Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.3%
- 1-0 11.3%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 2-0 9.7%
- 0-1 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | Under 2.5 | 48.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.1% | BTTS no | 47.9% |
| Real Sociedad 1+ | 82.1% | Real Sociedad 2+ | 51.2% |
| Deportivo La Coruna 1+ | 63.5% | Deportivo La Coruna 2+ | 26.7% |
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Real Sociedad have created 1.23 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90.
- At home Real Sociedad average 1.96 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored 2.00 a match from 1.33 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
- Deportivo La Coruna have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Real Sociedad have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.8% for the draw and 22.1% for Deportivo La Coruna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Real Sociedad and 1.01 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Why Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad have created 1.23 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90. At home Real Sociedad average 1.96 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Deportivo La Coruna can win
Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1509. Deportivo La Coruna have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.94. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Deportivo La Coruna average 1.78 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Real Sociedad were missing 0.90 expected goal involvements a match against 0.10.
Key players
Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Brais Méndez (0.25). Deportivo La Coruna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.60), Luismi Cruz (0.22), Bil Nsongo (0.21).
Availability
2 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.08 expected goal involvements a match. Real Sociedad changed goalkeeper for their last match. Reported unavailable for Real Sociedad: Jon Martín (suspended).
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo La Coruna: 41% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·
Real Sociedad are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 70/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Deportivo La Coruna are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 4 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.72–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.10–1.17 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 60% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.