 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
85' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.05 Open Play — Blocked Shot Yeremay Hernández
86' Deportivo La Coruna Riki Rodríguez 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
91' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.12 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
94' Deportivo La Coruna Bright Ede 0.04 Open Play — Missed Shot Adrià Alti
95' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mario Soriano

Players

Real Sociedad

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jon Martín DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.30 0.00 0.08
Yangel Herrera MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.08
Ander Barrenetxea MR 90 0 1 1 3 0.06 0.23 0.33
Remiro GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Sergio Gómez DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.03
Luka Sucic FW 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.51 0.50
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Carlos Soler MC 71 0 1 1 1 0.03 0.29 0.03
Pablo Marín DR 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gonçalo Guedes ML 58 1 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.17
Arsen Zakharyan FW 58 1 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.09
Mikel Oyarzabal Sub 32 0 0 3 0 0.63 0.00 0.50
Job Ochieng Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Igor Zubeldia Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.45
Hector Fort Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Deportivo La Coruna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yeremay Hernández AML 90 1 0 5 3 1.01 0.21 0.53
Bil Nsongo FW 90 0 0 7 1 0.60 0.05 0.69
Mario Soriano DMC 90 1 0 2 4 0.05 0.14 0.83
Bright Ede DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.67
Giménez DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.56
Leo Román GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Giacomo Quagliata DL 81 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.22
Luismi Cruz AMC 59 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.06 0.30
Diego Villares DMC 59 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.04
Ximo Navarro DR 59 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
David Mella AMR 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Riki Rodríguez Sub 42 0 1 2 2 0.50 0.21 0.80
Adrià Alti Sub 31 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.04 0.06
Lorenzo Amatucci Sub 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Adama Traoré Sub 31 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.39
Jonathan Asp Jensen Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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