Real Sociedad v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.40 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.96 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
56.5%
Draw
23.6%
Levante win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.92–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–1.14 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 2.96 xGLevante 0.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 10' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 15' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 18' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 23' |
 Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oriol Rey |
| 28' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 29' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.81 | From Corner | — | Goal | Carlos Soler |
| 32' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iker Losada |
| 37' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 39' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 49' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 59' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 64' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Víctor García |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Carlos Soler |
| 75' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 80' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ugo Raghouber |
| 82' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.87 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Marín |
| 88' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Romero |
| 93' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrián De la Fuente |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.15 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 1.43 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luka Sucic AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| Brais Méndez Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Aritz Elustondo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibai Aguirre Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Víctor García AMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Kareem Tunde AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oriol Rey DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iker Losada AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pablo Martínez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Iván Romero Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Ugo Raghouber Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Tai Abed Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |