Real Valladolid v Córdoba — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 27 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Real Valladolid

12:00 UTC

Córdoba

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 432h before kick-off

Real Valladolid win

36.5%

model 36.7%

Draw

26.9%

model 25.4%

Córdoba win

36.6%

model 37.9%

362737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
0-1 9.6%
1-0 9.4%
1-2 8.3%
2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.1%	Under 2.5	49.9%
BTTS yes	54.2%	BTTS no	45.8%
Real Valladolid 1+	73.5%	Real Valladolid 2+	38.3%
Córdoba 1+	74.2%	Córdoba 2+	39.2%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

2-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 57%

62.2% fair odds 1.61

moderate signal · 3499 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Real Valladolid (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Córdoba carry the stronger rating, 1455 Elo against 1342.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Córdoba have an estimated 36.6% win probability, against 36.5% for Real Valladolid and 26.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Real Valladolid and 1.35 for Córdoba.

Why Real Valladolid

They have had 28 days' rest to Córdoba's 20.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.33 to 1.35. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Córdoba can win

Córdoba carry the stronger rating, 1455 Elo against 1342.

Key players

Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).

Availability

1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Córdoba, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Córdoba: 57% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Córdoba are the model's most likely outcome at 36.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.5 xG conceded 27 from 21.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372538	1.33–1.35	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	352639	1.27–1.35	1-1 12%	49%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to win	39.1%	36.3%	28.0%	1.30×	2.75
Real Valladolid to win	35.2%	36.3%	45.5%	0.80×	2.76
Draw	25.7%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba & not both score	21.1%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.58
Real Valladolid & not both score	18.9%	17.9%	23.6%	0.76×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.9%	17.5%	1.02×	5.58
Córdoba & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	14.7%	1.22×	5.58
Real Valladolid & both teams score	16.4%	17.9%	22.0%	0.82×	5.58
Draw & not both score	7.0%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba & over 1.5	29.0%	26.0%	19.4%	1.34×	3.84
Córdoba & under 3.5	28.2%	26.0%	19.6%	1.33×	3.84
Real Valladolid & over 1.5	25.7%	26.0%	32.6%	0.80×	3.84
Real Valladolid & under 3.5	25.8%	26.0%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Córdoba & over 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	16.6%	1.30×	4.63
Real Valladolid & over 2.5	19.9%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Córdoba & under 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	11.6%	1.56×	5.56
Real Valladolid & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Córdoba & over 3.5	10.9%	12.9%	8.5%	1.51×	7.76
Córdoba & under 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	8.7%	1.48×	7.76
Real Valladolid & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	13.0%	0.61×	12.65
Real Valladolid & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	13.3%	0.59×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (1UP)	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Real Valladolid (1UP)	51.8%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (2UP)	39.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Real Valladolid (2UP)	35.2%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Córdoba to win 2nd half	34.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Real Valladolid to win 2nd half	29.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Córdoba over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Córdoba under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Córdoba over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Córdoba (+1.5)	84.8%	82.5%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Córdoba (+0.5)	64.8%	62.9%	54.5%	1.15×	1.59
Real Valladolid (+0.5)	60.9%	62.9%	72.0%	0.87×	1.59
Córdoba (-0.5)	39.1%	37.1%	28.0%	1.32×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-0.5)	35.2%	37.1%	45.5%	0.81×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-1.5)	15.2%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.71
Real Valladolid (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to concede	71.9%	76.6%	77.5%	0.99×	1.31
Córdoba clean sheet	28.1%	23.4%	22.5%	1.04×	4.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba clean sheet in 1st half	57.9%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Córdoba to concede in 1st half	42.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to concede in 2nd half	51.5%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Córdoba clean sheet in 2nd half	48.5%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba under 6.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Córdoba over 2.5 corners	78.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Córdoba under 5.5 corners	68.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Córdoba over 3.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Córdoba under 4.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Córdoba over 4.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Córdoba under 3.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Córdoba over 5.5 corners	31.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Córdoba under 2.5 corners	21.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Córdoba over 6.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba under 3.5 goals	95.1%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Córdoba under 2.5 goals	84.5%	81.4%	89.2%	0.91×	1.23
Córdoba over 0.5 goals	74.2%	71.9%	67.3%	1.07×	1.39
Córdoba under 1.5 goals	60.8%	63.1%	69.4%	0.91×	1.59
Córdoba over 1.5 goals	39.2%	36.9%	30.6%	1.21×	2.71
Córdoba under 0.5 goals	25.8%	28.1%	32.7%	0.86×	3.56
Córdoba over 2.5 goals	15.5%	18.6%	10.8%	1.72×	5.37
Córdoba over 3.5 goals	4.9%	2.5%	3.0%	0.82×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Córdoba under 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Córdoba over 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Córdoba over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba scores more in 2nd half	38.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Córdoba scores equally in both	38.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Córdoba scores more in 1st half	22.5%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (away no bet)	57.9%	57.3%	63.1%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.1%	42.7%	36.9%	1.16×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba even goals	53.3%	52.8%	54.7%	0.96×	1.89
Córdoba odd goals	46.7%	47.2%	45.3%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.5%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.5%	12.3%	—	—	8.11

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.4%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Córdoba to score 2+ in a row	31.1%	29.0%	—	—	3.44
Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row	28.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Córdoba to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	5.7%	—	—	17.55
Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.67

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid corners (+3.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Córdoba corners (+3.5)	81.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Real Valladolid corners (+2.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Córdoba corners (+2.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Real Valladolid corners (+1.5)	69.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Córdoba corners (+1.5)	63.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Real Valladolid corners (-1.5)	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Córdoba corners (-1.5)	30.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Real Valladolid corners (-2.5)	26.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Córdoba corners (-2.5)	21.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Real Valladolid corners (-3.5)	18.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Córdoba corners (-3.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	35.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	31.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	26.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	19.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.4%	11.2%	1.02×	8.74
0-1	10.1%	11.4%	8.7%	1.31×	8.74
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	13.0%	0.57×	13.50
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.50
0-0	7.0%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
0-2	6.6%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.50
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.50
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.50
0-3	3.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.31
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	8.16×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.31
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.44×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.16×	58.32
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (2nd half DNB)	54.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Real Valladolid (2nd half DNB)	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB)	50.3%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Córdoba leading at HT (DNB)	49.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or Córdoba (12)	74.3%	72.2%	73.4%	0.98×	1.39
Córdoba or draw (X2)	64.8%	63.7%	54.5%	1.17×	1.57
Real Valladolid or draw (1X)	60.9%	63.7%	72.0%	0.88×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or draw at HT	72.3%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Córdoba or draw at HT	72.0%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Real Valladolid or Córdoba at HT	55.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba or draw (1UP)	64.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Real Valladolid or draw (1UP)	60.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba or draw in 2nd half	70.5%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half	65.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Real Valladolid or Córdoba in 2nd half	64.0%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (DNB)	52.6%	50.9%	38.1%	1.33×	1.97
Real Valladolid (DNB)	47.4%	49.1%	61.9%	0.79×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to score first	48.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Real Valladolid to score first	45.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	7.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.0%	51.4%	54.0%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.0%	48.6%	46.0%	1.06×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.9%	41.6%	42.9%	0.97×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	39.1%	38.5%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.8%	85.6%	85.6%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.2%	14.4%	14.4%	1.00×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	5.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.90

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.5%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.5%	17.6%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	48.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.3%	41.4%	1.14×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.6%	26.6%	30.7%	0.87×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.1%	26.6%	26.6%	1.00×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	54.71

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to score exactly 1	35.0%	33.8%	36.9%	0.92×	2.96
Córdoba to score exactly 0	25.8%	27.4%	32.7%	0.84×	3.65
Córdoba to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.4%	19.9%	1.13×	4.47
Córdoba to score 3+	15.5%	19.6%	10.8%	1.81×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Real Valladolid to score exactly 0	28.1%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
Real Valladolid to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.2%	25.0%	0.93×	4.31
Real Valladolid to score 3+	13.6%	14.4%	17.1%	0.84×	6.94

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Real Valladolid leading at HT	28.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Córdoba leading at HT	27.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba -1: 1	60.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Córdoba -1: X	21.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Córdoba -1: 2	17.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (0:1)	64.8%	61.6%	54.5%	1.13×	1.62
Draw (0:1)	20.0%	24.2%	26.1%	0.93×	4.12
Real Valladolid (0:1)	15.2%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (0:2)	84.8%	83.0%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.0%	10.9%	12.0%	0.91×	9.18
Real Valladolid (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (0:3)	94.8%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.06
Real Valladolid (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.62
Real Valladolid (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.4%	2.84×	83.72

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (1:0)	60.9%	65.1%	72.0%	0.90×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	21.3%	21.8%	18.0%	1.22×	4.58
Córdoba (1:0)	17.8%	17.0%	10.2%	1.67×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (2:0)	82.2%	84.5%	89.8%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.4%	10.4%	7.0%	1.48×	9.63
Córdoba (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	3.3%	1.98×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede	74.2%	73.1%	67.3%	1.09×	1.37
Real Valladolid clean sheet	25.8%	26.9%	32.7%	0.82×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half	58.2%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half	41.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede in 2nd half	55.6%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 2nd half	44.4%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners	63.7%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners	50.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners	49.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners	36.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals	96.0%	96.3%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals	86.4%	87.2%	82.9%	1.05×	1.15
Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals	71.9%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals	63.8%	63.5%	58.0%	1.10×	1.57
Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals	36.3%	36.5%	42.0%	0.87×	2.74
Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals	28.1%	25.8%	22.5%	1.15×	3.88
Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals	13.6%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.82
Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals	4.0%	3.7%	6.3%	0.58×	27.27

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half	57.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half	42.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid scores equally in both	40.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Real Valladolid scores more in 2nd half	35.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Real Valladolid scores more in 1st half	24.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba (home no bet)	60.4%	60.0%	51.3%	1.17×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.6%	40.0%	48.7%	0.82×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid even goals	53.9%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Real Valladolid odd goals	46.1%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	18.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 0-1	18.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-1	9.9%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 2-0	5.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.50
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba at HT / Córdoba at FT	21.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	20.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Córdoba at FT	15.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	13.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Córdoba at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Real Valladolid at HT / Córdoba at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Córdoba at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to score last	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Real Valladolid to score last	45.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	7.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Córdoba to lead by 1 at any time	55.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time	51.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Córdoba to lead by 2 at any time	23.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Córdoba to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.07
Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.13

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid most corners	47.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Córdoba most corners	41.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.4%	83.4%	78.0%	1.07×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.6%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.3%	68.9%	64.3%	1.07×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.1%	68.9%	62.9%	1.10×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.4%	56.5%	1.12×	1.58
3-6 goals	46.9%	48.6%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.6%	41.4%	1.17×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.3%	43.6%	41.9%	1.04×	2.30
3-5 goals	43.7%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.1%	39.2%	36.2%	1.08×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.1%	30.3%	26.6%	1.14×	3.31
4-5 goals	21.8%	24.5%	23.0%	1.07×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.8%	14.8%	11.5%	1.30×	6.74
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	1.6%	1.62×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba never behind	41.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Real Valladolid never behind	37.9%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	48.4%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	51.6%	0.95×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.9%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.0%	92.2%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.4%	87.6%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	72.5%	69.3%	1.05×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.1%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.3%	52.6%	50.9%	1.03×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	48.7%	47.4%	49.1%	0.97×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.9%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	27.5%	30.7%	0.90×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.6%	12.4%	12.9%	0.96×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.0%	7.8%	9.1%	0.85×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	5.1%	7.8%	5.1%	1.51×	12.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.5%	92.4%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.3%	86.7%	84.8%	1.02×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.6%	67.4%	64.5%	1.05×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.7%	61.9%	61.5%	1.01×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.3%	38.1%	38.5%	0.99×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.4%	32.6%	35.5%	0.92×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.7%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.5%	7.6%	5.6%	1.36×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.6%	1.71×	35.87

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.4%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.3%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.7%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.7%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Córdoba not to score in both halves	76.8%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Córdoba to score in both halves	23.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Real Valladolid to score in both halves	21.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.0%	53.9%	54.0%	1.00×	1.86
Only Córdoba scores	21.1%	22.3%	13.4%	1.66×	4.49
Only Real Valladolid scores	18.9%	16.0%	23.6%	0.68×	6.23
Neither team scores	7.0%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.7%	22.6%	20.4%	1.11×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.6%	17.4%	21.6%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.79×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	7.9%	0.97×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.0%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.08
6 or more goals	5.1%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.09

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	33.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	19.9%	15.3%	—	—	6.53
3+ goals in 1st half	9.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win both halves	91.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Córdoba not to win both halves	90.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Córdoba to win both halves	9.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Real Valladolid to win both halves	8.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.54

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Córdoba to win either half	52.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Real Valladolid to win neither half	50.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Real Valladolid to win either half	49.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Córdoba to win neither half	47.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win to nil	81.1%	83.1%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Córdoba not to win to nil	78.9%	78.1%	86.6%	0.90×	1.28
Córdoba to win to nil	21.1%	21.9%	13.4%	1.63×	4.57
Real Valladolid to win to nil	18.9%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.7%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Córdoba by 1	21.3%	24.2%	18.0%	1.35×	4.14
Real Valladolid by 1	20.0%	24.2%	26.1%	0.93×	4.14
Córdoba by 2	11.4%	11.8%	7.0%	1.67×	8.50
Real Valladolid by 2	10.0%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.50
Córdoba by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	3.3%	2.22×	13.81
Real Valladolid by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.82