Real Sociedad v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Real Sociedad

16:00 UTC

Sevilla

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 845h before kick-off

Real Sociedad win

47.0%

model 46.5%

Draw

26.5%

model 26.8%

Sevilla win

26.5%

model 26.7%

472626

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
1-0 12.6%
2-1 8.9%
0-1 8.9%
2-0 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.5%	Under 2.5	56.5%
BTTS yes	47.9%	BTTS no	52.1%
Real Sociedad 1+	75.7%	Real Sociedad 2+	41.3%
Sevilla 1+	63.3%	Sevilla 2+	26.5%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half

2nd half home goals O/U · usually 41%

58.4% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 734 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sevilla not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 81%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Real Sociedad carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1516.
Real Sociedad have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.63.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Real Sociedad average 1.44 xG a match.

Risk factors

Real Sociedad have scored 2.80 a match from 1.45 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Sociedad have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 26.5% for Sevilla. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Real Sociedad and 1.00 for Sevilla.

Why Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1516. Real Sociedad have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.63. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Real Sociedad average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Sevilla can win

Sevilla have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.92. Away from home Sevilla average 1.34 xG a match.

Key players

Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Carlos Soler (0.23). Sevilla's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.31), Neal Maupay (0.28), Lucas Stassin (0.23).

Availability

36% of Sevilla's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Sociedad: 47% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Sevilla: 40% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Sociedad are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DLLWDWLWWW last 10 scored 18 from 14.5 xG conceded 18 from 19.2 xG

Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWLDWWLDL last 10 scored 14 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 16.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462727	1.42–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502624	1.54–0.97	1-0 12%	46%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win	54.3%	51.5%	46.4%	1.11×	1.94
Draw	23.8%	24.5%	25.4%	0.97×	4.09
Sevilla to win	21.9%	24.5%	28.4%	0.86×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & not both score	30.2%	29.6%	24.8%	1.19×	3.38
Real Sociedad & both teams score	24.1%	21.8%	21.7%	1.00×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Sevilla & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	14.4%	0.92×	7.54
Sevilla & both teams score	10.6%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.54
Draw & not both score	6.6%	8.3%	5.3%	1.58×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad & over 1.5	42.9%	40.2%	33.9%	1.19×	2.49
Real Sociedad & under 3.5	36.4%	34.9%	32.4%	1.08×	2.87
Real Sociedad & over 2.5	33.2%	30.8%	28.0%	1.10×	3.25
Real Sociedad & under 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	18.5%	1.17×	4.63
Real Sociedad & over 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.9%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Sevilla & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Sevilla & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Real Sociedad & under 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Sevilla & over 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	17.2%	0.75×	7.79
Sevilla & under 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	11.3%	0.70×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.3%	1.51×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Sevilla & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Sevilla & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (1UP)	67.6%	70.2%	62.8%	1.12×	1.43
Sevilla (1UP)	39.3%	34.3%	47.2%	0.73×	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2UP)	54.3%	55.2%	48.1%	1.15×	1.81
Sevilla (2UP)	21.9%	23.6%	30.0%	0.79×	4.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.0%	36.2%	32.9%	1.10×	2.76
Real Sociedad to win 2nd half	35.2%	36.2%	39.6%	0.91×	2.77
Sevilla to win 2nd half	27.8%	26.1%	27.6%	0.94×	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	86.7%	84.2%	1.03×	1.15
Sevilla under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	52.6%	47.8%	1.10×	1.90
Sevilla over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	47.4%	52.2%	0.91×	2.11
Sevilla over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	13.3%	15.8%	0.84×	7.51

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	82.6%	79.6%	1.04×	1.21
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.1%	58.2%	59.1%	0.98×	1.72
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.9%	41.8%	40.9%	1.02×	2.39
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	17.4%	20.4%	0.86×	5.74

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (+2.5)	86.7%	88.5%	89.8%	0.98×	1.13
Real Sociedad (+0.5)	78.1%	78.5%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Sevilla (+1.5)	70.0%	73.6%	79.3%	0.93×	1.36
Real Sociedad (-0.5)	54.3%	52.4%	46.4%	1.13×	1.91
Sevilla (+0.5)	45.7%	47.6%	53.6%	0.89×	2.10
Real Sociedad (-1.5)	30.0%	26.4%	20.7%	1.28×	3.79
Sevilla (-0.5)	21.9%	21.5%	28.4%	0.76×	4.65
Real Sociedad (-2.5)	13.3%	11.5%	10.2%	1.13×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede	82.1%	81.5%	80.5%	1.01×	1.23
Sevilla clean sheet	17.9%	18.5%	19.5%	0.95×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede in 1st half	60.1%	64.2%	47.7%	1.35×	1.56
Sevilla clean sheet in 1st half	39.9%	35.8%	52.3%	0.68×	2.79

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to concede in 2nd half	55.1%	57.5%	59.1%	0.97×	1.74
Sevilla clean sheet in 2nd half	44.9%	42.5%	40.9%	1.04×	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 6.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sevilla under 5.5 corners	79.7%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Sevilla over 2.5 corners	67.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sevilla under 4.5 corners	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sevilla under 3.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sevilla over 3.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sevilla over 4.5 corners	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sevilla under 2.5 corners	32.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sevilla over 5.5 corners	20.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Sevilla over 6.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Sevilla under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	89.4%	1.03×	1.08
Sevilla under 1.5 goals	73.6%	71.9%	67.9%	1.06×	1.39
Sevilla over 0.5 goals	63.2%	63.2%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
Sevilla under 0.5 goals	36.8%	36.8%	29.9%	1.23×	2.72
Sevilla over 1.5 goals	26.4%	28.1%	32.1%	0.88×	3.55
Sevilla over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	10.6%	0.72×	13.06
Sevilla over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	2.9%	0.86×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla under 1.5 in 1st half	95.8%	96.0%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Sevilla under 0.5 in 1st half	72.4%	67.5%	63.2%	1.07×	1.48
Sevilla over 0.5 in 1st half	27.6%	32.5%	36.8%	0.88×	3.08
Sevilla over 1.5 in 1st half	4.2%	4.0%	7.3%	0.55×	25.24

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla scores equally in both	45.3%	48.0%	41.6%	1.16×	2.08
Sevilla scores more in 2nd half	39.1%	37.5%	37.7%	1.00×	2.67
Sevilla scores more in 1st half	15.5%	17.9%	20.8%	0.86×	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (away no bet)	69.5%	66.4%	64.7%	1.03×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.5%	33.6%	35.3%	0.95×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla even goals	56.8%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Sevilla odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.7%	82.9%	85.8%	0.97×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.1%	14.2%	1.21×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.4%	57.6%	62.5%	0.92×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.6%	42.4%	37.5%	1.13×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.8%	55.1%	52.6%	1.05×	1.82
Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row	43.7%	38.8%	34.5%	1.12×	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	19.6%	19.2%	1.02×	5.10
Sevilla to score 2+ in a row	18.6%	16.2%	23.9%	0.68×	6.16
Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	16.2%	13.1%	1.24×	6.17
Sevilla to score 3+ in a row	4.2%	2.6%	6.6%	0.40×	38.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad corners (+3.5)	93.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Sociedad corners (+2.5)	88.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Real Sociedad corners (+1.5)	82.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sevilla corners (+3.5)	69.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sevilla corners (+2.5)	58.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad corners (-1.5)	52.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sevilla corners (+1.5)	47.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Real Sociedad corners (-2.5)	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad corners (-3.5)	30.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sevilla corners (-1.5)	17.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sevilla corners (-2.5)	11.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sevilla corners (-3.5)	6.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.2%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 9.5 corners	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	44.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.8%	19.4%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.3%	11.5%	12.6%	0.91×	8.72
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	15.2%	0.76×	8.72
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-0	6.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
0-1	6.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.51
3-0	5.6%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	3.6%	2.04×	13.51
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.29
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.10×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.67×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.94×	58.32
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.63×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.89×	58.32
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.45×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.68×	58.32
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2nd half DNB)	55.9%	59.6%	58.9%	1.01×	1.68
Sevilla (2nd half DNB)	44.1%	40.4%	41.1%	0.98×	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB)	79.6%	75.3%	61.5%	1.22×	1.33
Sevilla leading at HT (DNB)	20.4%	24.7%	38.5%	0.64×	4.05

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw (1X)	78.1%	75.5%	71.6%	1.05×	1.32
Real Sociedad or Sevilla (12)	76.2%	75.5%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Sevilla or draw (X2)	45.7%	48.5%	53.6%	0.90×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw at HT	87.4%	88.3%	78.1%	1.13×	1.13
Real Sociedad or Sevilla at HT	61.9%	60.9%	56.8%	1.07×	1.64
Sevilla or draw at HT	50.8%	47.6%	65.0%	0.73×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw (1UP)	78.1%	83.8%	78.0%	1.07×	1.19
Sevilla or draw (1UP)	45.7%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half	72.2%	73.9%	72.4%	1.02×	1.35
Sevilla or draw in 2nd half	64.8%	63.8%	60.4%	1.06×	1.57
Real Sociedad or Sevilla in 2nd half	63.0%	63.8%	67.1%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.3%	62.1%	0.99×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.7%	37.9%	1.02×	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (DNB)	71.3%	71.4%	62.0%	1.15×	1.40
Sevilla (DNB)	28.7%	28.6%	38.0%	0.75×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score first	59.1%	62.3%	55.2%	1.13×	1.61
Sevilla to score first	34.3%	27.9%	39.7%	0.70×	3.59
No goal scored	6.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.8%	51.3%	55.8%	0.92×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.2%	48.7%	44.2%	1.10×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.5%	41.6%	40.8%	1.02×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.6%	38.4%	34.8%	1.10×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	15.2%	0.81×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	9.5%	1.31×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	85.6%	85.9%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	14.4%	14.1%	1.02×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.9%	73.7%	70.7%	1.04×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.1%	26.3%	29.3%	0.90×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.8%	65.7%	59.7%	1.10×	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	22.6%	21.0%	23.8%	0.88×	4.77
Both score 1st half only	12.1%	10.8%	11.1%	0.97×	9.28
Both score in both halves	4.5%	5.0%	5.6%	0.88×	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.4%	83.2%	83.4%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.6%	16.8%	16.6%	1.01×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.9%	53.1%	55.2%	0.96×	1.88
A half without a goal	45.1%	46.9%	44.8%	1.05×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.2%	49.3%	0.96×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.9%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.5%	22.9%	24.7%	0.93×	4.36
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	0.72×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla to score exactly 0	36.8%	35.9%	29.9%	1.20×	2.78
Sevilla to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	38.1%	0.94×	2.78
Sevilla to score exactly 2	18.4%	19.6%	21.6%	0.91×	5.11
Sevilla to score 3+	8.0%	8.6%	10.6%	0.80×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score exactly 1	30.8%	32.6%	38.3%	0.85×	3.07
Real Sociedad to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Real Sociedad to score 3+	24.8%	23.3%	19.7%	1.18×	4.29
Real Sociedad to score exactly 0	17.9%	18.8%	19.5%	0.96×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad leading at HT	49.2%	52.4%	35.0%	1.50×	1.91
Draw at HT	38.1%	39.1%	43.2%	0.90×	2.56
Sevilla leading at HT	12.6%	11.7%	21.9%	0.54×	8.52

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad -1: 2	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Real Sociedad -1: 1	30.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Real Sociedad -1: X	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:1)	45.7%	46.1%	53.6%	0.86×	2.17
Real Sociedad (0:1)	30.0%	27.0%	20.7%	1.31×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	24.3%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:2)	70.0%	75.6%	79.3%	0.95×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.7%	15.3%	10.6%	1.44×	6.56
Real Sociedad (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	10.2%	1.08×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:3)	86.7%	90.6%	89.8%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.4%	5.8%	7.1%	0.82×	17.21
Real Sociedad (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla (0:4)	95.2%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	81.80
Real Sociedad (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (1:0)	78.1%	78.6%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.1%	12.7%	17.5%	0.73×	7.87
Sevilla (1:0)	7.8%	6.9%	11.0%	0.63×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (2:0)	92.2%	94.0%	89.0%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	7.0%	0.91×	15.69
Sevilla (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	4.1%	0.56×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	45.8%	51.3%	0.89×	2.18
1st half highest scoring	31.8%	28.4%	25.8%	1.10×	3.53
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	23.1%	1.14×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede	63.2%	63.7%	70.1%	0.91×	1.57
Real Sociedad clean sheet	36.8%	36.3%	29.9%	1.21×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half	72.4%	66.8%	63.2%	1.06×	1.50
Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half	27.6%	33.2%	36.8%	0.90×	3.01

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half	50.9%	52.8%	47.8%	1.10×	1.90
Real Sociedad to concede in 2nd half	49.1%	47.2%	52.2%	0.90×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners	86.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners	66.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners	60.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners	54.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners	46.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners	39.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners	33.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners	13.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals	82.1%	82.2%	80.5%	1.02×	1.22
Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals	75.2%	77.7%	80.3%	0.97×	1.29
Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals	51.3%	53.2%	42.3%	1.26×	1.88
Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals	48.7%	46.8%	57.7%	0.81×	2.14
Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals	24.8%	22.3%	19.7%	1.13×	4.49
Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals	17.9%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63
Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	7.6%	1.03×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half	76.6%	77.0%	85.8%	0.90×	1.30
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half	60.1%	63.8%	47.7%	1.34×	1.57
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half	39.9%	36.2%	52.3%	0.69×	2.76
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half	23.4%	23.0%	14.2%	1.63×	4.34

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad scores more in 1st half	36.4%	37.8%	27.5%	1.37×	2.65
Real Sociedad scores equally in both	33.7%	33.2%	32.2%	1.03×	3.01
Real Sociedad scores more in 2nd half	29.9%	27.9%	40.4%	0.69×	3.58

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.1%	51.4%	47.2%	1.09×	1.95
Sevilla (home no bet)	47.9%	48.6%	52.8%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad even goals	51.6%	50.7%	47.4%	1.07×	1.97
Real Sociedad odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.9%	28.5%	32.2%	0.89×	3.51
HT 1-0	26.5%	28.4%	22.0%	1.29×	3.52
HT 2-0	12.2%	11.0%	6.7%	1.65×	9.11
HT 0-1	9.3%	6.9%	16.0%	0.43×	14.43
HT 1-1	8.6%	6.9%	10.1%	0.69×	14.44
Any other HT score	7.0%	6.9%	4.5%	1.55×	14.47
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.4%	3.0%	0.78×	41.95
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.4%	3.6%	0.65×	42.11
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.6%	1.45×	42.12
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	1.2%	2.03×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	39.6%	41.2%	26.2%	1.57×	2.43
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.7%	14.1%	0.90×	7.90
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	13.4%	12.7%	17.9%	0.71×	7.90
Draw at HT / Sevilla at FT	10.6%	12.6%	11.5%	1.10×	7.92
Sevilla at HT / Sevilla at FT	8.6%	6.1%	13.2%	0.46×	16.40
Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT	7.0%	6.1%	5.2%	1.18×	16.45
Sevilla at HT / Draw at FT	2.7%	3.5%	6.3%	0.55×	28.87
Real Sociedad at HT / Sevilla at FT	2.6%	3.5%	3.9%	0.90×	28.87
Sevilla at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	1.3%	3.5%	2.6%	1.34×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score last	59.1%	56.5%	54.9%	1.03×	1.77
Sevilla to score last	34.3%	32.6%	39.9%	0.82×	3.07
No goal scored	6.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.4%	92.7%	94.7%	0.98×	1.08
Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time	67.6%	69.4%	62.8%	1.11×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.3%	44.4%	41.9%	1.06×	2.25
Sevilla to lead by 1 at any time	39.3%	34.7%	47.2%	0.74×	2.88
Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time	36.3%	34.6%	26.5%	1.31×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.7%	14.9%	17.2%	0.87×	6.71
Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time	15.7%	14.9%	12.4%	1.20×	6.73
Sevilla to lead by 2 at any time	12.2%	10.5%	15.8%	0.66×	9.52
Sevilla to lead by 3 at any time	3.1%	1.6%	4.9%	0.33×	61.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad most corners	63.4%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Sevilla most corners	26.4%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.4%	78.7%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.3%	72.4%	72.9%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.6%	68.8%	69.3%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.4%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	61.1%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.0%	48.5%	47.7%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.5%	49.3%	0.98×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.3%	48.5%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.3%	43.6%	44.7%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.1%	39.2%	35.9%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.9%	30.2%	23.7%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.2%	24.5%	20.1%	1.22×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.9%	14.8%	11.9%	1.24×	6.76
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	2.6%	0.99×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad never behind	54.1%	62.5%	52.8%	1.18×	1.60
Sevilla never behind	25.8%	29.9%	37.2%	0.80×	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.8%	54.5%	0.95×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.2%	45.6%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.9%	49.3%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.1%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	93.8%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	85.6%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.5%	77.3%	75.4%	1.03×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.0%	72.5%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.1%	52.5%	50.1%	1.05×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.9%	47.5%	49.9%	0.95×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.0%	27.5%	26.2%	1.05×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.5%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	14.4%	0.86×	8.05
Under 0.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	5.3%	1.47×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	6.2%	1.25×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.4%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.6%	81.1%	83.7%	0.97×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.5%	67.5%	67.0%	1.01×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.8%	61.9%	65.6%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.2%	38.1%	34.4%	1.11×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.5%	32.5%	33.0%	0.99×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.4%	18.9%	16.3%	1.16×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	2.7%	1.05×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.1%	71.4%	67.8%	1.05×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.8%	63.3%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.2%	36.7%	30.0%	1.22×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.9%	28.6%	32.2%	0.89×	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.9%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.9%	79.0%	1.05×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	79.7%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	55.1%	53.3%	1.04×	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	44.9%	46.7%	0.96×	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	20.3%	17.9%	1.13×	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	21.0%	0.82×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to score in both halves	86.4%	85.5%	81.0%	1.05×	1.17
Real Sociedad not to score in both halves	66.9%	70.0%	73.7%	0.95×	1.43
Real Sociedad to score in both halves	33.1%	30.0%	26.3%	1.14×	3.34
Sevilla to score in both halves	13.6%	14.5%	19.0%	0.77×	6.88

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.8%	53.8%	55.8%	0.96×	1.86
Only Real Sociedad scores	30.2%	33.3%	24.8%	1.34×	3.01
Only Sevilla scores	11.3%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.07
Neither team scores	6.6%	7.1%	5.3%	1.36×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.4%	22.6%	25.4%	0.89×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.9%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	17.5%	11.9%	1.46×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.3%	0.92×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.6%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.8%	7.6%	6.2%	1.23×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	37.9%	0.98×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.9%	28.6%	32.2%	0.89×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.3%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.9%	10.9%	10.0%	1.10×	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.5%	44.8%	46.7%	0.96×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	33.7%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	22.8%	22.7%	17.9%	1.27×	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Real Sociedad not to win both halves	82.7%	83.8%	88.1%	0.95×	1.19
Real Sociedad to win both halves	17.3%	16.2%	11.9%	1.36×	6.18
Sevilla to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	5.4%	0.52×	35.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to win either half	67.1%	67.7%	62.6%	1.08×	1.48
Sevilla to win neither half	63.1%	65.0%	55.9%	1.16×	1.54
Sevilla to win either half	36.9%	35.0%	44.1%	0.79×	2.85
Real Sociedad to win neither half	32.9%	32.3%	37.4%	0.86×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sevilla not to win to nil	88.7%	88.1%	85.6%	1.03×	1.14
Real Sociedad not to win to nil	69.8%	69.7%	75.2%	0.93×	1.44
Real Sociedad to win to nil	30.2%	30.3%	24.8%	1.22×	3.30
Sevilla to win to nil	11.3%	11.9%	14.4%	0.83×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad by 1	24.3%	24.1%	25.8%	0.93×	4.15
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Real Sociedad by 2	16.7%	17.0%	10.6%	1.60×	5.87
Sevilla by 1	14.1%	11.8%	17.5%	0.67×	8.51
Real Sociedad by 3+	13.3%	11.8%	10.2%	1.16×	8.51
Sevilla by 2	5.6%	7.2%	7.0%	1.03×	13.91
Sevilla by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	4.1%	0.66×	36.87