Real Sociedad v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 9
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.71 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.80 – -0.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
36.1%
Draw
30.2%
Sevilla win
33.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 0.80 xGSevilla 1.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 Real Sociedad |
Igor Zubeldia | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 20' |
Real Sociedad |
Naif Aguerd | 0.27 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 23' |
Real Sociedad |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 31' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
 Sevilla |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 32' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 42' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 53' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 61' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 66' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 77' |
Sevilla |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 77' |
Sevilla |
Saúl Ñíguez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 91' |
Sevilla |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Ørjan Nyland GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dodi Lukebakio AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| Djibril Sow DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Saúl Ñíguez AMC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Chidera Ejuke AML | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Peque Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Unai Marrero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Gómez ML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.03 |
| Sheraldo Becker MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Zubimendi Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Hamari Traore Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |