Real Valladolid v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 10
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.78
Goals − xG
-0.84 – -0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Valladolid win
18.8%
Draw
22.3%
Celta Vigo win
58.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.97–1.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Valladolid 0.84 xGCelta Vigo 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Valladolid attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 10' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 15' |
 Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Florian Grillitsch |
| 22' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfon |
| 30' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anuar Mohamed |
| 45' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 48' |
Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 53' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfon |
| 75' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Real Valladolid |
Marcos de Sousa | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chuki |
| 78' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 82' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 83' |
Real Valladolid |
Marcos de Sousa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javi Sánchez |
| 91' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Darwin Machís |
| 95' |
Celta Vigo |
Damián Rodríguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fernando López |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Sergio Carreira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.80 |
| Carl Starfelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Alfon FWL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.79 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| Iago Aspas FWR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Fernando López Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damián Rodríguez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaílson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Moro ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mamadou Sylla FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Karl Hein GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Javi Sánchez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tamás Nikitscher DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Aznou DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Candela DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mario Martín MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Anuar Mohamed MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Florian Grillitsch MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Chuki Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 0.75 |
| Iván Sánchez Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Marcos de Sousa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Adrián Arnu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darwin Machís Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |