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Rijeka v Hajduk Split — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · CRO-HNL · 2627

CRO-HNL results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rijeka win
41.5%
model 43.5%
Draw
31.4%
model 30.8%
Hajduk Split win
27.1%
model 25.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,392 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.8%
  2. 0-0 9.9%
  3. 2-1 9.1%
  4. 1-0 8.6%
  5. 2-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.548.1% Under 2.551.9%
BTTS yes54.3% BTTS no45.7%
Rijeka 1+77.4% Rijeka 2+43.8%
Hajduk Split 1+67.0% Hajduk Split 2+30.4%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
82%
★ Best pick
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 61%
67.1% fair odds 1.49
moderate signal · 9051 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1603 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.82).
  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Rijeka have only 1 matches on record.
  • Hajduk Split have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rijeka have an estimated 41.5% win probability, against 31.4% for the draw and 27.1% for Hajduk Split. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for Rijeka and 1.11 for Hajduk Split.

Why Rijeka

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.4%.

Why Hajduk Split can win

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rijeka, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Hajduk Split, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rijeka: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hajduk Split: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Rijeka are the model's most likely outcome at 41.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.8%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.49–1.11 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.54–1.71 1-2 9% 63% 62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka to win 41.7% 42.9% 47.4% 0.91× 2.33
Draw 31.6% 30.6% 26.1% 1.17× 3.27
Hajduk Split to win 26.8% 27.7% 27.0% 1.02× 3.61
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka & not both score 22.7% 21.8% 26.1% 0.83× 4.60
Draw & both teams score 20.9% 21.7% 18.5% 1.18× 4.60
Rijeka & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 21.8% 0.83× 5.55
Hajduk Split & not both score 13.7% 13.2% 14.2% 0.93× 7.55
Hajduk Split & both teams score 13.1% 13.2% 13.3% 1.00× 7.55
Draw & not both score 10.6% 13.2% 8.1% 1.64× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka & over 1.5 32.7% 31.0% 39.3% 0.79× 3.22
Rijeka & under 3.5 29.8% 25.9% 33.2% 0.78× 3.86
Draw & under 2.5 25.7% 25.9% 19.4% 1.33× 3.86
Draw & under 3.5 25.7% 25.9% 19.4% 1.33× 3.86
Rijeka & over 2.5 24.6% 21.6% 28.4% 0.76× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.9% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.63
Hajduk Split & over 1.5 20.4% 21.6% 24.2% 0.89× 4.63
Hajduk Split & under 3.5 20.0% 21.6% 17.1% 1.27× 4.63
Rijeka & under 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 19.4% 0.92× 5.57
Hajduk Split & over 2.5 15.5% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Rijeka & over 3.5 11.9% 12.9% 14.7% 0.88× 7.78
Hajduk Split & under 2.5 11.3% 12.9% 10.9% 1.18× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 10.6% 12.9% 8.1% 1.60× 7.78
Rijeka & under 1.5 8.9% 8.0% 8.5% 0.93× 12.56
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 8.0% 7.1% 1.12× 12.57
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 8.0% 7.1% 1.12× 12.57
Hajduk Split & under 1.5 6.4% 8.0% 3.3% 2.40× 12.57
Hajduk Split & over 3.5 6.8% 8.0% 10.4% 0.76× 12.56
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (1UP) 57.6% 58.1% 1.72
Hajduk Split (1UP) 44.5% 39.5% 2.53
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (2UP) 41.7% 47.6% 2.10
Hajduk Split (2UP) 26.8% 24.8% 4.04
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.8% 36.0% 2.78
Rijeka to win 2nd half 34.9% 34.5% 2.90
Hajduk Split to win 2nd half 26.3% 26.4% 3.79
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.8% 86.6% 1.16
Hajduk Split under 0.5 in 2nd half 51.7% 53.3% 1.88
Hajduk Split over 0.5 in 2nd half 48.3% 46.7% 2.14
Hajduk Split over 1.5 in 2nd half 14.2% 13.4% 7.46
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 82.4% 1.21
Rijeka over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.3% 58.8% 1.70
Rijeka under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.7% 41.2% 2.43
Rijeka over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 17.7% 5.67
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split (+2.5) 92.0% 92.1% 90.0% 1.02× 1.09
Hajduk Split (+1.5) 78.8% 78.3% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Rijeka (+0.5) 73.2% 73.7% 73.0% 1.01× 1.36
Hajduk Split (+0.5) 58.3% 56.9% 52.6% 1.08× 1.76
Rijeka (-0.5) 41.7% 43.1% 47.4% 0.91× 2.32
Hajduk Split (-0.5) 26.8% 26.3% 27.0% 0.97× 3.80
Rijeka (-1.5) 21.2% 21.7% 27.5% 0.79× 4.61
Rijeka (-2.5) 8.0% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split to concede 75.7% 78.7% 78.2% 1.01× 1.27
Hajduk Split clean sheet 24.3% 21.3% 21.8% 0.98× 4.70
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split to concede in 1st half 45.5% 50.6% 1.98
Hajduk Split clean sheet in 1st half 54.5% 49.4% 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split to concede in 2nd half 55.3% 58.4% 1.71
Hajduk Split clean sheet in 2nd half 44.7% 41.6% 2.40
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split under 3.5 goals 97.4% 97.4% 94.8% 1.03× 1.03
Hajduk Split under 2.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 87.7% 1.05× 1.09
Hajduk Split under 1.5 goals 69.9% 67.9% 65.4% 1.04× 1.47
Hajduk Split over 0.5 goals 66.7% 67.9% 66.4% 1.02× 1.47
Hajduk Split under 0.5 goals 33.3% 32.1% 33.6% 0.96× 3.11
Hajduk Split over 1.5 goals 30.1% 32.1% 34.6% 0.93× 3.11
Hajduk Split over 2.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 12.3% 0.64× 12.77
Hajduk Split over 3.5 goals 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 0.49× 38.81
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split under 1.5 in 1st half 92.8% 94.2% 1.06
Hajduk Split under 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 64.2% 1.56
Hajduk Split over 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 35.8% 2.79
Hajduk Split over 1.5 in 1st half 7.2% 5.8% 17.21
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split scores equally in both 43.7% 43.8% 2.28
Hajduk Split scores more in 2nd half 35.3% 36.4% 2.75
Hajduk Split scores more in 1st half 21.0% 22.4% 4.47
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (away no bet) 56.9% 57.4% 64.5% 0.89× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.1% 42.6% 35.5% 1.20× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split even goals 55.6% 56.9% 59.2% 0.96× 1.76
Hajduk Split odd goals 44.4% 43.1% 40.8% 1.06× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.9% 87.7% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.1% 12.3% 8.15
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.4% 57.9% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.6% 42.1% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 51.5% 51.3% 1.95
Rijeka to score 2+ in a row 33.8% 29.1% 3.43
Hajduk Split to score 2+ in a row 22.7% 19.5% 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.0% 16.3% 6.14
Rijeka to score 3+ in a row 11.4% 12.1% 8.25
Hajduk Split to score 3+ in a row 5.8% 5.6% 17.87
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 15.1% 13.5% 11.8% 1.14× 7.39
0-0 10.6% 11.4% 8.1% 1.41× 8.80
1-0 8.9% 7.4% 8.5% 0.87× 13.53
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 10.9% 0.68× 13.53
0-1 6.4% 7.4% 3.3% 2.23× 13.54
1-2 6.9% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.54
2-0 8.1% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.54
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 8.1% 0.22× 57.55
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 57.57
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.22× 57.58
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.57
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 57.58
2-2 4.9% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 57.55
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 57.57
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 3.8% 0.46× 57.56
3-1 4.2% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.56
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 57.57
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.57
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.57
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 57.58
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
Any other score 2.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.41× 57.57
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (2nd half DNB) 57.1% 60.5% 1.65
Hajduk Split (2nd half DNB) 42.9% 39.5% 2.53
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka leading at HT (DNB) 60.3% 65.2% 1.53
Hajduk Split leading at HT (DNB) 39.7% 34.8% 2.87
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka or draw (1X) 73.2% 72.3% 73.0% 0.99× 1.38
Rijeka or Hajduk Split (12) 68.4% 69.4% 73.9% 0.94× 1.44
Hajduk Split or draw (X2) 58.3% 57.1% 52.6% 1.08× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka or draw at HT 78.6% 80.0% 1.25
Hajduk Split or draw at HT 67.4% 66.3% 1.51
Rijeka or Hajduk Split at HT 54.0% 47.8% 2.09
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka or draw (1UP) 73.2% 80.2% 1.25
Hajduk Split or draw (1UP) 58.3% 62.8% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka or draw in 2nd half 73.7% 73.6% 1.36
Hajduk Split or draw in 2nd half 65.1% 65.5% 1.53
Rijeka or Hajduk Split in 2nd half 61.2% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.3% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.7% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (DNB) 60.9% 63.0% 63.7% 0.99× 1.59
Hajduk Split (DNB) 39.1% 37.0% 36.3% 1.02× 2.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka to score first 50.3% 53.7% 1.86
Hajduk Split to score first 39.1% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 10.6% 9.6% 10.46
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.0% 51.6% 52.6% 0.98× 1.94
Not both teams to score 47.0% 48.4% 47.4% 1.02× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 39.0% 38.7% 37.4% 1.03× 2.59
Both score & over 2.5 37.9% 38.6% 41.2% 0.94× 2.59
Both score & under 2.5 15.1% 21.3% 11.8% 1.80× 4.69
Not both score & over 2.5 8.1% 8.4% 10.4% 0.80× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.6% 85.4% 88.2% 0.97× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.4% 14.6% 11.8% 1.23× 6.85
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.4% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.6% 25.9% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.1% 66.2% 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 23.2% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 12.3% 10.7% 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.3% 5.0% 19.85
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.4% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 16.6% 17.5% 5.71
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.1% 53.3% 1.88
A half without a goal 48.9% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 49.5% 46.9% 50.2% 0.93× 2.13
0-1 goals 26.0% 27.0% 19.0% 1.42× 3.71
4-6 goals 23.0% 23.1% 29.4% 0.78× 4.34
7+ goals 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 0.78× 53.98
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.8% 32.2% 1.11× 2.80
Hajduk Split to score exactly 0 33.3% 33.6% 33.6% 1.00× 2.97
Hajduk Split to score exactly 2 20.1% 22.5% 22.7% 0.99× 4.45
Hajduk Split to score 3+ 9.9% 8.8% 12.3% 0.71× 11.38
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka to score exactly 1 34.4% 32.6% 31.8% 1.03× 3.06
Rijeka to score exactly 0 24.3% 23.4% 21.8% 1.07× 4.28
Rijeka to score exactly 2 24.3% 23.4% 29.4% 0.79× 4.28
Rijeka to score 3+ 17.0% 19.2% 18.0% 1.06× 5.22
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.0% 52.2% 1.91
Rijeka leading at HT 32.6% 33.7% 2.97
Hajduk Split leading at HT 21.4% 20.0% 5.01
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka -1: 2 58.3% 56.7% 1.76
Rijeka -1: 1 21.2% 23.6% 4.23
Rijeka -1: X 20.5% 23.6% 4.23
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split (0:1) 58.3% 55.7% 52.6% 1.06× 1.80
Rijeka (0:1) 21.2% 24.4% 27.5% 0.89× 4.10
Draw (0:1) 20.5% 24.4% 20.4% 1.20× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split (0:2) 78.8% 79.6% 72.5% 1.10× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.2% 10.9% 18.0% 0.60× 9.21
Rijeka (0:2) 8.0% 7.7% 10.0% 0.77× 12.98
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split (0:3) 92.0% 92.7% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.5% 5.9% 6.6% 0.89× 16.95
Rijeka (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 3.8% 0.62× 42.30
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split (0:4) 97.6% 98.1% 96.2% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 2.8% 0.43× 81.77
Rijeka (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.86× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (1:0) 73.2% 72.7% 73.0% 1.00× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.4% 17.1% 8.5% 2.00× 5.86
Hajduk Split (1:0) 11.4% 12.7% 19.0% 0.67× 7.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka (2:0) 88.6% 88.3% 81.0% 1.09× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.0% 6.6% 12.8% 0.51× 15.23
Hajduk Split (2:0) 3.4% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 41.30
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.7% 48.9% 2.05
Halves equal 30.0% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 25.4% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka to concede 66.7% 66.5% 66.4% 1.00× 1.50
Rijeka clean sheet 33.3% 33.5% 33.6% 0.99× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka clean sheet in 1st half 64.4% 64.2% 1.56
Rijeka to concede in 1st half 35.6% 35.8% 2.80
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka clean sheet in 2nd half 51.7% 53.2% 1.88
Rijeka to concede in 2nd half 48.3% 46.8% 2.14
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka under 3.5 goals 94.5% 92.1% 91.5% 1.01× 1.09
Rijeka under 2.5 goals 83.0% 81.9% 82.0% 1.00× 1.22
Rijeka over 0.5 goals 75.7% 77.4% 78.2% 0.99× 1.29
Rijeka under 1.5 goals 58.7% 58.6% 53.1% 1.10× 1.71
Rijeka over 1.5 goals 41.3% 41.4% 46.9% 0.88× 2.41
Rijeka under 0.5 goals 24.3% 22.6% 21.8% 1.04× 4.42
Rijeka over 2.5 goals 17.0% 18.1% 18.0% 1.00× 5.53
Rijeka over 3.5 goals 5.5% 7.9% 8.5% 0.92× 12.70
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka under 1.5 in 1st half 87.6% 89.8% 1.11
Rijeka over 0.5 in 1st half 45.5% 50.8% 1.97
Rijeka under 0.5 in 1st half 54.5% 49.2% 2.03
Rijeka over 1.5 in 1st half 12.4% 10.2% 9.79
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka scores equally in both 37.8% 37.7% 2.65
Rijeka scores more in 2nd half 37.0% 37.7% 2.66
Rijeka scores more in 1st half 25.2% 28.0% 3.58
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 54.1% 51.6% 49.1% 1.05× 1.94
Hajduk Split (home no bet) 45.9% 48.4% 50.9% 0.95× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka even goals 53.0% 50.4% 57.8% 0.87× 1.98
Rijeka odd goals 47.0% 49.6% 42.2% 1.18× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.5% 38.5% 2.60
HT 1-0 20.9% 24.1% 4.14
HT 0-1 15.0% 11.0% 9.13
HT 1-1 9.8% 7.2% 13.99
HT 2-0 6.5% 7.1% 14.04
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.3% 43.45
Any other HT score 3.4% 2.3% 43.46
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.3% 43.49
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.3% 43.66
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka at HT / Rijeka at FT 24.8% 21.8% 4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.6% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Rijeka at FT 14.7% 12.7% 7.88
Hajduk Split at HT / Hajduk Split at FT 14.1% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Hajduk Split at FT 10.7% 12.6% 7.91
Rijeka at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.71
Hajduk Split at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.73
Hajduk Split at HT / Rijeka at FT 2.2% 3.5% 28.84
Rijeka at HT / Hajduk Split at FT 1.9% 3.5% 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka to score last 50.4% 51.9% 1.93
Hajduk Split to score last 38.9% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 10.6% 9.0% 11.17
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.4% 91.0% 1.10
Rijeka to lead by 1 at any time 57.6% 55.1% 1.82
Hajduk Split to lead by 1 at any time 44.5% 39.3% 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.0% 39.2% 2.55
Rijeka to lead by 2 at any time 26.9% 25.5% 3.93
Hajduk Split to lead by 2 at any time 16.3% 14.9% 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.4% 10.5% 9.52
Rijeka to lead by 3 at any time 9.8% 6.7% 14.99
Hajduk Split to lead by 3 at any time 4.6% 1.7% 59.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.4% 87.2% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.3% 78.5% 80.6% 0.97× 1.27
2-6 goals 72.6% 72.3% 79.1% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.8% 68.9% 76.3% 0.90× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.9% 63.1% 61.1% 1.03× 1.58
2-4 goals 63.0% 63.1% 69.7% 0.91× 1.58
2-3 goals 49.5% 48.5% 50.2% 0.96× 2.06
3-6 goals 44.5% 43.6% 49.3% 0.88× 2.29
1-2 goals 43.4% 43.6% 41.2% 1.06× 2.29
3-5 goals 41.6% 43.6% 46.4% 0.94× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.9% 35.3% 39.8% 0.89× 2.83
4-6 goals 23.0% 24.8% 29.4% 0.84× 4.03
4-5 goals 20.2% 24.8% 26.5% 0.93× 4.03
5-6 goals 9.6% 9.0% 10.0% 0.90× 11.12
7+ goals 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.08× 38.94
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rijeka never behind 44.8% 48.4% 2.07
Hajduk Split never behind 31.8% 35.5% 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 44.6% 50.3% 39.8% 1.26× 1.99
Even number of goals 55.4% 49.7% 60.2% 0.83× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.0% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 43.0% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.4% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.6% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.7% 95.4% 94.8% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 89.4% 87.4% 91.9% 0.95× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 89.0% 87.4% 88.2% 0.99× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 75.5% 77.2% 68.7% 1.12× 1.30
Over 1.5 goals 74.0% 72.4% 81.0% 0.89× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 54.1% 53.0% 48.8% 1.09× 1.89
Over 2.5 goals 45.9% 47.0% 51.2% 0.92× 2.13
Under 1.5 goals 26.0% 27.6% 19.0% 1.46× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 24.5% 22.8% 31.3% 0.73× 4.39
Over 4.5 goals 11.0% 12.6% 11.8% 1.06× 7.96
Under 0.5 goals 10.6% 12.6% 8.1% 1.56× 7.96
Over 5.5 goals 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% 0.88× 21.71
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.5% 97.2% 97.6% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.4% 97.1% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 87.2% 86.6% 85.3% 1.02× 1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 68.8% 67.6% 60.9% 1.11× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.9% 61.7% 73.0% 0.85× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.1% 38.3% 27.0% 1.42× 2.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 31.2% 32.4% 39.1% 0.83× 3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 12.8% 13.4% 14.7% 0.91× 7.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.6% 2.9% 5.6% 0.51× 35.03
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.5% 2.8% 2.4% 1.17× 35.11
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.1% 92.6% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.4% 71.2% 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.5% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.5% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.6% 28.8% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.9% 7.4% 13.53
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.8% 82.7% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 79.7% 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.1% 54.7% 1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.9% 45.3% 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 20.3% 4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.2% 17.3% 5.79
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split not to score in both halves 82.8% 84.4% 1.19
Rijeka not to score in both halves 74.8% 73.8% 1.35
Rijeka to score in both halves 25.2% 26.2% 3.82
Hajduk Split to score in both halves 17.2% 15.6% 6.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.0% 54.3% 52.6% 1.03× 1.84
Only Rijeka scores 22.7% 22.0% 26.1% 0.85× 4.54
Only Hajduk Split scores 13.7% 11.1% 14.2% 0.78× 9.02
Neither team scores 10.6% 11.1% 8.1% 1.37× 9.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.1% 24.7% 30.3% 0.81× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 21.4% 22.4% 20.4% 1.10× 4.46
Exactly 1 goals 15.3% 17.5% 11.4% 1.54× 5.70
Exactly 4 goals 13.5% 12.0% 19.9% 0.61× 8.30
Exactly 0 goals 10.6% 12.0% 8.1% 1.49× 8.31
Exactly 5 goals 6.8% 7.8% 7.1% 1.10× 12.83
6 or more goals 4.3% 4.5% 5.2% 0.86× 22.19
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.9% 37.1% 2.70
No goals in 1st half 35.5% 37.1% 2.70
2 goals in 1st half 19.7% 15.3% 6.53
3+ goals in 1st half 8.9% 7.4% 13.53
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.9% 44.7% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.3% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 24.0% 23.1% 4.33
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split not to win both halves 94.1% 94.0% 1.06
Rijeka not to win both halves 88.2% 87.9% 1.14
Rijeka to win both halves 11.8% 12.1% 8.30
Hajduk Split to win both halves 5.9% 6.0% 16.70
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split to win neither half 58.2% 59.5% 1.68
Rijeka to win either half 55.7% 59.4% 1.68
Rijeka to win neither half 44.3% 40.6% 2.47
Hajduk Split to win either half 41.8% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hajduk Split not to win to nil 86.3% 87.9% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
Rijeka not to win to nil 77.3% 78.3% 73.9% 1.06× 1.28
Rijeka to win to nil 22.7% 21.7% 26.1% 0.83× 4.62
Hajduk Split to win to nil 13.7% 12.1% 14.2% 0.85× 8.28
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 31.6% 27.6% 26.1% 1.06× 3.63
Rijeka by 1 20.5% 24.2% 20.4% 1.19× 4.14
Hajduk Split by 1 15.4% 16.9% 8.5% 1.98× 5.92
Rijeka by 2 13.2% 11.7% 18.0% 0.65× 8.52
Rijeka by 3+ 8.0% 7.3% 10.0% 0.73× 13.74
Hajduk Split by 2 8.0% 7.3% 12.8% 0.57× 13.74
Hajduk Split by 3+ 3.4% 2.8% 6.6% 0.42× 35.52
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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