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RKC Waalwijk v FC Den Bosch — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
RKC Waalwijk win
51.2%
model 53.0%
Draw
22.1%
model 20.2%
FC Den Bosch win
26.7%
model 26.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.0%
  2. 1-1 8.1%
  3. 2-2 6.7%
  4. 3-1 6.5%
  5. 1-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.570.4% Under 2.529.6%
BTTS yes68.1% BTTS no31.9%
RKC Waalwijk 1+88.3% RKC Waalwijk 2+63.3%
FC Den Bosch 1+77.4% FC Den Bosch 2+43.8%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.49. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
60/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1X)
Double chance · usually 67%
72.7% fair odds 1.38
moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.7% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1511 Elo against 1400.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

RKC Waalwijk have an estimated 51.2% win probability, against 26.7% for FC Den Bosch and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for RKC Waalwijk and 1.49 for FC Den Bosch.

Why RKC Waalwijk

RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1511 Elo against 1400.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why FC Den Bosch can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for RKC Waalwijk, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RKC Waalwijk: 52% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch: 50% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. RKC Waalwijk's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

RKC Waalwijk are the model's most likely outcome at 51.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.0%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.15–1.49 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.18–1.55 2-1 9% 72% 70%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win 52.5% 51.5% 44.5% 1.16× 1.94
FC Den Bosch to win 27.5% 27.9% 33.5% 0.83× 3.58
Draw 20.0% 19.4% 22.1% 0.88× 5.15
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk & both teams score 33.3% 29.6% 22.0% 1.35× 3.38
RKC Waalwijk & not both score 19.2% 18.0% 22.6% 0.80× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & both teams score 18.4% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 17.9% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.57
FC Den Bosch & not both score 9.2% 8.3% 14.0% 0.59× 12.00
Draw & not both score 2.1% 4.9% 4.8% 1.01× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk & over 1.5 47.0% 45.0% 37.0% 1.22× 2.22
RKC Waalwijk & over 2.5 41.2% 40.2% 30.8% 1.30× 2.49
RKC Waalwijk & over 3.5 28.2% 26.1% 18.9% 1.38× 3.84
RKC Waalwijk & under 3.5 24.2% 21.6% 25.7% 0.84× 4.63
FC Den Bosch & over 1.5 23.5% 21.6% 27.4% 0.79× 4.63
FC Den Bosch & over 2.5 20.7% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 17.9% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & under 3.5 14.6% 12.8% 19.8% 0.65× 7.79
FC Den Bosch & over 3.5 12.9% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
RKC Waalwijk & under 2.5 11.2% 12.8% 13.8% 0.93× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 10.0% 12.8% 8.1% 1.58× 7.79
Draw & over 3.5 10.0% 12.8% 8.1% 1.58× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 10.0% 7.9% 14.1% 0.56× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 10.0% 7.9% 14.1% 0.56× 12.63
FC Den Bosch & under 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 10.0% 0.80× 12.63
RKC Waalwijk & under 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 7.6% 1.04× 12.63
FC Den Bosch & under 1.5 4.0% 4.8% 6.3% 0.77× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 2.1% 4.8% 4.8% 1.00× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (1UP) 70.1% 74.9% — — 1.33
FC Den Bosch (1UP) 49.7% 44.1% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2UP) 52.5% 55.0% — — 1.82
FC Den Bosch (2UP) 27.5% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win 2nd half 43.6% 41.9% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 28.7% 26.1% — — 3.83
FC Den Bosch to win 2nd half 27.7% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.2% 79.1% — — 1.27
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.5% 60.1% — — 1.66
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.5% 39.9% — — 2.51
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 2nd half 23.8% 20.9% — — 4.78
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 2nd half 71.2% 74.3% — — 1.35
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 2nd half 64.7% 63.0% — — 1.59
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 2nd half 35.3% 37.0% — — 2.70
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 2nd half 28.8% 25.7% — — 3.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (+2.5) 84.1% 82.6% 88.2% 0.94× 1.21
RKC Waalwijk (+0.5) 72.5% 73.6% 66.5% 1.11× 1.36
FC Den Bosch (+1.5) 68.5% 68.7% 75.6% 0.91× 1.46
RKC Waalwijk (-0.5) 52.5% 52.4% 44.5% 1.18× 1.91
FC Den Bosch (+0.5) 47.5% 47.6% 55.5% 0.86× 2.10
RKC Waalwijk (-1.5) 31.5% 31.3% 24.4% 1.28× 3.19
FC Den Bosch (-0.5) 27.5% 26.4% 33.5% 0.79× 3.80
RKC Waalwijk (-2.5) 15.9% 17.4% 11.8% 1.48× 5.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede 88.7% 86.3% 81.3% 1.06× 1.16
FC Den Bosch clean sheet 11.3% 13.7% 18.7% 0.73× 7.30
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede in 1st half 60.9% 64.2% — — 1.56
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 1st half 39.1% 35.8% — — 2.80
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede in 2nd half 71.2% 71.3% — — 1.40
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 2nd half 28.8% 28.8% — — 3.48
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 corners 87.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 corners 75.6% 76.0% — — 1.32
FC Den Bosch under 6.5 corners 66.3% 67.6% — — 1.48
FC Den Bosch over 4.5 corners 61.4% 61.8% — — 1.62
FC Den Bosch under 5.5 corners 53.2% 53.1% — — 1.89
FC Den Bosch over 5.5 corners 46.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
FC Den Bosch under 4.5 corners 38.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
FC Den Bosch over 6.5 corners 33.7% 32.4% — — 3.09
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 corners 24.4% 24.0% — — 4.17
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 corners 12.5% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 goals 92.8% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 goals 79.7% 76.3% 81.5% 0.94× 1.31
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 goals 78.7% 76.3% 72.7% 1.05× 1.31
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 goals 54.2% 53.5% 58.0% 0.92× 1.87
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 goals 45.8% 46.5% 42.0% 1.11× 2.15
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 goals 21.3% 23.7% 27.3% 0.87× 4.21
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 goals 20.3% 23.7% 18.6% 1.28× 4.21
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 7.0% 1.09× 13.06
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 1st half 87.2% 89.4% — — 1.12
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 1st half 53.9% 55.5% — — 1.80
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 1st half 46.1% 44.5% — — 2.25
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 1st half 12.8% 10.6% — — 9.43
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch scores more in 2nd half 41.2% 43.5% — — 2.30
FC Den Bosch scores equally in both 35.4% 37.4% — — 2.67
FC Den Bosch scores more in 1st half 23.4% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (away no bet) 72.4% 68.4% 66.8% 1.02× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 27.6% 31.6% 33.2% 0.95× 3.16
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch even goals 52.3% 52.6% 57.0% 0.92× 1.90
FC Den Bosch odd goals 47.7% 47.4% 43.0% 1.10× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 70.6% 76.7% — — 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 29.4% 23.3% — — 4.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 80.4% 78.2% — — 1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals 19.6% 21.8% — — 4.58
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 72.0% 71.7% — — 1.40
RKC Waalwijk to score 2+ in a row 52.7% 50.9% — — 1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 32.5% 29.1% — — 3.44
FC Den Bosch to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 29.1% — — 3.44
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+ in a row 23.6% 19.6% — — 5.09
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ in a row 9.9% 5.6% — — 17.88
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch corners (+3.5) 83.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
RKC Waalwijk corners (+3.5) 80.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
FC Den Bosch corners (+2.5) 76.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
RKC Waalwijk corners (+2.5) 72.8% 70.7% — — 1.41
FC Den Bosch corners (+1.5) 67.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
RKC Waalwijk corners (+1.5) 63.5% 61.8% — — 1.62
FC Den Bosch corners (-1.5) 36.5% 38.2% — — 2.62
RKC Waalwijk corners (-1.5) 32.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
FC Den Bosch corners (-2.5) 27.2% 29.3% — — 3.42
RKC Waalwijk corners (-2.5) 24.0% 25.2% — — 3.97
FC Den Bosch corners (-3.5) 19.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
RKC Waalwijk corners (-3.5) 16.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 41.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 30.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
0-8 corners 28.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 80.8% 80.6% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 71.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 67.5% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 62.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 58.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 51.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 48.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 11.5 corners 41.7% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 9.5 corners 38.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 32.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 28.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 19.2% 19.4% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-1 8.8% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.51
Any other score 9.0% 7.4% 4.7% 1.59× 13.51
1-1 7.8% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-2 6.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
1-0 5.5% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
1-2 6.3% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-0 5.7% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.51
3-1 6.4% 7.4% 4.9% 1.51× 13.51
3-2 5.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.29
0-0 2.1% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.31
0-1 4.0% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.30
0-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.30
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.32
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-3 3.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
3-0 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
3-3 2.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.30
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.31
4-0 2.3% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
4-1 3.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.30
4-2 2.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.30
4-3 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.49× 58.31
4-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% 13.96× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2nd half DNB) 61.1% 62.6% — — 1.60
FC Den Bosch (2nd half DNB) 38.9% 37.4% — — 2.67
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT (DNB) 64.2% 65.6% — — 1.52
FC Den Bosch leading at HT (DNB) 35.8% 34.4% — — 2.91
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk or FC Den Bosch (12) 80.0% 80.6% 77.9% 1.03× 1.24
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1X) 72.5% 72.1% 66.5% 1.08× 1.39
FC Den Bosch or draw (X2) 47.5% 48.5% 55.5% 0.87× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw at HT 76.7% 79.4% — — 1.26
RKC Waalwijk or FC Den Bosch at HT 64.9% 61.0% — — 1.64
FC Den Bosch or draw at HT 58.4% 57.7% — — 1.73
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1UP) 72.5% 79.5% — — 1.26
FC Den Bosch or draw (1UP) 49.7% 53.5% — — 1.87
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw in 2nd half 72.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
RKC Waalwijk or FC Den Bosch in 2nd half 71.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
FC Den Bosch or draw in 2nd half 56.4% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.1% 50.3% — — 1.99
Neither half drawn 45.9% 49.7% — — 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (DNB) 65.6% 67.3% 57.0% 1.18× 1.49
FC Den Bosch (DNB) 34.4% 32.7% 43.0% 0.76× 3.06
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score first 57.3% 62.2% — — 1.61
FC Den Bosch to score first 40.6% 41.6% — — 2.41
No goal scored 2.1% 4.3% — — 23.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 69.6% 58.5% 58.8% 0.99× 1.71
Not both teams to score 30.4% 41.5% 41.2% 1.01× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 61.7% 50.4% 49.5% 1.02× 1.98
Not both score & under 2.5 20.2% 27.8% 28.3% 0.98× 3.60
Not both score & over 2.5 10.2% 12.4% 13.0% 0.95× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 7.8% 8.3% 9.5% 0.88× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 70.7% 80.4% 79.0% 1.02× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 29.3% 19.6% 21.0% 0.93× 5.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 57.1% 65.1% — — 1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half 42.9% 34.9% — — 2.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 41.1% 50.2% — — 1.99
Both score 2nd half only 30.9% 27.5% — — 3.64
Both score 1st half only 16.0% 15.0% — — 6.68
Both score in both halves 12.1% 10.8% — — 9.28
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 72.0% 79.5% — — 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 28.0% 20.5% — — 4.89
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 69.8% 66.1% — — 1.51
A half without a goal 30.2% 33.9% — — 2.95
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 42.8% 42.2% 37.6% 1.12× 2.37
2-3 goals 37.2% 35.1% 41.0% 0.86× 2.85
0-1 goals 11.6% 17.0% 18.4% 0.92× 5.90
7+ goals 8.4% 7.6% 3.2% 2.39× 13.12
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 1 32.9% 33.8% 30.8% 1.10× 2.96
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 2 25.5% 27.4% 23.6% 1.16× 3.65
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 0 21.3% 22.3% 27.3% 0.82× 4.49
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ 20.3% 22.3% 18.6% 1.20× 4.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+ 37.2% 35.6% 25.6% 1.39× 2.81
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 2 26.9% 26.5% 25.8% 1.03× 3.77
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 1 24.6% 23.3% 30.2% 0.77× 4.29
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 0 11.3% 14.3% 18.7% 0.77× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT 41.6% 42.3% — — 2.36
Draw at HT 35.1% 39.0% — — 2.56
FC Den Bosch leading at HT 23.3% 20.6% — — 4.86
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk -1: 2 47.5% 46.9% — — 2.13
RKC Waalwijk -1: 1 31.5% 30.0% — — 3.33
RKC Waalwijk -1: X 21.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:1) 47.5% 46.2% 55.5% 0.83× 2.17
RKC Waalwijk (0:1) 31.5% 30.1% 24.4% 1.23× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 21.0% 24.2% 20.1% 1.20× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:2) 68.5% 72.3% 75.6% 0.96× 1.38
RKC Waalwijk (0:2) 15.9% 15.3% 11.8% 1.29× 6.56
Draw (0:2) 15.6% 15.2% 12.8% 1.19× 6.56
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:3) 84.1% 85.4% 88.2% 0.97× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 9.1% 5.8% 5.7% 1.03× 17.20
RKC Waalwijk (0:3) 6.8% 5.8% 6.3% 0.93× 17.24
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:4) 93.2% 94.5% 93.7% 1.01× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.3% 1.2% 4.3% 0.28× 81.69
RKC Waalwijk (0:4) 2.5% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (1:0) 72.5% 72.4% 66.5% 1.09× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.0% 12.7% 18.2% 0.70× 7.86
FC Den Bosch (1:0) 12.6% 12.7% 15.5% 0.82× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2:0) 87.4% 88.5% 84.5% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.8% 6.4% 8.8% 0.72× 15.66
FC Den Bosch (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 6.8% 0.34× 43.59
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 20.2% 24.3% — — 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to concede 78.7% 76.1% 72.7% 1.05× 1.31
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet 21.3% 23.9% 27.3% 0.88× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 1st half 53.9% 55.5% — — 1.80
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 1st half 46.1% 44.5% — — 2.25
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 2nd half 60.5% 59.7% — — 1.68
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 2nd half 39.5% 40.3% — — 2.48
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 corners 86.1% 86.2% — — 1.16
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 corners 73.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
RKC Waalwijk under 6.5 corners 69.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
RKC Waalwijk over 4.5 corners 58.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
RKC Waalwijk under 5.5 corners 56.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
RKC Waalwijk over 5.5 corners 43.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
RKC Waalwijk under 4.5 corners 41.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
RKC Waalwijk over 6.5 corners 31.0% 33.3% — — 3.01
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 corners 26.5% 28.1% — — 3.55
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 corners 13.9% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 goals 88.7% 87.3% 81.3% 1.07× 1.15
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 goals 82.3% 82.2% 89.9% 0.91× 1.22
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 goals 64.1% 63.6% 51.2% 1.24× 1.57
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 goals 62.8% 63.6% 74.4% 0.85× 1.57
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 goals 37.2% 36.4% 25.6% 1.42× 2.75
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 goals 35.9% 36.4% 48.8% 0.75× 2.75
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 goals 17.7% 17.8% 10.1% 1.76× 5.63
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 goals 11.3% 12.7% 18.7% 0.68× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 1st half 75.9% 76.9% — — 1.30
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 1st half 60.9% 63.9% — — 1.57
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 1st half 39.1% 36.1% — — 2.77
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 1st half 24.2% 23.1% — — 4.33
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 2nd half 43.3% 42.1% — — 2.38
RKC Waalwijk scores equally in both 28.8% 27.9% — — 3.59
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 1st half 27.9% 27.9% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (home no bet) 57.9% 56.4% 60.3% 0.94× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.1% 43.6% 39.7% 1.10× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk even goals 50.6% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
RKC Waalwijk odd goals 49.4% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 21.0% 24.3% — — 4.12
HT 1-0 19.8% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 0-1 13.1% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 12.2% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.43
Any other HT score 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.43
HT 2-1 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 0-2 4.0% 2.4% — — 41.95
HT 1-2 3.8% 2.4% — — 41.96
HT 2-2 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT 33.3% 32.4% — — 3.09
Draw at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT 15.5% 16.8% — — 5.96
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 14.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 9.9% 6.1% — — 16.37
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.8% 6.1% — — 16.37
RKC Waalwijk at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.1% — — 16.49
FC Den Bosch at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.80
FC Den Bosch at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT 3.7% 3.5% — — 28.84
RKC Waalwijk at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score last 57.2% 56.4% — — 1.77
FC Den Bosch to score last 40.6% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 2.1% 4.3% — — 23.35
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.9% 95.7% — — 1.05
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 1 at any time 70.1% 73.8% — — 1.36
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 60.7% 61.2% — — 1.63
FC Den Bosch to lead by 1 at any time 49.7% 44.4% — — 2.25
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 2 at any time 40.9% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.2% 25.4% — — 3.94
FC Den Bosch to lead by 2 at any time 20.6% 19.5% — — 5.12
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 3 at any time 20.1% 19.5% — — 5.13
FC Den Bosch to lead by 3 at any time 7.2% 6.7% — — 14.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch most corners 46.7% 47.0% — — 2.13
RKC Waalwijk most corners 42.8% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 80.5% 83.4% 86.4% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.0% 78.7% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.0% 72.3% 72.7% 0.99× 1.38
1-4 goals 66.1% 68.8% 74.1% 0.93× 1.45
3-6 goals 63.5% 63.3% 59.3% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 56.6% 59.1% 60.4% 0.98× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.6% 53.2% 53.6% 0.99× 1.88
1-3 goals 46.7% 48.5% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
4-6 goals 42.8% 43.6% 37.6% 1.16× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.1% 43.6% 41.3% 1.06× 2.29
2-3 goals 37.2% 39.2% 41.0% 0.95× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.8% 35.2% 31.8% 1.11× 2.84
1-2 goals 25.9% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
5-6 goals 23.4% 24.5% 18.2% 1.35× 4.09
7+ goals 8.4% 8.9% 3.2% 2.78× 11.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk never behind 48.2% 56.6% — — 1.77
FC Den Bosch never behind 27.8% 30.0% — — 3.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.5% 50.9% 49.6% 1.03× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.5% 49.1% 50.4% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.1% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 47.9% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.5% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.9% 95.4% 95.2% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 88.4% 87.6% 81.6% 1.07× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 82.6% 82.3% 91.0% 0.90× 1.22
Over 2.5 goals 71.9% 72.5% 62.4% 1.16× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 68.2% 66.3% 78.7% 0.84× 1.51
Over 3.5 goals 51.2% 52.5% 40.7% 1.29× 1.90
Under 3.5 goals 48.8% 47.5% 59.3% 0.80× 2.11
Over 4.5 goals 31.8% 33.7% 21.3% 1.59× 2.97
Under 2.5 goals 28.1% 27.5% 37.6% 0.73× 3.63
Over 5.5 goals 17.4% 17.7% 9.0% 1.97× 5.66
Under 1.5 goals 11.6% 12.4% 18.4% 0.67× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 2.1% 4.6% 4.8% 0.95× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 90.8% 92.4% 96.6% 0.96× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 86.1% 86.7% 77.2% 1.12× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 79.7% 75.9% 89.8% 0.85× 1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 64.6% 62.0% 52.0% 1.19× 1.61
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 60.6% 61.9% 73.6% 0.84× 1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 39.4% 38.1% 26.4% 1.44× 2.63
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 35.4% 38.1% 48.0% 0.79× 2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 20.3% 24.1% 10.2% 2.35× 4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 13.9% 13.3% 22.8% 0.58× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 9.2% 7.6% 3.4% 2.24× 13.15
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 79.4% 78.6% — — 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 79.0% 78.6% — — 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 53.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half 46.1% 45.1% — — 2.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 21.0% 21.4% — — 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 20.6% 21.4% — — 4.68
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 88.7% 85.5% — — 1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 63.7% 61.4% — — 1.63
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 63.0% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 37.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 36.3% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 11.3% 14.5% — — 6.91
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to score in both halves 72.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
RKC Waalwijk not to score in both halves 56.7% 58.1% — — 1.72
RKC Waalwijk to score in both halves 43.3% 41.9% — — 2.39
FC Den Bosch to score in both halves 27.9% 26.1% — — 3.83
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 69.6% 60.1% 58.8% 1.02× 1.67
Only RKC Waalwijk scores 19.2% 16.0% 22.6% 0.71× 6.23
Only FC Den Bosch scores 9.2% 7.1% 14.0% 0.51× 14.02
Neither team scores 2.1% 4.6% 4.8% 0.96× 21.70
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 20.8% 22.6% 21.9% 1.03× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 19.4% 17.5% 19.5% 0.89× 5.73
6 or more goals 17.4% 17.5% 9.0% 1.95× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 16.4% 17.5% 19.3% 0.91× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 14.4% 12.1% 12.4% 0.98× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 9.5% 7.6% 13.8% 0.55× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 2.1% 4.5% 4.8% 0.93× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 32.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 25.5% 28.5% — — 3.51
No goals in 1st half 21.0% 21.4% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 20.6% 21.4% — — 4.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 63.7% 59.0% — — 1.69
1 goal in 2nd half 24.9% 22.8% — — 4.39
No goals in 2nd half 11.3% 14.3% — — 6.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win both halves 93.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
RKC Waalwijk not to win both halves 81.9% 83.8% — — 1.19
RKC Waalwijk to win both halves 18.1% 16.2% — — 6.16
FC Den Bosch to win both halves 6.4% 5.8% — — 17.13
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win either half 67.1% 67.7% — — 1.48
FC Den Bosch to win neither half 55.4% 59.1% — — 1.69
FC Den Bosch to win either half 44.6% 40.9% — — 2.44
RKC Waalwijk to win neither half 32.9% 32.3% — — 3.10
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win to nil 90.8% 92.1% 86.0% 1.07× 1.09
RKC Waalwijk not to win to nil 80.8% 83.1% 77.4% 1.07× 1.20
RKC Waalwijk to win to nil 19.2% 16.9% 22.6% 0.75× 5.91
FC Den Bosch to win to nil 9.2% 7.9% 14.0% 0.57× 12.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RKC Waalwijk by 1 21.0% 24.1% 20.1% 1.20× 4.15
Draw 20.0% 17.1% 22.1% 0.77× 5.86
RKC Waalwijk by 3+ 15.9% 17.0% 11.8% 1.45× 5.87
RKC Waalwijk by 2 15.6% 17.0% 12.8% 1.33× 5.87
FC Den Bosch by 1 15.0% 11.8% 18.2% 0.65× 8.51
FC Den Bosch by 2 7.8% 7.2% 8.8% 0.81× 13.90
FC Den Bosch by 3+ 4.7% 2.7% 6.8% 0.40× 36.78
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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