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Reims v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–2
1.45 – 1.64 xG
Shots
11 – 13
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-0.45 – +0.36
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Romain Faivre 3' — goalMama Baldé 17' — goalJoseph Okumu 28' — goal
Reims 1.45 xGBrest 1.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Luc Zogbe 1' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Soumaila Coulibaly 1' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Romain Faivre 3' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mama Baldé 17' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Keito Nakamura 22' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Yaya Fofana 25' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joseph Okumu 28' — Goal (0.12 xG, From Corner)Keito Nakamura 36' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Edimilson Fernandes 40' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yaya Fofana 43' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Junya Ito 46' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Edimilson Fernandes 47' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentin Atangana Edoa 52' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 60' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Kenny Lala 63' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Mama Baldé 68' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 75' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pierre Lees-Melou 78' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Amine Salama 80' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Joseph Okumu 83' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, From Corner)Emmanuel Agbadou 85' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joseph Okumu 86' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, From Corner)Jordan Amavi 93' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Pierre Lees-Melou 93' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Reims attacking right Brest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Brest Luc Zogbe 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ibrahim Salah
1' Brest Soumaila Coulibaly 0.07 From Corner Blocked Shot Romain Faivre
3' Brest Romain Faivre 0.76 Left Foot Goal
17' Brest Mama Baldé 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Romain Faivre
22' Reims Keito Nakamura 0.13 Set Piece Missed Shot Junya Ito
25' Reims Yaya Fofana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Emmanuel Agbadou
28' Reims Joseph Okumu 0.12 From Corner Goal Junya Ito
36' Reims Keito Nakamura 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Junya Ito
40' Brest Edimilson Fernandes 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ibrahim Salah
43' Reims Yaya Fofana 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Oumar Diakité
46' Reims Junya Ito 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Oumar Diakité
47' Brest Edimilson Fernandes 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
52' Reims Valentin Atangana Edoa 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
60' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ludovic Ajorque
63' Brest Kenny Lala 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
68' Brest Mama Baldé 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Ibrahim Salah
75' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Amavi
78' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ludovic Ajorque
80' Reims Amine Salama 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Junya Ito
83' Reims Joseph Okumu 0.38 From Corner Missed Shot Junya Ito
85' Reims Emmanuel Agbadou 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mamadou Diakhon
86' Reims Joseph Okumu 0.28 From Corner Missed Shot Junya Ito
93' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kamory Doumbia
93' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ibrahim Salah AML 90 0 0 2 3 0.07 0.09 0.56
Soumaila Coulibaly DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kamory Doumbia AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.19
Jonas Martin DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Mama Baldé FW 86 1 0 2 0 0.45 0.00 0.48
Kenny Lala Sub 76 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.11
Romain Faivre AMR 70 1 1 1 2 0.76 0.47 0.40
Edimilson Fernandes DMC 70 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.07
Massadio Haidara DL 56 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Amavi Sub 34 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.03 0.20
Pierre Lees-Melou Sub 20 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.16
Ludovic Ajorque Sub 20 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.24
Luc Zogbe DR 14 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Mahdi Camara Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Hugo Magnetti Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Reims

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joseph Okumu DC 90 1 0 3 0 0.78 0.00 0.05
Junya Ito FWR 90 0 1 1 6 0.33 0.99 0.47
Keito Nakamura FWL 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.40
Valentin Atangana Edoa MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.18
Emmanuel Agbadou DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.52
Oumar Diakité FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.38 0.38
Sergio Akieme DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Marshall Munetsi MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aurélio Buta DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Yehvann Diouf GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Yaya Fofana MC 78 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Mamadou Diakhon Sub 12 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Amine Salama Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Nhoa Sangui Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Amadou Koné Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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