Reims v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 13
On target
4 – 9
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.50
Goals − xG
-1.99 – +0.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Reims win
31.8%
Draw
27.9%
Auxerre win
40.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Reims 1.99 xGAuxerre 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Reims attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 7' |
Auxerre |
Jubal | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 7' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.15 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jubal |
| 14' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gaetan Perrin |
| 20' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 23' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.96 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 23' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 25' |
Auxerre |
Jubal | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 41' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | John Finn |
| 42' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 43' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 49' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 50' |
Reims |
John Finn | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Junya Ito |
| 55' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Reims |
Oumar Diakité | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Junya Ito |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Gabriel Osho | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 70' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mory Gbane |
| 71' |
Reims |
Joseph Okumu | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentin Atangana Edoa |
| 71' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Junya Ito |
| 72' |
Reims |
Amadou Koné | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 74' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 74' |
Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Junya Ito |
| 82' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Junya Ito |
| 87' |
Auxerre |
Elisha Owusu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 91' |
Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Amadou Koné |
| 93' |
Auxerre |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 94' |
Reims |
Amadou Koné | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joseph Okumu |
Players
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junya Ito AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.98 | 0.43 | 1.31 |
| Keito Nakamura AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 0.74 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.60 |
| Hiroki Sekine DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mory Gbane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Oumar Diakité FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| John Finn DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Teddy Teuma AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mamadou Diakhon Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Amadou Koné Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Nhoa Sangui Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ange Tia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| Jubal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Gabriel Osho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Gaetan Perrin MR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| Ki-Jana Hoever DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| Hamed Junior Traore ML | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Theo Bair FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Lassine Sinayoko Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Ado Onaiwu Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Joly Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Han-Noah Massengo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |