Rennes v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 19
On target
3 – 9
Shots in box
11 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.62 – 0.39
Goals − xG
-1.11 – +0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
18.0%
Draw
25.6%
Paris Saint Germain win
56.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 2.11 xGParis Saint Germain 3.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 26' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.39 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Désiré Doué |
| 26' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 26' |
 Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 29' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 37' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 40' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bradley Barcola |
| 51' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 52' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
| 54' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 56' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Ismaël Koné | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 65' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 72' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 78' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Meïté |
| 84' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 86' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 90' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Achraf Hakimi |
| 91' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 91' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 93' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 97' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Désiré Doué MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.69 | 1.42 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| Beraldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 76 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| João Neves MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 24 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.19 | 0.07 | 1.27 |
| Vitinha Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.62 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| Achraf Hakimi Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| Adrien Truffert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ludovic Blas AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.57 |
| Mohamed Meïté FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.09 | 0.77 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jordan James MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Azor Matusiwa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seko Fofana Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kyogo Furuhashi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |