Rennes v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 18 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 4
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
1.61 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
52.0%
Draw
24.2%
Nantes win
23.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 2.53 xGNantes 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 2' |
 Nantes |
Jean-Charles Castelletto | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sorba Thomas |
| 10' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sorba Thomas |
| 12' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 22' |
Rennes |
Adrien Truffert | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 26' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 51' |
Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 53' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Louis Leroux |
| 57' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 60' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Douglas Augusto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Goal | Adrien Truffert |
| 90' |
Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kazeem Olaigbe |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Azor Matusiwa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| Adrien Truffert DML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.06 | 0.66 | 0.29 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mousa Al Tamari FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Seko Fofana MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Mohamed Meïté Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kazeem Olaigbe Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Jean-Charles Castelletto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Douglas Augusto MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Kelvin Adou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Nicolas Cozza DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Nathan Zeze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Patrik Carlgren Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sorba Thomas DMR | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Marcus Coco Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Johann Lepenant Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bahereba Guirassy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tinotenda Kadewere Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |