Real Valladolid v Las Palmas — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 4
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 1
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.19 – +0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Valladolid win
28.9%
Draw
25.5%
Las Palmas win
45.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWWLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–1.54 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Valladolid 2.19 xGLas Palmas 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Valladolid attacking right
Las Palmas attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Las Palmas |
Viti Rozada | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Las Palmas |
Sandro Ramírez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Oliver McBurnie |
| 24' |
 Real Valladolid |
Selim Amallah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raul Moro |
| 25' |
Real Valladolid |
Anuar Mohamed | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Raul Moro |
| 31' |
Real Valladolid |
Javi Sánchez | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Las Palmas |
José Campaña | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 37' |
Real Valladolid |
Tamás Nikitscher | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Sánchez |
| 41' |
Real Valladolid |
Antonio Candela | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Grillitsch |
| 48' |
Las Palmas |
Dário Essugo | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandro Ramírez |
| 51' |
Real Valladolid |
Marcos de Sousa | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anuar Mohamed |
| 62' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.51 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Marcos de Sousa |
| 64' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Martín |
| 65' |
Real Valladolid |
Florian Grillitsch | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raul Moro |
| 67' |
Real Valladolid |
Javi Sánchez | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 71' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 75' |
Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Grillitsch |
| 76' |
Real Valladolid |
Marcos de Sousa | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Martín |
| 76' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Latasa |
| 77' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Aznou |
| 78' |
Real Valladolid |
Florian Grillitsch | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Pérez |
| 85' |
Real Valladolid |
Adam Aznou | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Grillitsch |
| 95' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raul Moro |
Players
Las Palmas
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dário Essugo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Viti Rozada DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| José Campaña DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Álex Muñoz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jasper Cillessen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Muñoz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sandro Ramírez AMR | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Juan Herzog Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Moleiro AML | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Mika Mármol DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Bajcetic Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver McBurnie FW | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Scott McKenna DC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaime Mata Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benito Ramírez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Moro AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| Florian Grillitsch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.85 |
| Javi Sánchez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.55 |
| Adam Aznou DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Karl Hein GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marcos de Sousa FW | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| Antonio Candela DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Selim Amallah AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tamás Nikitscher DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Anuar Mohamed AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Iván Sánchez Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| Juan Latasa Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.78 |
| Luis Pérez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Mamadou Sylla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |