Real Valladolid v Real Sociedad II — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Real Valladolid

20:00 UTC

Real Sociedad II

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 849h before kick-off

Real Valladolid win

39.9%

model 39.2%

Draw

28.9%

model 27.1%

Real Sociedad II win

31.2%

model 33.6%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
1-0 11.8%
0-1 10.8%
0-0 8.9%
2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.5%	Under 2.5	57.5%
BTTS yes	48.0%	BTTS no	52.0%
Real Valladolid 1+	71.3%	Real Valladolid 2+	35.5%
Real Sociedad II 1+	67.8%	Real Sociedad II 2+	31.3%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Real Sociedad II (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Valladolid have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Real Sociedad II and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Real Valladolid and 1.13 for Real Sociedad II.

Why Real Valladolid

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. A combined 2.38 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.13. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Real Sociedad II can win

Real Sociedad II carry the stronger rating, 1469 Elo against 1342.

Key players

Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).

Availability

1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Real Sociedad II, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad II: 38% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Valladolid are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.5 xG conceded 27 from 21.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392734	1.25–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	352936	1.08–1.09	1-1 13%	37%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II to win	36.0%	36.4%	28.1%	1.29×	2.75
Real Valladolid to win	35.3%	36.3%	45.5%	0.80×	2.75
Draw	28.7%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II & not both score	22.9%	21.8%	13.4%	1.63×	4.58
Real Valladolid & not both score	22.4%	21.8%	23.6%	0.93×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.57
Real Sociedad II & both teams score	13.1%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.54
Real Valladolid & both teams score	12.8%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.1%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II & under 3.5	29.4%	26.1%	19.6%	1.33×	3.84
Real Valladolid & under 3.5	28.9%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.2%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.2%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Real Sociedad II & over 1.5	23.3%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Real Valladolid & over 1.5	22.7%	21.6%	32.6%	0.66×	4.63
Real Valladolid & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Real Sociedad II & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	11.5%	1.56×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Real Sociedad II & over 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	16.7%	1.08×	5.56
Real Valladolid & over 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Real Valladolid & under 1.5	12.6%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.79
Real Sociedad II & under 1.5	12.8%	12.8%	8.7%	1.48×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.1%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Real Valladolid & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.63
Real Sociedad II & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (1UP)	49.9%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Real Valladolid (1UP)	49.2%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (2UP)	36.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Real Valladolid (2UP)	35.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Real Sociedad II to win 2nd half	31.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Real Valladolid to win 2nd half	28.5%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.9%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Real Sociedad II under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Real Sociedad II over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.1%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.1%	13.3%	—	—	7.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.24
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.74

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (+2.5)	95.8%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Real Sociedad II (+1.5)	86.2%	88.5%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Real Sociedad II (+0.5)	64.7%	63.0%	54.5%	1.16×	1.59
Real Valladolid (+0.5)	64.0%	63.0%	71.9%	0.88×	1.59
Real Sociedad II (-0.5)	36.0%	37.1%	28.1%	1.32×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-0.5)	35.3%	37.0%	45.5%	0.81×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-1.5)	13.8%	11.5%	19.6%	0.59×	8.67
Real Valladolid (-2.5)	4.2%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.05

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II to concede	66.0%	72.3%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Real Sociedad II clean sheet	34.0%	27.7%	22.4%	1.23×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II clean sheet in 1st half	62.9%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Real Sociedad II to concede in 1st half	37.1%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II clean sheet in 2nd half	54.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Real Sociedad II to concede in 2nd half	45.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II under 6.5 corners	93.9%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Real Sociedad II under 5.5 corners	87.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Real Sociedad II under 4.5 corners	77.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Real Sociedad II under 3.5 corners	62.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Real Sociedad II over 2.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad II under 2.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad II over 3.5 corners	37.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Real Sociedad II over 4.5 corners	22.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Real Sociedad II over 5.5 corners	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Real Sociedad II over 6.5 corners	6.1%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Real Sociedad II under 2.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Real Sociedad II under 1.5 goals	70.1%	71.8%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Real Sociedad II over 0.5 goals	66.5%	68.0%	67.4%	1.01×	1.47
Real Sociedad II under 0.5 goals	33.5%	32.0%	32.6%	0.98×	3.13
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 goals	29.9%	28.2%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Real Sociedad II over 2.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.04
Real Sociedad II over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	3.0%	0.82×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II under 1.5 in 1st half	92.8%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Real Sociedad II under 0.5 in 1st half	64.6%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Real Sociedad II over 0.5 in 1st half	35.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 in 1st half	7.2%	6.2%	—	—	16.16

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II scores equally in both	43.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Real Sociedad II scores more in 2nd half	35.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Real Sociedad II scores more in 1st half	20.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (away no bet)	55.1%	57.4%	63.2%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.9%	42.6%	36.8%	1.16×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II even goals	55.6%	56.9%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Real Sociedad II odd goals	44.4%	43.1%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.7%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	50.7%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	49.3%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	43.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Real Sociedad II to score 2+ in a row	23.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row	23.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Real Sociedad II to score 3+ in a row	6.5%	5.5%	—	—	18.15
Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid corners (+3.5)	97.0%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Real Valladolid corners (+2.5)	94.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid corners (+1.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid corners (-1.5)	65.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Real Sociedad II corners (+3.5)	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Real Valladolid corners (-2.5)	53.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Real Sociedad II corners (+2.5)	46.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Real Valladolid corners (-3.5)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad II corners (+1.5)	35.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Real Sociedad II corners (-1.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Real Sociedad II corners (-2.5)	5.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Real Sociedad II corners (-3.5)	3.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.48

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.8%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 9.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	55.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 9.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.2%	19.4%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
0-1	12.8%	11.5%	8.7%	1.32×	8.72
1-0	12.6%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.72
0-0	11.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.51
1-2	7.4%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	6.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.51
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.30
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.31
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.32
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (2nd half DNB)	52.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Real Valladolid (2nd half DNB)	47.8%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB)	51.8%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Real Sociedad II leading at HT (DNB)	48.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or Real Sociedad II (12)	71.3%	72.1%	73.5%	0.98×	1.39
Real Sociedad II or draw (X2)	64.7%	63.7%	54.5%	1.17×	1.57
Real Valladolid or draw (1X)	64.0%	63.6%	71.9%	0.89×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or draw at HT	75.5%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Real Sociedad II or draw at HT	73.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Real Valladolid or Real Sociedad II at HT	50.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II or draw (1UP)	64.7%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Real Valladolid or draw (1UP)	64.0%	71.7%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II or draw in 2nd half	71.5%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half	68.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Real Valladolid or Real Sociedad II in 2nd half	59.7%	58.3%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	70.0%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	30.0%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (DNB)	50.5%	50.9%	38.2%	1.33×	1.97
Real Valladolid (DNB)	49.5%	49.1%	61.8%	0.80×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II to score first	44.8%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Real Valladolid to score first	44.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	11.1%	9.6%	—	—	10.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.4%	55.0%	45.9%	1.20×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.6%	45.0%	54.1%	0.83×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	49.9%	44.4%	39.7%	1.12×	2.25
Both score & over 2.5	30.5%	34.5%	43.0%	0.80×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	6.5%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.2%	89.0%	85.6%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.8%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.0%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.0%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.8%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	19.1%	15.1%	—	—	6.61
Both score 1st half only	10.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	2.9%	4.9%	—	—	20.52

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.9%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	57.4%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	42.6%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	41.3%	1.14×	2.12
0-1 goals	36.4%	35.1%	30.6%	1.15×	2.85
4-6 goals	16.8%	20.2%	26.7%	0.76×	4.95
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	1.6%	1.17×	54.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 0	33.5%	33.8%	32.6%	1.04×	2.96
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 2	20.0%	22.3%	19.8%	1.12×	4.49
Real Sociedad II to score 3+	9.8%	8.6%	10.9%	0.79×	11.67

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Real Valladolid to score exactly 0	34.0%	32.6%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Real Valladolid to score exactly 2	19.8%	18.8%	24.9%	0.75×	5.33
Real Valladolid to score 3+	9.5%	10.4%	17.2%	0.60×	9.66

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Real Valladolid leading at HT	26.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Real Sociedad II leading at HT	24.5%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II -1: 1	64.0%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Real Sociedad II -1: X	21.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Real Sociedad II -1: 2	14.3%	14.0%	—	—	7.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:1)	64.7%	61.4%	54.5%	1.13×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13
Real Valladolid (0:1)	13.8%	13.7%	19.6%	0.70×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:2)	86.2%	87.1%	80.4%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.7%	7.7%	12.1%	0.64×	13.03
Real Valladolid (0:2)	4.2%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.63

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:3)	95.8%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	5.3%	0.44×	42.09
Real Valladolid (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.08
Real Valladolid (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.4%	2.90×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (1:0)	64.0%	65.3%	71.9%	0.91×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.61
Real Sociedad II (1:0)	14.3%	12.7%	10.3%	1.24×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (2:0)	85.7%	88.5%	89.7%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.64
Real Sociedad II (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.2%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede	66.5%	66.7%	67.4%	0.99×	1.50
Real Valladolid clean sheet	33.5%	33.3%	32.6%	1.02×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half	64.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half	35.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 2nd half	51.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Real Valladolid to concede in 2nd half	48.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners	90.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners	80.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners	53.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners	46.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners	10.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals	97.6%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	82.8%	1.11×	1.08
Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals	70.7%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals	66.0%	67.9%	77.6%	0.88×	1.47
Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals	34.0%	32.1%	22.4%	1.43×	3.12
Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals	29.3%	25.8%	42.0%	0.61×	3.88
Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	17.2%	0.45×	12.85
Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals	2.4%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half	62.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	5.3%	—	—	18.99

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid scores equally in both	44.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Real Valladolid scores more in 2nd half	32.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Real Valladolid scores more in 1st half	22.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II (home no bet)	55.6%	56.4%	51.4%	1.10×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.4%	43.6%	48.6%	0.90×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid even goals	55.8%	55.3%	51.7%	1.07×	1.81
Real Valladolid odd goals	44.2%	44.7%	48.3%	0.93×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	18.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 0-1	17.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	8.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-0	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	41.92
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
Any other HT score	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-1	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Real Sociedad II at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT	15.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Real Sociedad II at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Real Sociedad II at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II to score last	44.8%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
Real Valladolid to score last	44.2%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	11.1%	9.0%	—	—	11.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.9%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Real Sociedad II to lead by 1 at any time	49.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time	49.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.6%	34.7%	—	—	2.89
Real Sociedad II to lead by 2 at any time	18.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time	18.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Real Sociedad II to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.05
Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time	5.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.06

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid most corners	75.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Real Sociedad II most corners	16.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.22
Corners level	8.5%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.0%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.4%	72.3%	62.8%	1.15×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.9%	63.3%	67.9%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	61.2%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.6%	59.1%	56.6%	1.04×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.9%	53.2%	41.8%	1.27×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	41.3%	1.17×	2.06
3-6 goals	36.3%	39.2%	47.7%	0.82×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.6%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	30.0%	35.2%	36.4%	0.97×	2.84
4-6 goals	16.8%	18.8%	26.7%	0.70×	5.31
4-5 goals	15.2%	18.8%	23.2%	0.81×	5.31
5-6 goals	6.3%	8.9%	11.4%	0.78×	11.28
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	1.6%	1.62×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad II never behind	39.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Real Valladolid never behind	39.0%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.1%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.9%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.6%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	87.1%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.9%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	82.5%	82.3%	71.8%	1.15×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	63.6%	61.7%	69.4%	0.89×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	63.0%	61.7%	50.8%	1.21×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	37.0%	38.3%	49.2%	0.78×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	36.4%	38.3%	30.6%	1.25×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	17.5%	17.7%	28.2%	0.63×	5.66
Under 0.5 goals	11.1%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	12.9%	0.60×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.4%	4.6%	5.1%	0.89×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.5%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.2%	92.4%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.2%	75.9%	64.3%	1.18×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.4%	51.9%	61.6%	0.84×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.6%	48.1%	38.4%	1.25×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.8%	24.1%	35.7%	0.68×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.8%	7.6%	15.2%	0.50×	13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.5%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	1.6%	1.72×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.2%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.78

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Real Sociedad II not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Real Valladolid to score in both halves	17.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Real Sociedad II to score in both halves	17.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.6%	46.6%	54.1%	0.86×	2.15
Only Real Sociedad II scores	22.9%	22.3%	13.4%	1.66×	4.49
Only Real Valladolid scores	22.4%	22.3%	23.6%	0.94×	4.49
Neither team scores	11.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	24.9%	20.3%	1.22×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	25.4%	24.9%	21.6%	1.15×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	19.5%	17.5%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	10.6%	12.1%	15.4%	0.79×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	4.6%	4.5%	7.9%	0.57×	22.35
6 or more goals	2.4%	4.5%	5.1%	0.87×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	16.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
3+ goals in 1st half	6.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.78

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.2%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
1 goal in 2nd half	35.9%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goals in 2nd half	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win both halves	92.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Real Sociedad II not to win both halves	92.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Real Sociedad II to win both halves	7.6%	5.9%	—	—	17.05
Real Valladolid to win both halves	7.5%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to win neither half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Real Sociedad II to win neither half	52.0%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Real Sociedad II to win either half	48.0%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Real Valladolid to win either half	47.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win to nil	77.6%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Real Sociedad II not to win to nil	77.1%	78.1%	86.6%	0.90×	1.28
Real Sociedad II to win to nil	22.9%	21.9%	13.4%	1.63×	4.57
Real Valladolid to win to nil	22.4%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.7%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.59
Real Valladolid by 1	21.4%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Real Sociedad II by 1	21.7%	24.1%	17.9%	1.34×	4.15
Real Valladolid by 2	9.7%	7.2%	12.1%	0.60×	13.90
Real Sociedad II by 2	9.9%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.89
Real Sociedad II by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.79
Real Valladolid by 3+	4.2%	2.7%	7.7%	0.36×	36.80