Rennes v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Rennes

14:45

Marseille

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 131h before kick-off

Rennes win

39.0%

model 39.0%

Draw

21.9%

model 22.1%

Marseille win

39.0%

model 38.9%

392239

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.1%
2-1 8.0%
1-2 8.0%
2-2 7.1%
1-0 5.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.6%	Under 2.5	31.4%
BTTS yes	68.8%	BTTS no	31.2%
Rennes 1+	83.0%	Rennes 2+	52.8%
Marseille 1+	82.9%	Marseille 2+	52.8%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 43%

62.7% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 684 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 88%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1603.
Rennes have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 1.48.
At home Rennes average 1.91 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rennes have an estimated 39.0% win probability, against 39.0% for Marseille and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.77 for Rennes and 1.77 for Marseille.

Why Rennes

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1603. Rennes have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 1.48. At home Rennes average 1.91 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.77 to 1.77. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Marseille can win

Marseille have created 2.25 xG a match over their last five while Rennes have allowed 1.84. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Marseille average 1.81 xG a match.

Key players

Rennes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Esteban Lepaul (0.58), Ronaldo (0.41), Timur Suleymanov (0.35). Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59), Mason Greenwood (0.56), Amine Gouiri (0.50).

Availability

2 of Rennes's top three contributors did not start their last match. Rennes changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Rennes's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rennes: 64% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces. Marseille: 61% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rennes are the model's most likely outcome at 39.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.1%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWWWLWLDW last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 15 from 18.4 xG

Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLWLDLWWWL last 10 scored 14 from 22.5 xG conceded 14 from 14.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392239	1.77–1.77	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332245	1.66–1.94	1-1 9%	70%	69%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win	40.6%	43.0%	31.3%	1.37×	2.33
Rennes to win	37.6%	36.4%	46.0%	0.79×	2.74
Draw	21.7%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & both teams score	26.5%	25.2%	15.4%	1.63×	3.97
Rennes & both teams score	24.7%	21.9%	22.2%	0.99×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Marseille & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	16.1%	0.82×	7.55
Rennes & not both score	12.9%	13.2%	23.9%	0.55×	7.55
Draw & not both score	2.6%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & over 1.5	35.8%	34.9%	25.2%	1.39×	2.86
Rennes & over 1.5	33.0%	30.9%	36.1%	0.86×	3.24
Marseille & over 2.5	31.3%	30.9%	19.5%	1.58×	3.24
Rennes & over 2.5	28.8%	26.0%	28.5%	0.91×	3.84
Marseille & over 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	11.0%	1.96×	4.62
Marseille & under 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	20.5%	1.06×	4.62
Rennes & over 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Rennes & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	29.1%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & over 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	6.5%	1.99×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	11.2%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	6.5%	1.99×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.78
Rennes & under 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	17.6%	0.45×	12.69
Marseille & under 2.5	9.3%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.69
Rennes & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	10.1%	0.47×	20.93
Marseille & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1UP)	61.0%	63.0%	49.1%	1.28×	1.59
Rennes (1UP)	58.5%	58.1%	58.4%	0.99×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2UP)	40.6%	47.5%	33.7%	1.41×	2.11
Rennes (2UP)	37.6%	37.0%	47.6%	0.78×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to win 2nd half	38.1%	36.1%	42.5%	0.85×	2.77
Marseille to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.5%	26.8%	1.29×	2.90
2nd half drawn	29.0%	26.3%	30.9%	0.85×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (+2.5)	91.6%	92.1%	89.9%	1.02×	1.09
Marseille (+1.5)	80.5%	82.4%	74.8%	1.10×	1.21
Marseille (+0.5)	62.4%	62.9%	54.0%	1.16×	1.59
Rennes (+0.5)	59.4%	57.0%	68.7%	0.83×	1.75
Marseille (-0.5)	40.6%	43.0%	31.3%	1.37×	2.33
Rennes (-0.5)	37.6%	37.1%	46.0%	0.81×	2.69
Rennes (-1.5)	19.5%	17.6%	25.2%	0.70×	5.68
Rennes (-2.5)	8.4%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	83.3%	81.3%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Marseille clean sheet	16.7%	18.7%	22.5%	0.83×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede in 1st half	46.8%	50.9%	47.6%	1.07×	1.97
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	53.2%	49.1%	52.4%	0.94×	2.04

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.9%	93.5%	0.94×	1.14
Marseille over 0.5 goals	84.5%	81.5%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Marseille under 2.5 goals	71.3%	71.9%	84.7%	0.85×	1.39
Marseille over 1.5 goals	55.6%	59.6%	36.5%	1.63×	1.68
Marseille under 1.5 goals	44.4%	40.4%	63.5%	0.64×	2.48
Marseille over 2.5 goals	28.7%	28.1%	15.3%	1.84×	3.56
Marseille under 0.5 goals	15.5%	18.5%	30.4%	0.61×	5.40
Marseille over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.1%	6.5%	1.88×	8.26

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	80.5%	83.2%	87.6%	0.95×	1.20
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.8%	42.4%	1.48×	1.59
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.2%	57.6%	0.65×	2.69
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	19.5%	16.8%	12.4%	1.35×	5.94

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (away no bet)	63.4%	62.1%	66.8%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.6%	37.9%	33.2%	1.14×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	51.2%	52.7%	56.4%	0.94×	1.90
Marseille odd goals	48.8%	47.3%	43.6%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.6%	77.2%	83.2%	0.93×	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.4%	22.8%	16.9%	1.35×	4.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	79.7%	72.9%	65.4%	1.12×	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.3%	27.1%	34.6%	0.78×	3.70

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.4%	71.6%	60.3%	1.19×	1.40
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	43.1%	38.3%	27.9%	1.37×	2.61
Rennes to score 2+ in a row	40.6%	38.1%	38.4%	0.99×	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.1%	28.4%	22.7%	1.25×	3.52
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	16.3%	16.4%	9.1%	1.79×	6.10
Rennes to score 3+ in a row	14.7%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.29

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.6%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.46
2-2	7.2%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.46
Any other score	7.5%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.46
1-3	5.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.46
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.56
1-0	4.6%	1.7%	10.1%	0.17×	58.57
0-0	2.6%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.58
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.57
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.58
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.59
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
2-0	4.1%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.57
2-3	4.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.57
2-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.58
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.58
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.57
3-2	4.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.57
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
3-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.59
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.59
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.83×	58.58
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	58.4%	57.7%	46.3%	1.25×	1.73
Rennes leading at HT (DNB)	41.6%	42.3%	53.7%	0.79×	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or Marseille (12)	78.3%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Marseille or draw (X2)	62.4%	63.6%	54.0%	1.18×	1.57
Rennes or draw (1X)	59.4%	57.0%	68.7%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw at HT	74.0%	74.7%	66.9%	1.12×	1.34
Rennes or draw at HT	63.4%	62.2%	71.5%	0.87×	1.61
Rennes or Marseille at HT	62.6%	62.2%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw (1UP)	62.4%	71.3%	61.9%	1.15×	1.40
Rennes or draw (1UP)	59.4%	62.8%	72.9%	0.86×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or Marseille in 2nd half	71.0%	73.7%	69.1%	1.07×	1.36
Rennes or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.5%	73.2%	0.90×	1.53
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	61.9%	63.9%	57.5%	1.11×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.6%	58.2%	56.5%	1.03×	1.72
Neither half drawn	44.5%	41.8%	43.5%	0.96×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (DNB)	51.9%	50.9%	40.5%	1.26×	1.96
Rennes (DNB)	48.1%	49.1%	59.5%	0.83×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score first	49.7%	45.7%	43.9%	1.04×	2.19
Rennes to score first	47.7%	45.6%	49.6%	0.92×	2.19
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	6.6%	0.65×	23.17

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.4%	62.2%	53.7%	1.16×	1.61
Not both teams to score	29.6%	37.8%	46.3%	0.82×	2.65

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.7%	50.0%	43.8%	1.14×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	20.7%	27.7%	35.9%	0.77×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.96
Both score & under 2.5	8.6%	8.4%	10.1%	0.83×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	70.3%	80.4%	84.9%	0.95×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	29.7%	19.6%	15.1%	1.30×	5.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.3%	66.2%	70.1%	0.94×	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.7%	33.8%	29.9%	1.13×	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	40.9%	49.7%	57.8%	0.86×	2.01
Both score 2nd half only	33.1%	27.6%	23.8%	1.16×	3.62
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.5%	12.4%	0.85×	9.50
Both score in both halves	11.6%	10.5%	6.3%	1.66×	9.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.0%	80.1%	81.4%	0.98×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.0%	19.9%	18.6%	1.07×	5.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.0%	66.8%	59.5%	1.12×	1.50
A half without a goal	32.0%	33.2%	40.5%	0.82×	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	41.9%	42.1%	30.9%	1.36×	2.37
2-3 goals	38.3%	35.0%	43.3%	0.81×	2.86
0-1 goals	12.1%	16.9%	22.7%	0.75×	5.91
7+ goals	7.7%	7.6%	3.5%	2.20×	13.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score exactly 1	28.9%	27.4%	33.2%	0.82×	3.65
Marseille to score 3+	28.7%	27.4%	15.3%	1.79×	3.65
Marseille to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.4%	21.4%	1.28×	3.65
Marseille to score exactly 0	15.5%	19.5%	30.4%	0.64×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.5%	31.7%	0.84×	3.77
Rennes to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	23.0%	1.15×	3.77
Rennes to score 3+	26.6%	26.5%	23.2%	1.14×	3.77
Rennes to score exactly 0	16.7%	18.9%	22.5%	0.84×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.4%	37.8%	38.6%	0.98×	2.65
Marseille leading at HT	36.6%	37.8%	28.5%	1.33×	2.65
Rennes leading at HT	26.0%	25.3%	33.1%	0.76×	3.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille -1: 1	59.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Marseille -1: 2	21.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Marseille -1: X	18.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:1)	62.4%	61.3%	54.0%	1.14×	1.63
Rennes (0:1)	19.5%	17.8%	25.2%	0.71×	5.62
Draw (0:1)	18.1%	17.8%	20.9%	0.85×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:2)	80.5%	82.7%	74.8%	1.11×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	15.3%	0.72×	9.09
Rennes (0:2)	8.4%	7.7%	10.1%	0.77×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:3)	91.6%	92.6%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	6.1%	0.94×	17.27
Rennes (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.23
Rennes (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.6%	0.76×	83.37

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (1:0)	59.4%	58.2%	68.7%	0.85×	1.72
Marseille (1:0)	21.8%	21.7%	16.9%	1.29×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	17.0%	14.6%	1.16×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (2:0)	78.2%	80.4%	83.2%	0.97×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.1%	10.4%	9.9%	1.05×	9.62
Marseille (2:0)	9.7%	6.5%	7.1%	0.91×	15.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.0%	57.5%	47.2%	1.22×	1.74
1st half highest scoring	24.7%	24.3%	26.6%	0.91×	4.12
Halves equal	20.3%	24.2%	26.3%	0.92×	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede	84.5%	80.9%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Rennes clean sheet	15.5%	19.1%	30.4%	0.63×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede in 1st half	55.5%	62.8%	42.4%	1.48×	1.59
Rennes clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	37.2%	57.6%	0.65×	2.69

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 3.5 goals	89.3%	87.2%	91.7%	0.95×	1.15
Rennes over 0.5 goals	83.3%	82.2%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Rennes under 2.5 goals	73.4%	74.2%	76.9%	0.97×	1.35
Rennes over 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.3%	46.0%	1.16×	1.88
Rennes under 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.7%	54.0%	0.86×	2.14
Rennes over 2.5 goals	26.6%	25.8%	23.2%	1.11×	3.88
Rennes under 0.5 goals	16.7%	17.9%	22.5%	0.79×	5.60
Rennes over 3.5 goals	10.7%	12.8%	8.3%	1.53×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.9%	87.2%	1.03×	1.11
Rennes over 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	51.0%	47.6%	1.07×	1.96
Rennes under 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	49.1%	52.4%	0.94×	2.04
Rennes over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	10.1%	12.8%	0.79×	9.91

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (home no bet)	65.1%	63.7%	57.8%	1.10×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	34.9%	36.3%	42.2%	0.86×	2.76

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes even goals	51.4%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Rennes odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.7%	24.3%	28.7%	0.85×	4.12
HT 0-1	19.2%	18.9%	16.9%	1.12×	5.29
HT 1-0	15.0%	11.1%	21.3%	0.52×	9.02
HT 1-1	12.1%	11.1%	9.4%	1.17×	9.05
HT 0-2	7.8%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.10
Any other HT score	7.4%	7.1%	4.7%	1.50×	14.10
HT 1-2	4.9%	2.2%	4.1%	0.55×	44.55
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.2%	6.6%	0.34×	44.57
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.2%	3.3%	0.68×	44.64
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.2%	0.8%	2.83×	44.82

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	25.7%	26.5%	18.9%	1.40×	3.77
Rennes at HT / Rennes at FT	19.0%	16.8%	27.7%	0.61×	5.94
Draw at HT / Rennes at FT	14.2%	12.7%	15.0%	0.85×	7.88
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	12.3%	12.7%	11.0%	1.15×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.8%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	6.5%	6.0%	6.3%	0.96×	16.60
Rennes at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.4%	3.9%	0.87×	29.11
Marseille at HT / Rennes at FT	4.4%	3.4%	3.6%	0.95×	29.11
Rennes at HT / Marseille at FT	2.7%	3.4%	1.7%	1.98×	29.18

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score last	49.7%	47.0%	40.5%	1.16×	2.13
Rennes to score last	47.7%	46.9%	53.1%	0.88×	2.13
No goal scored	2.6%	4.3%	6.6%	0.65×	23.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.4%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	61.0%	61.4%	49.1%	1.25×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.6%	55.1%	51.3%	1.07×	1.82
Rennes to lead by 1 at any time	58.5%	55.1%	58.4%	0.94×	1.82
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	30.9%	29.4%	21.7%	1.35×	3.40
Rennes to lead by 2 at any time	28.5%	25.2%	29.8%	0.85×	3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.6%	19.7%	20.2%	0.98×	5.09
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	8.3%	1.25×	9.55
Rennes to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	12.0%	0.87×	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.1%	83.5%	85.0%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.5%	74.0%	1.13×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	67.0%	69.0%	76.5%	0.90×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.9%	63.5%	50.9%	1.25×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.6%	59.2%	60.5%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.3%	53.2%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
1-3 goals	47.8%	48.7%	59.4%	0.82×	2.06
4-6 goals	41.9%	43.6%	30.9%	1.41×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.29
2-3 goals	38.3%	39.2%	43.3%	0.90×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.3%	35.4%	25.8%	1.37×	2.83
1-2 goals	26.8%	30.2%	39.4%	0.77×	3.31
5-6 goals	22.6%	24.4%	13.7%	1.78×	4.09
7+ goals	7.7%	8.7%	3.5%	2.52×	11.44

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille never behind	38.9%	44.9%	41.6%	1.08×	2.23
Rennes never behind	36.4%	44.8%	50.9%	0.88×	2.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	52.9%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.5%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.5%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.6%	52.0%	49.3%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.4%	48.0%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.4%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.9%	87.7%	77.3%	1.13×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.7%	82.4%	91.5%	0.90×	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	70.7%	72.5%	54.2%	1.34×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	69.6%	66.3%	83.0%	0.80×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	50.4%	52.4%	65.8%	0.80×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	49.6%	47.6%	34.2%	1.39×	2.10
Over 4.5 goals	30.4%	33.7%	17.0%	1.98×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	29.3%	27.5%	45.8%	0.60×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	16.3%	17.6%	8.5%	2.07×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	12.1%	12.3%	22.7%	0.54×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	2.6%	4.5%	6.6%	0.68×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.5%	92.5%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.4%	86.7%	70.5%	1.23×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	81.0%	81.1%	90.7%	0.89×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.8%	62.1%	42.7%	1.45×	1.61
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	62.4%	62.1%	79.5%	0.78×	1.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	37.6%	37.9%	20.5%	1.84×	2.64
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.2%	37.9%	57.3%	0.66×	2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.0%	18.9%	9.3%	2.03×	5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.6%	13.3%	29.5%	0.45×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.5%	7.5%	3.6%	2.07×	13.25

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	86.4%	87.6%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.3%	78.6%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.8%	63.9%	66.5%	0.96×	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.2%	36.1%	33.5%	1.08×	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.7%	21.4%	28.7%	0.75×	4.68
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	13.6%	12.4%	1.09×	7.37

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	89.1%	85.5%	81.6%	1.05×	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	62.0%	48.7%	1.27×	1.61
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	61.8%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	38.2%	24.7%	1.54×	2.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	38.0%	51.3%	0.74×	2.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	10.9%	14.5%	18.4%	0.79×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to score in both halves	67.9%	70.1%	68.0%	1.03×	1.43
Marseille not to score in both halves	63.8%	63.6%	77.6%	0.82×	1.57
Marseille to score in both halves	36.2%	36.4%	22.4%	1.63×	2.74
Rennes to score in both halves	32.1%	29.9%	32.0%	0.94×	3.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.4%	66.0%	53.7%	1.23×	1.52
Only Marseille scores	14.1%	11.0%	16.1%	0.68×	9.13
Only Rennes scores	12.9%	10.9%	23.9%	0.46×	9.14
Neither team scores	2.6%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.78

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.2%	17.5%	17.3%	1.01×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	17.3%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
6 or more goals	16.3%	17.4%	8.5%	2.05×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.1%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.29
Exactly 1 goals	9.5%	7.6%	16.2%	0.47×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.6%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	64.8%	59.0%	48.7%	1.21×	1.69
1 goal in 2nd half	24.2%	23.6%	33.1%	0.71×	4.25
No goals in 2nd half	10.9%	14.4%	18.4%	0.78×	6.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win both halves	90.1%	93.9%	83.2%	1.13×	1.07
Marseille not to win both halves	88.0%	88.1%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Marseille to win both halves	12.0%	11.9%	9.3%	1.28×	8.39
Rennes to win both halves	9.9%	6.1%	16.9%	0.36×	16.39

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win either half	57.5%	59.4%	46.0%	1.29×	1.68
Rennes to win either half	54.2%	54.8%	58.7%	0.93×	1.82
Rennes to win neither half	45.8%	45.2%	41.3%	1.10×	2.21
Marseille to win neither half	42.5%	40.6%	54.0%	0.75×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win to nil	87.1%	88.2%	76.1%	1.16×	1.13
Marseille not to win to nil	85.9%	88.2%	83.9%	1.05×	1.13
Marseille to win to nil	14.1%	11.8%	16.1%	0.74×	8.47
Rennes to win to nil	12.9%	11.8%	23.9%	0.49×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.7%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Marseille by 1	18.8%	16.9%	14.6%	1.16×	5.90
Rennes by 1	18.1%	16.9%	20.9%	0.81×	5.90
Marseille by 2	12.1%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.46
Rennes by 2	11.2%	11.8%	15.3%	0.77×	8.47
Marseille by 3+	9.7%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.79
Rennes by 3+	8.4%	7.2%	10.1%	0.72×	13.80