Rennes v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 9
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+0.70 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
30.4%
Draw
25.1%
Lyon win
44.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.71 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.73 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 2.30 xGLyon 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Rennes |
Przemyslaw Frankowski | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 8' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 10' |
 Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abner |
| 13' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 21' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 21' |
Rennes |
Przemyslaw Frankowski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Khalis Merah | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Khalis Merah | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 45' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Rouault |
| 50' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 52' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 61' |
Lyon |
Adam Karabec | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 61' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 64' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 67' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 67' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lyon |
Rachid Ghezzal | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 79' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.64 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Meïté |
| 79' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Remy Descamps | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 92' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Seko Fofana |
| 94' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mousa Al Tamari |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.82 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.78 |
| Ludovic Blas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.82 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.87 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.40 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 0.92 |
| Alidu Seidu Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Mohamed Meïté Sub | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| Seko Fofana Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.75 |
| Mahamadou Nagida Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| Remy Descamps GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abner DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.68 |
| Malick Fofana AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Khalis Merah FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.42 | 1.23 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Adam Karabec AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Rachid Ghezzal Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Kluivert Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |