Reims v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 20
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.28
Goals − xG
+1.94 – -0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Reims win
16.7%
Draw
23.0%
Marseille win
60.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–2.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Reims 1.06 xGMarseille 1.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Reims attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 6' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 6' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 8' |
Marseille |
Quentin Merlin | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derek Cornelius |
| 14' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 20' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 28' |
 Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 37' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 39' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junya Ito |
| 41' |
Marseille |
Derek Cornelius | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 46' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Pol Lirola |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 50' |
Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Keito Nakamura |
| 59' |
Marseille |
Ismael Bennacer | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 61' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Marseille |
Geoffrey Kondogbia | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 63' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 64' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 65' |
Marseille |
Luis Henrique | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Geoffrey Kondogbia |
| 67' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hafiz Ibrahim |
| 77' |
Marseille |
Valentin Rongier | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Henrique |
| 85' |
Marseille |
Amar Dedic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 87' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 90' |
Marseille |
Ismael Bennacer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Marseille |
Neal Maupay | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ismael Bennacer |
| 96' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Adrien Rabiot AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Derek Cornelius DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.17 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Pol Lirola DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Ismael Bennacer Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Amar Dedic Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ulisses García Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Keito Nakamura FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Mory Gbane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Junya Ito MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Cédric Kipré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aurélio Buta DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Koné MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Diakhon ML | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.09 | 0.53 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| John Finn Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hiroki Sekine Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |