Real Sociedad v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.73 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
46.9%
Draw
24.0%
Real Betis win
29.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.67–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.34 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 2.73 xGReal Betis 1.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 5' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 9' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 22' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 26' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 30' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 31' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sergi Altimira |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 69' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 79' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Gómez |
| 84' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Roca |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nelson Deossa |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Gorka Carrera | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.84 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 1.20 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Antony AMR | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.12 | 1.09 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Isco Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sofyan Amrabat Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Héctor Bellerín Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1.33 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.69 | 1.28 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 1.72 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Aritz Elustondo DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Gorka Carrera Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |