Real Sociedad v Leganes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.93 – -0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
46.9%
Draw
29.0%
Leganes win
24.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDDDWLWW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.07 xGLeganes 0.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Leganes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 11' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Marín |
| 14' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Real Sociedad |
Naif Aguerd | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 16' |
 Leganes |
Raba | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 19' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 24' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 47' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jon Aramburu |
| 49' |
Leganes |
Juan Cruz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Leganes |
Sergio González | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Seydouba Cissé |
| 54' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yvan Neyou |
| 60' |
Leganes |
Óscar Rodríguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrià Alti |
| 64' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 65' |
Leganes |
Miguel De la Fuente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raba |
| 76' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto López |
| 79' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Jon Martín |
| 82' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 87' |
Leganes |
Roberto López | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Leganes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raba FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Sergio González DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yvan Neyou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Valentin Rosier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Matija Nastasic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Renato Tapia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seydouba Cissé MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Adrià Alti DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Juan Cruz DL | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Diego García FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel De la Fuente Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Óscar Rodríguez Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Roberto López Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Javi Hernández Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Duk Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Marín MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Gómez ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Jon Martín Sub | 59 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Arsen Zakharyan MC | 49 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Luken Beitia Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |