Real Sociedad v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.02 – +0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
54.2%
Draw
23.4%
Girona win
22.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.97–0.96 | 1-0 10% | 56% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.02 xGGirona 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 3' |
 Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 3' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 12' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 14' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 15' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 18' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Igor Zubeldia |
| 40' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 56' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 58' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitor Reis |
| 58' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 58' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 64' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 75' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 81' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 83' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álex Moreno |
| 83' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 85' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 0.83 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.56 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.76 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.45 |
| Brais Méndez MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Gonçalo Guedes FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| Jon Karrikaburu Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |