Rennes v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.56 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
48.2%
Draw
23.3%
Lille win
28.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWWLWLW last 10
scored 21
from 21.9 xG
conceded 18
from 21.3 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDWWLWDD last 10
scored 12
from 13.0 xG
conceded 8
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.54 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.56 xGLille 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nathan Ngoy |
| 21' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 36' |
 Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.41 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 38' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 45' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 46' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 52' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 58' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 58' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 63' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 76' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 76' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 87' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.83 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 0.97 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| Nabil Bentaleb DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Felix Correia AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Calvin Verdonk DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Romain Perraud Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Santos Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Olivier Giroud Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Quentin Merlin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ludovic Blas MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.15 |
| Arnaud Nordin FWL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mousa Al Tamari FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mahamadou Nagida DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sebastian Szymanski Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassir Zabiri Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |