Rennes v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Rennes

1–0

2.32 – 1.31 xG

Marseille

Shots

20 – 13

On target

7 – 5

Shots in box

13 – 8

xG per shot

0.12 – 0.10

Set-piece xG

0.02 – 0.09

Goals − xG

-1.32 – -1.31

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 7h before kick-off

Rennes win

40.4%

model 43.7%

Draw

23.0%

model 21.2%

Marseille win

36.6%

model 35.1%

402337

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 8.1%
1-1 8.1%
2-2 7.2%
1-2 7.2%
3-1 5.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	73.0%	Under 2.5	27.0%
BTTS yes	72.1%	BTTS no	27.9%
Rennes 1+	86.5%	Rennes 2+	59.5%
Marseille 1+	83.3%	Marseille 2+	53.4%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 43%

67.0% fair odds 1.49

strong signal · 9065 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Rennes (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 83%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1664 Elo against 1587.
Rennes have created 2.04 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 1.66.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Rennes average 1.91 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rennes have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 36.6% for Marseille and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.00 for Rennes and 1.79 for Marseille.

Why Rennes

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1664 Elo against 1587. Rennes have created 2.04 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 1.66. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Rennes average 1.91 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 2.00 to 1.79. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Marseille can win

Marseille have created 2.32 xG a match over their last five while Rennes have allowed 1.99. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Marseille average 1.81 xG a match.

Key players

Rennes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Esteban Lepaul (0.61), Ronaldo (0.41), Timur Suleymanov (0.35). Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59), Mason Greenwood (0.56), Amine Gouiri (0.53).

Availability

2 of Rennes's top three contributors did not start their last match. Rennes changed goalkeeper for their last match. 2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rennes: 60% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 15.5 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Marseille: 60% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Rennes are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.1%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Rennes have scored 20 from 21.3 expected and conceded 22 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLDWWWLWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.3 xG conceded 22 from 23.1 xG

Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLLLWW last 10 scored 18 from 19.4 xG conceded 14 from 21.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	442135	2.00–1.79	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	522325	2.10–1.43	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	352143	1.75–1.96	1-1 8%	72%	71%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	322146	1.65–2.00	1-1 9%	71%	70%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win	40.6%	42.9%	31.8%	1.35×	2.33
Rennes to win	37.6%	36.2%	45.6%	0.79×	2.76
Draw	21.7%	24.6%	22.8%	1.08×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & both teams score	26.5%	25.5%	15.9%	1.60×	3.93
Rennes & both teams score	24.7%	21.8%	22.0%	0.99×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.55
Marseille & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	16.1%	0.83×	7.54
Rennes & not both score	12.9%	13.3%	23.7%	0.56×	7.55
Draw & not both score	2.6%	4.9%	6.6%	0.75×	20.39

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & over 1.5	35.8%	34.7%	25.6%	1.35×	2.89
Rennes & over 1.5	33.0%	31.0%	35.7%	0.87×	3.22
Marseille & over 2.5	31.3%	31.0%	20.0%	1.55×	3.22
Rennes & over 2.5	28.8%	25.9%	28.2%	0.92×	3.85
Marseille & over 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	11.2%	1.92×	4.63
Marseille & under 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	20.7%	1.04×	4.63
Rennes & over 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.57
Rennes & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	11.2%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	6.4%	2.01×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	6.4%	2.01×	7.78
Rennes & under 2.5	8.8%	8.0%	17.5%	0.46×	12.57
Marseille & under 2.5	9.3%	8.0%	12.0%	0.66×	12.57
Rennes & under 1.5	4.6%	4.9%	10.0%	0.49×	20.57
Marseille & under 1.5	4.8%	4.9%	6.4%	0.76×	20.57
Draw & under 1.5	2.6%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.59

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1UP)	61.0%	63.1%	49.6%	1.27×	1.59
Rennes (1UP)	58.5%	58.2%	58.0%	1.00×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2UP)	40.6%	47.5%	34.2%	1.39×	2.11
Rennes (2UP)	37.6%	37.2%	47.1%	0.79×	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to win 2nd half	38.1%	36.0%	42.1%	0.85×	2.78
Marseille to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.5%	26.8%	1.29×	2.90
2nd half drawn	29.0%	26.4%	31.2%	0.85×	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	75.1%	83.3%	0.90×	1.33
Marseille over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	70.6%	49.8%	1.42×	1.42
Marseille under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	29.4%	50.2%	0.59×	3.40
Marseille over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	24.9%	16.7%	1.49×	4.02

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.6%	71.2%	61.8%	1.15×	1.41
Rennes under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.8%	71.1%	75.4%	0.94×	1.41
Rennes over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.2%	28.9%	24.6%	1.17×	3.46
Rennes under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.4%	28.8%	38.2%	0.75×	3.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (+2.5)	91.6%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Marseille (+1.5)	80.5%	82.6%	75.0%	1.10×	1.21
Marseille (+0.5)	62.4%	63.0%	54.4%	1.16×	1.59
Rennes (+0.5)	59.4%	57.0%	68.2%	0.84×	1.76
Marseille (-0.5)	40.6%	43.0%	31.8%	1.35×	2.32
Rennes (-0.5)	37.6%	37.0%	45.6%	0.81×	2.71
Rennes (-1.5)	19.5%	17.4%	25.0%	0.70×	5.74
Rennes (-2.5)	8.4%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	83.3%	81.4%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Marseille clean sheet	16.7%	18.6%	22.5%	0.83×	5.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede in 1st half	46.8%	50.7%	47.7%	1.06×	1.97
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	53.2%	49.3%	52.3%	0.94×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede in 2nd half	68.6%	66.7%	61.8%	1.08×	1.50
Marseille clean sheet in 2nd half	31.4%	33.3%	38.2%	0.87×	3.00

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.9%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Marseille over 0.5 goals	84.5%	81.3%	69.9%	1.16×	1.23
Marseille under 2.5 goals	71.3%	71.9%	84.6%	0.85×	1.39
Marseille over 1.5 goals	55.6%	58.9%	36.8%	1.60×	1.70
Marseille under 1.5 goals	44.4%	41.1%	63.2%	0.65×	2.43
Marseille over 2.5 goals	28.7%	28.1%	15.4%	1.82×	3.55
Marseille under 0.5 goals	15.5%	18.7%	30.1%	0.62×	5.34
Marseille over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.1%	6.6%	1.85×	8.26

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	80.5%	82.8%	87.2%	0.95×	1.21
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.4%	42.7%	1.46×	1.60
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.6%	57.3%	0.66×	2.66
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	19.5%	17.2%	12.8%	1.35×	5.80

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille scores more in 2nd half	40.7%	43.7%	33.1%	1.32×	2.29
Marseille scores equally in both	31.8%	34.1%	42.0%	0.81×	2.93
Marseille scores more in 1st half	27.5%	26.1%	25.1%	1.04×	3.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (away no bet)	63.4%	62.0%	66.7%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.6%	38.0%	33.3%	1.14×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	51.2%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.90
Marseille odd goals	48.8%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.6%	77.1%	83.0%	0.93×	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.4%	22.9%	17.0%	1.35×	4.37

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	79.7%	72.8%	65.5%	1.11×	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.3%	27.2%	34.5%	0.79×	3.68

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.4%	71.7%	60.2%	1.19×	1.39
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	43.1%	38.3%	28.1%	1.36×	2.61
Rennes to score 2+ in a row	40.6%	38.2%	38.1%	1.00×	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.1%	29.0%	22.6%	1.28×	3.45
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	16.3%	16.3%	9.2%	1.77×	6.14
Rennes to score 3+ in a row	14.7%	12.2%	14.0%	0.87×	8.19

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.6%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.53
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.53
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.53
2-2	7.2%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.53
Any other score	7.5%	7.4%	5.1%	1.44×	13.53
1-3	5.0%	7.4%	3.4%	2.15×	13.53
0-0	2.6%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	57.67
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	57.65
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	57.66
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	57.67
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
1-0	4.6%	1.7%	10.0%	0.17×	57.66
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
2-0	4.1%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	57.66
2-3	4.5%	1.7%	1.9%	0.93×	57.66
2-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.67
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	57.67
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	57.66
3-2	4.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	57.66
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
3-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.67
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	57.67
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	57.67
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.11×	57.67
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	57.67
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (2nd half DNB)	53.6%	53.3%	61.1%	0.87×	1.88
Marseille (2nd half DNB)	46.4%	46.7%	38.9%	1.20×	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	58.4%	58.6%	46.8%	1.25×	1.71
Rennes leading at HT (DNB)	41.6%	41.4%	53.2%	0.78×	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or Marseille (12)	78.3%	75.4%	77.2%	0.98×	1.33
Marseille or draw (X2)	62.4%	63.8%	54.4%	1.17×	1.57
Rennes or draw (1X)	59.4%	57.1%	68.2%	0.84×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw at HT	74.0%	74.3%	67.2%	1.11×	1.35
Rennes or draw at HT	63.4%	62.0%	71.1%	0.87×	1.61
Rennes or Marseille at HT	62.6%	62.0%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw (1UP)	62.4%	71.7%	62.2%	1.15×	1.39
Rennes or draw (1UP)	59.4%	62.9%	72.5%	0.87×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or Marseille in 2nd half	71.0%	73.6%	68.8%	1.07×	1.36
Rennes or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.5%	73.2%	0.90×	1.53
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	61.9%	64.0%	57.9%	1.11×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.6%	57.9%	56.8%	1.02×	1.73
Neither half drawn	44.5%	42.1%	43.2%	0.97×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (DNB)	51.9%	50.0%	41.1%	1.22×	2.00
Rennes (DNB)	48.1%	50.0%	58.9%	0.85×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score first	49.7%	45.7%	44.3%	1.03×	2.19
Rennes to score first	47.7%	45.6%	49.3%	0.92×	2.19
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	6.6%	0.65×	23.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.4%	62.7%	54.0%	1.16×	1.59
Not both teams to score	29.6%	37.3%	46.0%	0.81×	2.68

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.7%	50.1%	44.0%	1.14×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	20.7%	28.4%	35.7%	0.79×	3.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.94
Both score & under 2.5	8.6%	8.4%	10.1%	0.83×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	70.3%	79.9%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	29.7%	20.1%	15.3%	1.32×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.3%	65.9%	69.9%	0.94×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.7%	34.1%	30.1%	1.13×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	40.9%	49.7%	57.4%	0.87×	2.01
Both score 2nd half only	33.1%	26.8%	23.7%	1.13×	3.72
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	12.6%	0.85×	9.29
Both score in both halves	11.6%	10.7%	6.6%	1.63×	9.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.0%	80.0%	81.0%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.0%	20.0%	19.0%	1.05×	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.0%	66.9%	59.4%	1.13×	1.50
A half without a goal	32.0%	33.1%	40.6%	0.82×	3.02

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	41.9%	41.9%	30.7%	1.36×	2.39
2-3 goals	38.3%	35.0%	43.4%	0.81×	2.86
0-1 goals	12.1%	17.1%	22.6%	0.76×	5.84
7+ goals	7.7%	7.6%	3.6%	2.13×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score exactly 1	28.9%	27.6%	33.2%	0.83×	3.62
Marseille to score 3+	28.7%	27.6%	15.4%	1.79×	3.62
Marseille to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.6%	21.5%	1.28×	3.62
Marseille to score exactly 0	15.5%	19.5%	30.1%	0.65×	5.13

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.2%	31.8%	0.82×	3.82
Rennes to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.2%	23.1%	1.13×	3.82
Rennes to score 3+	26.6%	26.2%	22.9%	1.14×	3.82
Rennes to score exactly 0	16.7%	19.2%	22.5%	0.85×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.4%	38.0%	38.5%	0.99×	2.63
Marseille leading at HT	36.6%	38.0%	28.9%	1.32×	2.64
Rennes leading at HT	26.0%	25.7%	32.8%	0.78×	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille -1: 1	59.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Marseille -1: 2	21.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Marseille -1: X	18.8%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:1)	62.4%	61.5%	54.4%	1.13×	1.63
Rennes (0:1)	19.5%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.63
Draw (0:1)	18.1%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:2)	80.5%	83.1%	75.0%	1.11×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	10.8%	15.1%	0.72×	9.23
Rennes (0:2)	8.4%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:3)	91.6%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.9%	6.1%	0.97×	16.95
Rennes (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.33

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	0.46×	81.61
Rennes (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.6%	0.78×	81.73

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (1:0)	59.4%	58.5%	68.2%	0.86×	1.71
Marseille (1:0)	21.8%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	17.1%	15.1%	1.13×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (2:0)	78.2%	79.9%	83.2%	0.96×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	12.1%	10.4%	9.8%	1.06×	9.62
Marseille (2:0)	9.7%	6.6%	7.2%	0.91×	15.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.0%	56.6%	47.3%	1.20×	1.77
1st half highest scoring	24.7%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Halves equal	20.3%	24.0%	26.1%	0.92×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede	84.5%	80.9%	69.9%	1.16×	1.24
Rennes clean sheet	15.5%	19.1%	30.1%	0.63×	5.25

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede in 1st half	55.5%	62.4%	42.7%	1.46×	1.60
Rennes clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	37.6%	57.3%	0.66×	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede in 2nd half	65.2%	68.0%	49.8%	1.37×	1.47
Rennes clean sheet in 2nd half	34.8%	32.0%	50.2%	0.64×	3.12

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 3.5 goals	89.3%	87.2%	91.7%	0.95×	1.15
Rennes over 0.5 goals	83.3%	81.9%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Rennes under 2.5 goals	73.4%	74.3%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Rennes over 1.5 goals	53.4%	52.8%	45.9%	1.15×	1.90
Rennes under 1.5 goals	46.6%	47.2%	54.1%	0.87×	2.12
Rennes over 2.5 goals	26.6%	25.7%	22.9%	1.12×	3.89
Rennes under 0.5 goals	16.7%	18.1%	22.5%	0.80×	5.54
Rennes over 3.5 goals	10.7%	12.8%	8.3%	1.55×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.7%	87.4%	1.03×	1.11
Rennes over 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	50.8%	47.7%	1.06×	1.97
Rennes under 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	49.2%	52.3%	0.94×	2.03
Rennes over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	10.3%	12.6%	0.81×	9.75

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes scores more in 2nd half	48.5%	47.1%	40.9%	1.15×	2.12
Rennes scores equally in both	31.4%	32.8%	36.7%	0.89×	3.05
Rennes scores more in 1st half	20.1%	21.5%	22.6%	0.95×	4.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (home no bet)	65.1%	63.2%	58.3%	1.08×	1.58
Draw (home no bet)	34.9%	36.8%	41.7%	0.88×	2.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes even goals	51.4%	50.4%	51.3%	0.98×	1.98
Rennes odd goals	48.6%	49.6%	48.7%	1.02×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.7%	24.2%	28.5%	0.85×	4.13
HT 0-1	19.2%	18.7%	16.8%	1.11×	5.35
HT 1-0	15.0%	11.0%	21.1%	0.52×	9.13
HT 1-1	12.1%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.15
HT 0-2	7.8%	7.1%	5.5%	1.31×	14.02
Any other HT score	7.4%	7.1%	4.7%	1.52×	14.02
HT 1-2	4.9%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.34
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	43.36
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.42
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.59

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	25.7%	26.9%	19.3%	1.39×	3.72
Rennes at HT / Rennes at FT	19.0%	16.8%	27.5%	0.61×	5.96
Draw at HT / Rennes at FT	14.2%	12.7%	14.8%	0.86×	7.89
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	12.3%	12.7%	11.1%	1.14×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.8%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	6.5%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.69
Rennes at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.75
Marseille at HT / Rennes at FT	4.4%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.75
Rennes at HT / Marseille at FT	2.7%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.82

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score last	49.7%	46.9%	40.4%	1.16×	2.13
Rennes to score last	47.7%	46.7%	53.2%	0.88×	2.14
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	6.6%	0.65×	23.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.4%	95.7%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	61.0%	61.3%	49.6%	1.24×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.6%	55.1%	51.3%	1.07×	1.81
Rennes to lead by 1 at any time	58.5%	55.1%	58.0%	0.95×	1.81
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	30.9%	29.3%	22.0%	1.33×	3.41
Rennes to lead by 2 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	29.5%	0.87×	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.6%	19.6%	20.1%	0.98×	5.09
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	8.4%	1.24×	9.55
Rennes to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	11.9%	0.88×	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.1%	83.3%	85.0%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.3%	73.9%	1.13×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.6%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	67.0%	68.8%	76.4%	0.90×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.9%	63.2%	50.9%	1.24×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.6%	59.3%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.3%	53.4%	45.9%	1.16×	1.87
1-3 goals	47.8%	48.5%	59.4%	0.82×	2.06
4-6 goals	41.9%	43.6%	30.7%	1.42×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.30
2-3 goals	38.3%	39.3%	43.4%	0.91×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.3%	35.3%	25.7%	1.37×	2.83
1-2 goals	26.8%	30.6%	39.3%	0.78×	3.27
5-6 goals	22.6%	24.8%	13.7%	1.81×	4.04
7+ goals	7.7%	9.0%	3.6%	2.50×	11.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille never behind	38.9%	44.8%	42.0%	1.07×	2.24
Rennes never behind	36.4%	44.6%	50.4%	0.89×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	51.0%	47.3%	1.08×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.0%	52.7%	0.93×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.4%	95.4%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.9%	87.5%	77.4%	1.13×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.7%	82.2%	91.4%	0.90×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	54.3%	1.33×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	69.6%	66.0%	82.8%	0.80×	1.52
Under 3.5 goals	50.4%	53.0%	65.8%	0.81×	1.89
Over 3.5 goals	49.6%	47.0%	34.2%	1.38×	2.13
Over 4.5 goals	30.4%	34.0%	17.2%	1.98×	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	29.3%	27.6%	45.7%	0.60×	3.62
Over 5.5 goals	16.3%	17.8%	8.6%	2.08×	5.61
Under 1.5 goals	12.1%	12.5%	22.6%	0.55×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	2.6%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.5%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.4%	86.6%	70.6%	1.23×	1.16
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	81.0%	80.5%	90.6%	0.89×	1.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.8%	61.6%	42.8%	1.44×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	62.4%	61.6%	79.3%	0.78×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	37.6%	38.4%	20.7%	1.86×	2.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.2%	38.4%	57.2%	0.67×	2.61
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.0%	19.5%	9.4%	2.08×	5.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.6%	13.4%	29.4%	0.46×	7.46
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.5%	7.6%	3.8%	2.01×	13.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	86.2%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.3%	78.8%	71.5%	1.10×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.8%	62.7%	66.1%	0.95×	1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.2%	37.3%	33.9%	1.10×	2.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.7%	21.2%	28.5%	0.74×	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.1%	85.5%	81.4%	1.05×	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	61.8%	48.7%	1.27×	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	61.6%	75.4%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	38.4%	24.6%	1.56×	2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	38.2%	51.3%	0.74×	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	10.9%	14.5%	18.6%	0.78×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to score in both halves	67.9%	70.5%	68.0%	1.04×	1.42
Marseille not to score in both halves	63.8%	63.5%	77.4%	0.82×	1.57
Marseille to score in both halves	36.2%	36.5%	22.6%	1.61×	2.74
Rennes to score in both halves	32.1%	29.5%	32.0%	0.92×	3.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.4%	66.2%	54.0%	1.23×	1.51
Only Marseille scores	14.1%	11.1%	16.1%	0.69×	9.01
Only Rennes scores	12.9%	11.1%	23.7%	0.47×	9.01
Neither team scores	2.6%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.4%	20.3%	1.11×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.2%	17.6%	17.2%	1.02×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	17.3%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.70
6 or more goals	16.3%	17.5%	8.6%	2.04×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	14.1%	12.1%	8.7%	1.38×	8.30
Exactly 1 goals	9.5%	7.8%	16.2%	0.48×	12.85
Exactly 0 goals	2.6%	4.5%	6.6%	0.69×	22.25

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.1%	35.9%	37.8%	0.95×	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	24.6%	21.7%	21.2%	1.02×	4.60
No goals in 1st half	23.7%	21.7%	28.5%	0.76×	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.3%	12.8%	1.19×	6.56

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	64.8%	58.8%	48.7%	1.21×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	24.2%	23.1%	32.9%	0.70×	4.32
No goals in 2nd half	10.9%	14.3%	18.6%	0.77×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win both halves	90.1%	93.9%	83.3%	1.13×	1.07
Marseille not to win both halves	88.0%	87.9%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Marseille to win both halves	12.0%	12.1%	9.4%	1.29×	8.29
Rennes to win both halves	9.9%	6.1%	16.7%	0.36×	16.42

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win either half	57.5%	59.5%	46.3%	1.28×	1.68
Rennes to win either half	54.2%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Rennes to win neither half	45.8%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22
Marseille to win neither half	42.5%	40.5%	53.7%	0.75×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win to nil	87.1%	87.9%	76.3%	1.15×	1.14
Marseille not to win to nil	85.9%	87.9%	83.9%	1.05×	1.14
Marseille to win to nil	14.1%	12.1%	16.1%	0.75×	8.28
Rennes to win to nil	12.9%	12.1%	23.7%	0.51×	8.29

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.7%	24.2%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Marseille by 1	18.8%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.92
Rennes by 1	18.1%	16.9%	20.7%	0.81×	5.92
Marseille by 2	12.1%	11.7%	9.8%	1.19×	8.53
Rennes by 2	11.2%	11.7%	15.1%	0.77×	8.53
Marseille by 3+	9.7%	7.3%	7.2%	1.01×	13.76
Rennes by 3+	8.4%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.76

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Rennes 2.32 xGMarseille 1.31 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rennes attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
8'	Marseille	Emerson	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Amine Gouiri
10'	Marseille	Igor Paixão	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Timothy Weah
19'	Rennes	Valentin Rongier	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Esteban Lepaul
23'	Marseille	Amine Gouiri	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Igor Paixão
24'	Rennes	Issa Soumaré	0.37	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	—
28'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Himad Abdelli
29'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Adrien Thomasson
31'	Marseille	Amine Gouiri	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Emerson
31'	Marseille	Timothy Weah	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
34'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Angel Gomes
35'	Rennes	Przemyslaw Frankowski	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Esteban Lepaul
41'	Rennes	Issa Soumaré	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Adrien Thomasson
43'	Rennes	Valentin Rongier	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
45'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Valentin Rongier
50'	Marseille	Amine Harit	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
50'	Marseille	Angel Gomes	0.39	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
51'	Rennes	Adrien Thomasson	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
51'	Rennes	Mousa Al Tamari	0.05	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Ludovic Blas
52'	Rennes	Adrien Thomasson	0.56	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
55'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.08	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Przemyslaw Frankowski
57'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.41	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Amine Gouiri
58'	Rennes	Mousa Al Tamari	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mahdi Camara
61'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.07	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Mahamadou Nagida
63'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mahdi Camara
67'	Rennes	Mousa Al Tamari	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Valentin Rongier
70'	Rennes	Mahdi Camara	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
71'	Marseille	Amine Harit	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Igor Paixão
71'	Rennes	Adrien Thomasson	0.47	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Mousa Al Tamari
72'	Marseille	Igor Paixão	0.09	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Emerson
76'	Rennes	Mahdi Camara	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Adrien Thomasson
86'	Rennes	Boulaye Dia	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Sebastian Szymanski
89'	Rennes	Eliezer Mayenda	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Boulaye Dia
92'	Marseille	Derek Cornelius	0.06	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Amine Harit

Players

Marseille

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC	90	3	1	0.50	0.07	0.66
Amine Harit MR	90	2	1	0.09	0.06	1.12
Emerson DL	90	1	2	0.02	0.11	0.57
Timothy Weah DR	90	1	1	0.01	0.05	0.46
CJ Egan-Riley DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.46
Jeffrey de Lange GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.46
Igor Paixão ML	89	2	2	0.14	0.10	0.65
Amine Gouiri FW	89	2	2	0.09	0.43	0.61
Naif Aguerd DC	89	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.54
Himad Abdelli MC	79	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.53
Angel Gomes MC	66	1	1	0.39	0.08	1.01
Keyliane Abdallah Sub	24	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Neal Maupay Sub	11	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Derek Cornelius Sub	1	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.00
Faris Moumbagna Sub	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tadjidine Mmadi Sub	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Rennes

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Adrien Thomasson MC	90	1	3	3	1.11	0.06	1.32
Mahdi Camara MC	90	0	2	2	0.09	0.14	0.45
Valentin Rongier DMC	90	0	2	2	0.08	0.08	0.36
Mahamadou Nagida DL	90	0	0	1	0.00	0.07	0.31
Anthony Rouault DC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.21
Charlie Cresswell DC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Brice Samba GK	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Esteban Lepaul FW	79	0	2	2	0.15	0.09	0.30
Ludovic Blas MR	79	0	3	1	0.12	0.05	0.31
Przemyslaw Frankowski DR	69	0	1	1	0.06	0.08	0.25
Issa Soumaré ML	47	0	2	0	0.39	0.00	0.45
Mousa Al Tamari Sub	40	0	3	1	0.17	0.47	1.36
Bryan Reynolds Sub	21	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Boulaye Dia Sub	11	0	1	1	0.07	0.08	0.15
Sebastian Szymanski Sub	11	0	0	1	0.00	0.07	0.07
Eliezer Mayenda Sub	3	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.08

Rennes v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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