Real Valladolid v Albacete — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.7%
- 0-1 12.6%
- 1-0 10.5%
- 0-0 9.2%
- 1-2 8.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.7% | Under 2.5 | 58.3% |
| BTTS yes | 47.0% | BTTS no | 53.0% |
| Real Valladolid 1+ | 65.4% | Real Valladolid 2+ | 28.7% |
| Albacete 1+ | 72.4% | Albacete 2+ | 36.9% |
Expected goals 1.06 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Albacete carry the stronger rating, 1470 Elo against 1341.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Albacete have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Real Valladolid and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.06 for Real Valladolid and 1.29 for Albacete.
Why Real Valladolid
Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. A combined 2.35 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.06 to 1.29. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Albacete can win
Albacete carry the stronger rating, 1470 Elo against 1341.
Key players
Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).
Availability
1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Albacete, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Albacete: 47% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Albacete are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.97–1.22 | 0-1 14% | 37% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.