Real Sociedad v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.63 – +1.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
33.2%
Draw
24.7%
Villarreal win
42.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.41 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.37 xGVillarreal 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 14' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 19' |
 Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafa Marín |
| 23' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.93 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alfonso |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Aritz Elustondo | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 47' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Umar Sadiq | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ayoze Pérez |
| 59' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Takefusa Kubo |
| 62' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 63' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 64' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 71' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 73' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 75' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 78' |
Villarreal |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 79' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 86' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Aritz Elustondo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Goti | 0.60 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Villarreal |
Tani Oluwaseyi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 94' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Villarreal |
Juan Foyth | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Daniel Parejo |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takefusa Kubo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Brais Méndez AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Gorka Carrera Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikel Goti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.06 | 1.14 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alfonso DL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Sergi Cardona Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ilias Akhomach Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |