Reims v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 18
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.70
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -1.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Reims win
27.4%
Draw
27.0%
Toulouse win
45.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Reims 0.66 xGToulouse 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Reims attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua King |
| 16' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 20' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.44 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 31' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 38' |
 Reims |
Jordan Siebatcheu | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sergio Akieme |
| 41' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Reims |
Jordan Siebatcheu | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 44' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Magri |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 53' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Reims |
Junya Ito | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Hafiz Ibrahim |
| 62' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cédric Kipré |
| 68' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 68' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Zakaria Aboukhlal |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 90' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Junya Ito |
| 93' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
Players
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Junya Ito MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cédric Kipré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Sergio Akieme DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| Hiroki Sekine DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Aurélio Buta DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Keito Nakamura ML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| Amadou Koné MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jordan Siebatcheu FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Gabriel Moscardo Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ange Tia Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mamadou Diakhon Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malcolm Jeng Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Frank Magri AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Ümit Akdag Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Joshua King FW | 33 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Shavy Babicka Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |