Rennes v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 7
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-1.71 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
68.5%
Draw
17.9%
Metz win
13.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.25–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–0.93 | 2-0 11% | 58% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.71 xGMetz 0.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bouna Sarr |
| 9' |
 Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 10' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 11' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 12' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 15' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 25' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.42 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 27' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 32' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 37' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 41' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnaud Nordin |
| 44' |
Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 59' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 60' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 60' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 65' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Gbamin |
| 67' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Rouault |
| 71' |
Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 74' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bouna Sarr |
| 75' |
Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 76' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 78' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 81' |
Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mahamadou Nagida |
| 86' |
Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Believe Munongo |
| 92' |
Rennes |
Yassir Zabiri | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 93' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.40 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Quentin Merlin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Ludovic Blas FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Arnaud Nordin FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Sebastian Szymanski MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Djaoui Cissé Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Mahamadou Nagida Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yassir Zabiri Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouna Sarr AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alpha Touré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Maxime Colin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pape Sy GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Jessy Deminguet AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Believe Munongo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Mbala Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |