Rennes v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 13 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 22
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 18
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+1.20 – -3.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
25.2%
Draw
18.7%
Paris Saint Germain win
56.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–2.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.09–2.41 | 1-2 10% | 68% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.80 xGParis Saint Germain 4.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lilian Brassier |
| 11' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 11' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Rouault |
| 13' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 23' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matvey Safonov |
| 31' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 33' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 45' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Mahamadou Nagida | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 61' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Rouault |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Goal | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 70' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matvey Safonov |
| 78' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 79' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 80' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.96 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ludovic Blas |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 91' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 94' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 1.41 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| Nuno Mendes DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.74 | 0.41 | 1.59 |
| João Neves MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.15 | 1.73 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.76 | 1.48 |
| Bradley Barcola Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.16 | 0.80 |
| Lee Kang-In Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.13 | 0.95 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Merlin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mousa Al Tamari AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mahamadou Nagida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mahdi Camara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Valentin Rongier DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sebastian Szymanski AMC | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Nordin AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Djaoui Cissé Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Elias Legendre Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |