Riga FC v BFC Daugavpils — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000047 · 2627
FIFA:2000000047 results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | Under 2.5 | 51.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | BTTS no | 47.5% |
| Riga FC 1+ | 76.2% | Riga FC 2+ | 42.0% |
| BFC Daugavpils 1+ | 69.0% | BFC Daugavpils 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Riga FC have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while BFC Daugavpils have allowed 1.35.
- At home Riga FC average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Riga FC have only 0 matches on record.
- BFC Daugavpils have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Riga FC have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 30.8% for BFC Daugavpils and 26.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Riga FC and 1.17 for BFC Daugavpils.
Why Riga FC
Riga FC have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while BFC Daugavpils have allowed 1.35. At home Riga FC average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.1%.
Why BFC Daugavpils can win
BFC Daugavpils have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Riga FC have allowed 1.35. Away from home BFC Daugavpils average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Riga FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for BFC Daugavpils, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Riga FC: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. BFC Daugavpils: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Riga FC are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.54–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.