Rennes v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.46 – -0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
56.2%
Draw
22.7%
Paris FC win
21.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWLWDWW last 10
scored 21
from 22.2 xG
conceded 9
from 11.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.93–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–1.30 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.54 xGParis FC 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamari Traore |
| 5' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 11' |
 Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 15' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 26' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Rennes |
Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 27' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 33' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Willem Geubbels |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 41' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 45' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 45' |
Paris FC |
Maxime Lopez | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alimami Gory |
| 48' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Koleosho |
| 49' |
Paris FC |
Maxime Lopez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 52' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 58' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mahamadou Nagida |
| 73' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | Quentin Merlin |
| 74' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arnaud Nordin |
| 83' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 85' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Ikone |
| 87' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rudy Matondo |
| 90' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Paris FC |
Ciro Immobile | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adama Camara |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mousa Al Tamari FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.31 |
| Quentin Merlin DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.66 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.71 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Mahamadou Nagida DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Sebastian Szymanski MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.66 |
| Ludovic Blas FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Alidu Seidu Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djaoui Cissé Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Koleosho AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.82 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rudy Matondo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| Alimami Gory AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Hamari Traore DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Ilan Kebbal AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Maxime Lopez Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Ciro Immobile Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Adama Camara Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| Jonathan Ikone Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |