Real Valladolid v Leganes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Real Valladolid

20:00 UTC

Leganes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 153h before kick-off

Real Valladolid win

39.9%

model 39.5%

Draw

28.9%

model 27.4%

Leganes win

31.2%

model 33.1%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
1-0 12.2%
0-1 11.0%
0-0 9.3%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.4%	Under 2.5	58.6%
BTTS yes	47.1%	BTTS no	52.9%
Real Valladolid 1+	70.9%	Real Valladolid 2+	35.0%
Leganes 1+	66.8%	Leganes 2+	30.2%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

61/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Leganes (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Valladolid have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Leganes and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for Real Valladolid and 1.10 for Leganes.

Why Real Valladolid

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. A combined 2.34 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.24 to 1.10. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Leganes can win

Leganes carry the stronger rating, 1429 Elo against 1342. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22). Leganes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Raba (0.38), Miguel De la Fuente (0.20), Diego García (0.19).

Availability

1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Leganes's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Leganes: 41% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Valladolid are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 61/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.5 xG conceded 27 from 21.3 xG

Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLDDDWLWW last 10 scored 13 from 13.3 xG conceded 13 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402733	1.24–1.10	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332938	1.04–1.12	0-1 13%	37%	43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to win	37.7%	36.3%	28.1%	1.29×	2.75
Real Valladolid to win	33.4%	30.4%	45.5%	0.67×	3.29
Draw	28.8%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes & not both score	24.2%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
Real Valladolid & not both score	21.3%	21.8%	23.6%	0.92×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Leganes & both teams score	13.5%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.54
Real Valladolid & both teams score	12.1%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes & under 3.5	30.8%	30.7%	19.6%	1.57×	3.25
Real Valladolid & under 3.5	27.6%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Leganes & over 1.5	24.5%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Real Valladolid & over 1.5	21.1%	21.6%	32.6%	0.66×	4.63
Leganes & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	11.5%	1.87×	4.63
Real Valladolid & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.55
Leganes & over 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	16.7%	1.08×	5.56
Real Valladolid & over 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Leganes & under 1.5	13.3%	12.8%	8.7%	1.48×	7.79
Real Valladolid & under 1.5	12.3%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Leganes & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Real Valladolid & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.4%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.4%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (1UP)	51.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Real Valladolid (1UP)	47.4%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (2UP)	37.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Real Valladolid (2UP)	33.4%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Leganes to win 2nd half	32.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Real Valladolid to win 2nd half	27.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.4%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Leganes under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Leganes over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Leganes over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.6%	13.0%	—	—	7.69

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.1%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.9%	11.2%	—	—	8.96

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (+2.5)	96.3%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Leganes (+1.5)	87.3%	88.5%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Leganes (+0.5)	66.6%	68.7%	54.5%	1.26×	1.46
Real Valladolid (+0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	71.9%	0.88×	1.59
Leganes (-0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	28.1%	1.32×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-0.5)	33.4%	31.3%	45.5%	0.69×	3.19
Real Valladolid (-1.5)	12.7%	11.5%	19.6%	0.59×	8.67
Real Valladolid (-2.5)	3.7%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to concede	64.5%	67.6%	77.6%	0.87×	1.48
Leganes clean sheet	35.5%	32.4%	22.4%	1.44×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes clean sheet in 1st half	64.1%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Leganes to concede in 1st half	35.9%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes clean sheet in 2nd half	55.4%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Leganes to concede in 2nd half	44.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 6.5 corners	93.9%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Leganes under 5.5 corners	87.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Leganes under 4.5 corners	77.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Leganes under 3.5 corners	62.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Leganes over 2.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Leganes under 2.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Leganes over 3.5 corners	37.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Leganes over 4.5 corners	22.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Leganes over 5.5 corners	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Leganes over 6.5 corners	6.1%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Leganes under 2.5 goals	89.6%	87.8%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
Leganes under 1.5 goals	69.1%	68.0%	69.4%	0.98×	1.47
Leganes over 0.5 goals	67.4%	68.0%	67.4%	1.01×	1.47
Leganes under 0.5 goals	32.6%	32.0%	32.6%	0.98×	3.13
Leganes over 1.5 goals	30.9%	32.0%	30.6%	1.04×	3.13
Leganes over 2.5 goals	10.4%	12.2%	10.9%	1.12×	8.21
Leganes over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.83

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 1st half	92.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Leganes under 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Leganes over 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Leganes over 1.5 in 1st half	7.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.46

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes scores equally in both	43.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Leganes scores more in 2nd half	35.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Leganes scores more in 1st half	21.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (away no bet)	53.7%	51.7%	63.2%	0.82×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	46.3%	48.3%	36.8%	1.31×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes even goals	55.3%	56.9%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Leganes odd goals	44.7%	43.1%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.9%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.1%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	50.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	49.7%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	43.6%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Leganes to score 2+ in a row	25.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row	22.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Leganes to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.21
Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row	5.6%	5.5%	—	—	18.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid corners (+3.5)	97.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Real Valladolid corners (+2.5)	94.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid corners (+1.5)	90.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid corners (-1.5)	65.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Leganes corners (+3.5)	56.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Valladolid corners (-2.5)	54.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Leganes corners (+2.5)	45.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Real Valladolid corners (-3.5)	43.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Leganes corners (+1.5)	34.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Leganes corners (-1.5)	9.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Leganes corners (-2.5)	5.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Leganes corners (-3.5)	2.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.48

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	55.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	44.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.3%	11.5%	8.7%	1.32×	8.71
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
1-0	12.3%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.71
0-0	11.3%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-2	7.3%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-1	7.0%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.51
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.30
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.05×	58.31
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.30
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.31
3-1	2.4%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (2nd half DNB)	54.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Real Valladolid (2nd half DNB)	45.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes leading at HT (DNB)	50.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB)	49.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or Leganes (12)	71.2%	72.1%	73.5%	0.98×	1.39
Leganes or draw (X2)	66.6%	69.6%	54.5%	1.28×	1.44
Real Valladolid or draw (1X)	62.3%	63.7%	71.9%	0.89×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes or draw at HT	74.8%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Real Valladolid or draw at HT	74.6%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Real Valladolid or Leganes at HT	50.6%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes or draw (1UP)	66.6%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Real Valladolid or draw (1UP)	62.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half	67.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Real Valladolid or Leganes in 2nd half	59.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	70.2%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	29.8%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (DNB)	53.0%	50.9%	38.2%	1.33×	1.96
Real Valladolid (DNB)	47.0%	49.1%	61.8%	0.79×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score first	46.1%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Real Valladolid to score first	42.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	11.3%	9.5%	—	—	10.48

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.8%	55.0%	45.9%	1.20×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.2%	45.0%	54.1%	0.83×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	50.3%	47.2%	39.7%	1.19×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	30.1%	34.5%	43.0%	0.80×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	6.5%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.4%	89.0%	85.6%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.6%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.3%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.7%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	18.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.67
Both score 1st half only	10.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	2.8%	4.9%	—	—	20.59

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.1%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	12.9%	15.1%	—	—	6.64

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	57.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
A goal in each half	42.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.9%	47.2%	41.3%	1.14×	2.12
0-1 goals	36.8%	35.0%	30.6%	1.14×	2.86
4-6 goals	16.6%	20.2%	26.7%	0.76×	4.95
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	1.6%	1.17×	54.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Leganes to score exactly 0	32.6%	33.8%	32.6%	1.04×	2.96
Leganes to score exactly 2	20.5%	22.3%	19.8%	1.12×	4.49
Leganes to score 3+	10.4%	12.9%	10.9%	1.18×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Real Valladolid to score exactly 0	35.5%	35.5%	22.4%	1.58×	2.81
Real Valladolid to score exactly 2	19.0%	18.8%	24.9%	0.75×	5.32
Real Valladolid to score 3+	8.7%	10.4%	17.2%	0.60×	9.65

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.4%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Leganes leading at HT	25.4%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Real Valladolid leading at HT	25.2%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes -1: 1	62.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Leganes -1: X	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Leganes -1: 2	15.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:1)	66.6%	65.2%	54.5%	1.20×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13
Real Valladolid (0:1)	12.7%	13.7%	19.6%	0.70×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:2)	87.3%	87.1%	80.4%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.0%	7.7%	12.1%	0.64×	13.04
Real Valladolid (0:2)	3.7%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.68

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:3)	96.3%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	5.3%	0.45×	42.01
Real Valladolid (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.83
Real Valladolid (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.4%	2.91×	81.88

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (1:0)	62.3%	65.3%	71.9%	0.91×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	22.4%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.61
Leganes (1:0)	15.3%	17.1%	10.3%	1.66×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (2:0)	84.7%	84.6%	89.7%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.5%	10.3%	7.1%	1.44×	9.73
Leganes (2:0)	4.8%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.2%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede	67.4%	66.7%	67.4%	0.99×	1.50
Real Valladolid clean sheet	32.6%	33.3%	32.6%	1.02×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 2nd half	51.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Real Valladolid to concede in 2nd half	49.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners	90.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners	80.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners	68.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners	58.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners	41.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners	31.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners	19.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners	9.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals	97.9%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	82.8%	1.11×	1.09
Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals	72.3%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals	64.5%	63.6%	77.6%	0.82×	1.57
Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals	35.5%	36.4%	22.4%	1.62×	2.75
Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals	27.7%	25.8%	42.0%	0.61×	3.88
Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	17.2%	0.45×	12.82
Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals	2.1%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half	92.6%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half	64.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half	35.9%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half	7.4%	5.2%	—	—	19.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid scores equally in both	45.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Real Valladolid scores more in 2nd half	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Real Valladolid scores more in 1st half	22.4%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (home no bet)	56.7%	56.4%	51.4%	1.10×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	43.3%	43.6%	48.6%	0.90×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid even goals	56.3%	55.3%	51.7%	1.07×	1.81
Real Valladolid odd goals	43.7%	44.7%	48.3%	0.93×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 0-1	18.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	18.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	8.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 2-0	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
Any other HT score	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.26
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 2-1	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes at HT / Leganes at FT	19.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Leganes at FT	16.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Leganes at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Real Valladolid at HT / Leganes at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Leganes at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score last	46.1%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Real Valladolid to score last	42.6%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	11.3%	8.9%	—	—	11.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.7%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Leganes to lead by 1 at any time	51.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time	47.4%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.4%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Leganes to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time	16.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.46
Leganes to lead by 3 at any time	5.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.11
Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.6%	—	—	60.76

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid most corners	75.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Leganes most corners	15.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.3%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.0%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.5%	72.3%	62.8%	1.15×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.5%	63.3%	67.9%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.9%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.4%	59.1%	56.6%	1.04×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.2%	53.2%	41.8%	1.27×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.9%	48.4%	41.3%	1.17×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.9%	39.2%	47.7%	0.82×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.3%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	29.8%	30.2%	36.4%	0.83×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.6%	18.8%	26.7%	0.70×	5.31
4-5 goals	14.9%	14.8%	23.2%	0.64×	6.75
5-6 goals	6.1%	8.9%	11.4%	0.78×	11.27
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	1.6%	1.62×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes never behind	41.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Real Valladolid never behind	37.4%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	87.1%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	71.8%	1.15×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	63.4%	61.7%	50.8%	1.21×	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	63.2%	61.7%	69.4%	0.89×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	36.8%	38.3%	30.6%	1.25×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	36.6%	38.3%	49.2%	0.78×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	28.2%	0.63×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	12.9%	0.60×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	5.1%	0.89×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.6%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.4%	92.4%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.6%	75.9%	64.3%	1.18×	1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.2%	51.8%	38.4%	1.35×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.8%	48.2%	61.6%	0.78×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.4%	24.1%	35.7%	0.68×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.6%	7.6%	15.2%	0.50×	13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	1.6%	1.72×	35.66

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.8%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.5%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.1%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.1%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.9%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to score in both halves	84.0%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Leganes not to score in both halves	82.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Leganes to score in both halves	17.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
Real Valladolid to score in both halves	16.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.2%	46.6%	54.1%	0.86×	2.15
Only Leganes scores	24.2%	22.3%	13.4%	1.66×	4.49
Only Real Valladolid scores	21.3%	22.2%	23.6%	0.94×	4.50
Neither team scores	11.3%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	24.9%	20.3%	1.22×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	25.6%	24.9%	21.6%	1.15×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	19.3%	17.5%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.3%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.26
Exactly 4 goals	10.4%	12.1%	15.4%	0.79×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	7.9%	0.57×	22.33
6 or more goals	2.3%	4.5%	5.1%	0.87×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	16.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
3+ goals in 1st half	6.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.08

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.9%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.9%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	28.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win both halves	93.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Leganes not to win both halves	91.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Leganes to win both halves	8.2%	5.9%	—	—	17.07
Real Valladolid to win both halves	6.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.16

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to win neither half	54.4%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Leganes to win neither half	50.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Leganes to win either half	49.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Real Valladolid to win either half	45.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win to nil	78.7%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Leganes not to win to nil	75.8%	78.1%	86.6%	0.90×	1.28
Leganes to win to nil	24.2%	21.9%	13.4%	1.63×	4.57
Real Valladolid to win to nil	21.3%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.8%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.59
Leganes by 1	22.4%	24.1%	17.9%	1.35×	4.15
Real Valladolid by 1	20.7%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Leganes by 2	10.5%	11.8%	7.1%	1.65×	8.51
Real Valladolid by 2	9.0%	7.2%	12.1%	0.60×	13.90
Leganes by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.82
Real Valladolid by 3+	3.7%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.86