Real Valladolid v Tenerife — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Real Valladolid

20:00 UTC

Tenerife

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 1,161h before kick-off

Real Valladolid win

31.3%

model 34.7%

Draw

29.0%

model 29.9%

Tenerife win

39.7%

model 35.3%

312940

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 13.7%
1-0 13.6%
1-1 13.2%
0-0 12.8%
1-2 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	33.2%	Under 2.5	66.8%
BTTS yes	40.4%	BTTS no	59.6%
Real Valladolid 1+	63.6%	Real Valladolid 2+	26.8%
Tenerife 1+	64.0%	Tenerife 2+	27.2%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 51%

65.8% fair odds 1.52

strong signal · 1324 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Tenerife not to score in both halves

Score both halves

81.9% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 1008 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Tenerife carry the stronger rating, 1458 Elo against 1342.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Tenerife have an estimated 39.7% win probability, against 31.3% for Real Valladolid and 29.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.01 for Real Valladolid and 1.02 for Tenerife.

Why Real Valladolid

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.0%. A combined 2.03 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.01 to 1.02. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Tenerife can win

Tenerife carry the stronger rating, 1458 Elo against 1342.

Key players

Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).

Availability

1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Tenerife, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Tenerife: 46% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 8.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Tenerife are the model's most likely outcome at 39.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.5 xG conceded 27 from 21.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	353035	1.01–1.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	323136	0.90–0.98	0-1 15%	29%	37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to win	36.2%	36.3%	28.1%	1.29×	2.75
Real Valladolid to win	32.4%	30.4%	45.5%	0.67×	3.29
Draw	31.4%	30.4%	26.5%	1.15×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife & not both score	25.5%	25.2%	13.4%	1.88×	3.97
Real Valladolid & not both score	22.8%	21.8%	23.6%	0.92×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.4%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.57
Draw & not both score	15.0%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54
Tenerife & both teams score	10.7%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.54
Real Valladolid & both teams score	9.6%	8.3%	22.0%	0.38×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife & under 3.5	31.4%	30.7%	19.6%	1.57×	3.25
Real Valladolid & under 3.5	28.3%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	28.1%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	28.1%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
Tenerife & under 2.5	22.5%	21.6%	11.5%	1.87×	4.63
Tenerife & over 1.5	21.0%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Real Valladolid & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Real Valladolid & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	32.6%	0.55×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	16.4%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Tenerife & under 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	8.7%	2.07×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	15.0%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Real Valladolid & under 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.79
Tenerife & over 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	16.7%	0.77×	7.79
Real Valladolid & over 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Tenerife & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	8.6%	0.56×	20.81
Real Valladolid & over 3.5	4.1%	4.8%	13.4%	0.36×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	3.3%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.3%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (1UP)	48.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Real Valladolid (1UP)	44.7%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (2UP)	36.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Real Valladolid (2UP)	32.4%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Tenerife to win 2nd half	30.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
Real Valladolid to win 2nd half	25.8%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Tenerife under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.7%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Tenerife over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Tenerife over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	12.8%	—	—	7.80

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.5%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.7%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.5%	6.3%	—	—	15.78

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (+2.5)	97.1%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Tenerife (+1.5)	88.8%	88.5%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Tenerife (+0.5)	67.6%	68.7%	54.5%	1.26×	1.46
Real Valladolid (+0.5)	63.8%	63.0%	71.9%	0.88×	1.59
Tenerife (-0.5)	36.2%	37.0%	28.1%	1.32×	2.70
Real Valladolid (-0.5)	32.4%	31.3%	45.5%	0.69×	3.19
Real Valladolid (-1.5)	11.2%	11.5%	19.6%	0.59×	8.68
Real Valladolid (-2.5)	2.9%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.15

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to concede	59.5%	62.5%	77.6%	0.81×	1.60
Tenerife clean sheet	40.5%	37.5%	22.4%	1.67×	2.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife clean sheet in 1st half	67.8%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Tenerife to concede in 1st half	32.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife clean sheet in 2nd half	59.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Tenerife to concede in 2nd half	40.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 6.5 corners	92.3%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Tenerife under 5.5 corners	85.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Tenerife under 4.5 corners	74.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Tenerife over 2.5 corners	61.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Tenerife under 3.5 corners	58.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Tenerife over 3.5 corners	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Tenerife under 2.5 corners	38.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Tenerife over 4.5 corners	25.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Tenerife over 5.5 corners	14.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Tenerife over 6.5 corners	7.7%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Tenerife under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Tenerife under 1.5 goals	74.5%	71.9%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Tenerife over 0.5 goals	62.3%	63.2%	67.4%	0.94×	1.58
Tenerife under 0.5 goals	37.7%	36.8%	32.6%	1.13×	2.72
Tenerife over 1.5 goals	25.5%	28.1%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Tenerife over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.07
Tenerife over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.5%	3.0%	0.82×	39.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Tenerife under 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Tenerife over 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Tenerife over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.62

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife scores equally in both	46.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Tenerife scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Tenerife scores more in 1st half	20.0%	18.2%	—	—	5.48

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (away no bet)	50.8%	51.6%	63.2%	0.82×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	49.2%	48.4%	36.8%	1.31×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife even goals	57.1%	56.9%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Tenerife odd goals	42.9%	43.1%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.5%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.5%	7.9%	—	—	12.67

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	57.2%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Not both halves under 1.5	42.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	37.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Tenerife to score 2+ in a row	20.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row	18.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	9.5%	5.6%	—	—	18.01
Tenerife to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.34
Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row	4.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.37

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid corners (+3.5)	95.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Real Valladolid corners (+2.5)	91.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Real Valladolid corners (+1.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tenerife corners (+3.5)	66.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Real Valladolid corners (-1.5)	56.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Tenerife corners (+2.5)	55.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Valladolid corners (-2.5)	44.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Tenerife corners (+1.5)	43.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Real Valladolid corners (-3.5)	33.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Tenerife corners (-1.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Tenerife corners (-2.5)	8.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Tenerife corners (-3.5)	4.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	60.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	50.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	39.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	15.2%	13.8%	8.7%	1.59×	7.24
0-0	15.0%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-0	14.1%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.71
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
0-2	7.3%	7.4%	2.9%	2.52×	13.51
1-2	6.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
2-1	6.1%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.51
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
2-2	3.0%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-0	1.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.31
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
3-2	0.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.32
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
Any other score	0.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (2nd half DNB)	54.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Real Valladolid (2nd half DNB)	45.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife leading at HT (DNB)	50.1%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB)	49.9%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid or Tenerife (12)	68.6%	69.6%	73.5%	0.95×	1.44
Tenerife or draw (X2)	67.6%	69.6%	54.5%	1.28×	1.44
Real Valladolid or draw (1X)	63.8%	63.7%	71.9%	0.89×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw at HT	76.6%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Real Valladolid or draw at HT	76.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Real Valladolid or Tenerife at HT	47.0%	51.0%	—	—	1.96

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw (1UP)	67.6%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Real Valladolid or draw (1UP)	63.8%	71.7%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw in 2nd half	74.2%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half	69.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Real Valladolid or Tenerife in 2nd half	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Neither half drawn	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.53

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (DNB)	52.8%	50.9%	38.2%	1.33×	1.96
Real Valladolid (DNB)	47.2%	49.1%	61.8%	0.79×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score first	44.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
Real Valladolid to score first	40.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	15.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	63.3%	56.7%	45.9%	1.23×	1.77
Both teams to score	36.7%	43.3%	54.1%	0.80×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	57.8%	47.5%	39.7%	1.20×	2.11
Both score & over 2.5	23.6%	27.9%	43.0%	0.65×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	5.5%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.2%	89.0%	85.6%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	5.8%	11.0%	14.4%	0.76×	9.12

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.3%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.7%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.8%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Both score 2nd half only	15.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Both score 1st half only	8.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.67
Both score in both halves	1.9%	4.8%	—	—	20.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.7%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	10.3%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	64.1%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
A goal in each half	35.9%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	44.3%	42.2%	30.6%	1.38×	2.37
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.2%	41.3%	1.02×	2.37
4-6 goals	11.8%	16.9%	26.7%	0.63×	5.91
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.17×	54.53

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score exactly 0	37.7%	35.9%	32.6%	1.10×	2.78
Tenerife to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Tenerife to score exactly 2	17.9%	19.5%	19.8%	0.99×	5.12
Tenerife to score 3+	7.6%	8.5%	10.9%	0.78×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.5%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Real Valladolid to score exactly 0	40.5%	35.1%	22.4%	1.57×	2.85
Real Valladolid to score exactly 2	16.5%	18.8%	24.9%	0.75×	5.32
Real Valladolid to score 3+	6.4%	10.3%	17.2%	0.60×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	53.0%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Tenerife leading at HT	23.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Real Valladolid leading at HT	23.4%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife -1: 1	63.8%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Tenerife -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Tenerife -1: 2	13.4%	14.0%	—	—	7.16

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (0:1)	67.6%	65.3%	54.5%	1.20×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	21.2%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13
Real Valladolid (0:1)	11.2%	13.7%	19.6%	0.70×	7.31

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (0:2)	88.8%	87.1%	80.4%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.3%	7.7%	12.1%	0.64×	13.05
Real Valladolid (0:2)	2.9%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.73

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (0:3)	97.1%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	5.3%	0.45×	42.04
Real Valladolid (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (0:4)	99.4%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.85
Real Valladolid (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	0.4%	2.91×	81.89

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (1:0)	63.8%	65.3%	71.9%	0.91×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	22.8%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.61
Tenerife (1:0)	13.4%	12.7%	10.3%	1.24×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (2:0)	86.6%	88.5%	89.7%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.6%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.63
Tenerife (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	3.2%	0.70×	43.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.1%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Halves equal	31.0%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede	62.3%	63.6%	67.4%	0.94×	1.57
Real Valladolid clean sheet	37.7%	36.4%	32.6%	1.12×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half	67.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half	32.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 2nd half	55.7%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Real Valladolid to concede in 2nd half	44.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners	86.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners	74.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners	67.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners	60.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners	54.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners	45.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners	40.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners	32.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners	25.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners	13.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals	98.6%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals	93.6%	92.2%	82.8%	1.11×	1.08
Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals	77.1%	77.8%	58.0%	1.34×	1.29
Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals	59.5%	58.7%	77.6%	0.76×	1.71
Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals	40.5%	41.3%	22.4%	1.84×	2.42
Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals	22.9%	22.2%	42.0%	0.53×	4.50
Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	17.2%	0.45×	12.84
Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals	1.4%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.63

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.9%	—	—	1.05
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	5.1%	—	—	19.55

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid scores equally in both	49.0%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid scores more in 2nd half	29.9%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Real Valladolid scores more in 1st half	21.1%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (home no bet)	53.6%	51.5%	51.4%	1.00×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.4%	48.5%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid even goals	58.2%	55.3%	51.7%	1.07×	1.81
Real Valladolid odd goals	41.8%	44.7%	48.3%	0.93×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	45.8%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
HT 0-1	18.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	17.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	6.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
Any other HT score	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-1	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.39

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	23.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Tenerife at HT / Tenerife at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Tenerife at FT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Tenerife at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Real Valladolid at HT / Tenerife at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Tenerife at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score last	44.1%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
Real Valladolid to score last	40.9%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	15.0%	9.9%	—	—	10.08

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	85.0%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
Tenerife to lead by 1 at any time	48.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time	44.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	31.3%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Tenerife to lead by 2 at any time	16.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time	14.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Tenerife to lead by 3 at any time	4.5%	1.6%	—	—	60.88
Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	—	—	61.73

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid most corners	68.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Tenerife most corners	22.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.8%	83.4%	85.8%	0.97×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.8%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.9%	72.3%	62.8%	1.15×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.0%	59.1%	41.8%	1.41×	1.69
2-6 goals	55.4%	59.1%	67.9%	0.87×	1.69
2-5 goals	54.5%	53.2%	64.4%	0.83×	1.88
2-4 goals	51.5%	53.2%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
3-6 goals	28.7%	30.2%	47.7%	0.63×	3.31
3-5 goals	27.8%	30.2%	44.1%	0.68×	3.31
3-4 goals	24.8%	24.5%	36.4%	0.67×	4.09
4-6 goals	11.8%	14.8%	26.7%	0.55×	6.76
4-5 goals	10.9%	14.8%	23.2%	0.64×	6.76
5-6 goals	3.9%	2.6%	11.4%	0.22×	39.09
7+ goals	0.3%	2.5%	1.6%	1.62×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife never behind	40.4%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Real Valladolid never behind	36.9%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.4%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	39.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.3%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.7%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.7%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	87.1%	1.10×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	71.8%	1.22×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	85.0%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	70.9%	72.5%	50.8%	1.43×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	69.4%	0.84×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	30.6%	1.35×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	29.1%	27.5%	49.2%	0.56×	3.63
Under 0.5 goals	15.0%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 3.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	28.2%	0.44×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	12.9%	0.36×	21.81
Over 5.5 goals	1.3%	4.6%	5.1%	0.89×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.7%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.7%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.4%	97.2%	84.8%	1.15×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	85.4%	86.7%	64.3%	1.35×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.4%	61.9%	38.4%	1.61×	1.62
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.6%	38.1%	61.6%	0.62×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	14.6%	13.3%	35.7%	0.37×	7.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.6%	2.8%	15.2%	0.18×	35.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.3%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	35.64
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.3%	2.8%	1.6%	1.72×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.6%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	81.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Under 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Over 1.5 in 1st half	18.3%	14.3%	—	—	6.98
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.4%	3.6%	—	—	27.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.8%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.2%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.0%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	10.3%	—	—	9.72

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to score in both halves	87.0%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Tenerife not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Tenerife to score in both halves	14.3%	14.5%	—	—	6.89
Real Valladolid to score in both halves	13.0%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	36.7%	39.9%	54.1%	0.74×	2.51
Only Tenerife scores	25.5%	26.0%	13.4%	1.94×	3.84
Only Real Valladolid scores	22.8%	22.3%	23.6%	0.94×	4.49
Neither team scores	15.0%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.3%	24.9%	21.6%	1.15×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	24.9%	20.3%	1.22×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	16.9%	17.5%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	15.0%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	7.9%	7.6%	15.4%	0.49×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.0%	4.5%	7.9%	0.57×	22.35
6 or more goals	1.3%	4.5%	5.1%	0.87×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	45.8%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	13.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
3+ goals in 1st half	4.4%	3.6%	—	—	27.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
No goals in 2nd half	33.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win both halves	94.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Tenerife not to win both halves	92.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Tenerife to win both halves	7.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.14
Real Valladolid to win both halves	6.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.22

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to win neither half	56.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Tenerife to win neither half	53.2%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Tenerife to win either half	46.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Real Valladolid to win either half	43.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win to nil	77.2%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Tenerife not to win to nil	74.5%	75.3%	86.6%	0.87×	1.33
Tenerife to win to nil	25.5%	24.7%	13.4%	1.84×	4.05
Real Valladolid to win to nil	22.8%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	31.4%	27.7%	26.5%	1.04×	3.61
Tenerife by 1	22.8%	24.1%	17.9%	1.35×	4.15
Real Valladolid by 1	21.2%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Tenerife by 2	9.6%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.90
Real Valladolid by 2	8.3%	7.2%	12.1%	0.60×	13.91
Tenerife by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.85
Real Valladolid by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.88