RKC Waalwijk v Jong Ajax — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 December 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

RKC Waalwijk

19:00 UTC

Jong Ajax

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,376h before kick-off

RKC Waalwijk win

63.0%

model 64.8%

Draw

18.5%

model 18.0%

Jong Ajax win

18.5%

model 17.2%

631919

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.5%
1-1 7.9%
1-0 7.5%
3-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	67.5%	Under 2.5	32.5%
BTTS yes	60.9%	BTTS no	39.1%
RKC Waalwijk 1+	90.4%	RKC Waalwijk 2+	68.0%
Jong Ajax 1+	67.7%	Jong Ajax 2+	31.2%

Expected goals 2.35 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

58/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

RKC Waalwijk (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 45%

63.8% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

RKC Waalwijk or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1511 Elo against 1307.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

RKC Waalwijk have an estimated 63.0% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 18.5% for Jong Ajax. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.35 for RKC Waalwijk and 1.13 for Jong Ajax.

Why RKC Waalwijk

RKC Waalwijk carry the stronger rating, 1511 Elo against 1307.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Jong Ajax can win

Nothing in the data singles out Jong Ajax.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for RKC Waalwijk, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Jong Ajax, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RKC Waalwijk: 52% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong Ajax: 52% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. RKC Waalwijk's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

RKC Waalwijk are the model's most likely outcome at 63.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	651817	2.35–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	681714	2.37–1.00	2-0 10%	65%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win	68.2%	64.8%	44.5%	1.46×	1.54
Draw	17.3%	19.4%	22.1%	0.88×	5.16
Jong Ajax to win	14.5%	13.5%	33.5%	0.40×	7.39

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk & both teams score	34.4%	29.6%	22.0%	1.35×	3.37
RKC Waalwijk & not both score	33.8%	29.6%	22.6%	1.31×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.1%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.53
Jong Ajax & both teams score	8.3%	8.3%	19.7%	0.42×	12.01
Jong Ajax & not both score	6.2%	8.3%	14.0%	0.59×	12.02
Draw & not both score	3.2%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.60

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk & over 1.5	59.7%	55.0%	37.0%	1.49×	1.82
RKC Waalwijk & over 2.5	50.0%	45.1%	30.8%	1.46×	2.22
RKC Waalwijk & under 3.5	35.5%	34.9%	25.7%	1.36×	2.87
RKC Waalwijk & over 3.5	32.7%	30.8%	18.9%	1.63×	3.25
RKC Waalwijk & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	13.8%	1.31×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	11.1%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Jong Ajax & over 1.5	10.8%	12.8%	27.4%	0.47×	7.79
Jong Ajax & under 3.5	10.0%	12.8%	19.8%	0.65×	7.79
Jong Ajax & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	23.7%	0.33×	12.63
RKC Waalwijk & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Jong Ajax & under 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Jong Ajax & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	13.9%	0.35×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.82
Jong Ajax & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.3%	0.77×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (1UP)	79.4%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Jong Ajax (1UP)	33.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2UP)	68.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Jong Ajax (2UP)	14.5%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win 2nd half	55.3%	60.8%	—	—	1.64
2nd half drawn	28.1%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Jong Ajax to win 2nd half	16.5%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	13.2%	—	—	7.59

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.1%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.9%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.1%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.9%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (+0.5)	85.5%	88.4%	66.5%	1.33×	1.13
Jong Ajax (+2.5)	74.6%	73.7%	88.2%	0.84×	1.36
RKC Waalwijk (-0.5)	68.2%	68.7%	44.5%	1.54×	1.46
Jong Ajax (+1.5)	54.6%	52.4%	75.6%	0.69×	1.91
RKC Waalwijk (-1.5)	45.4%	47.6%	24.4%	1.95×	2.10
Jong Ajax (+0.5)	31.8%	31.3%	55.5%	0.56×	3.19
RKC Waalwijk (-2.5)	25.4%	26.3%	11.8%	2.23×	3.80
Jong Ajax (-0.5)	14.5%	11.6%	33.5%	0.34×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede	90.7%	91.8%	81.3%	1.13×	1.09
Jong Ajax clean sheet	9.3%	8.2%	18.7%	0.44×	12.16

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 1st half	63.9%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 1st half	36.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to concede in 2nd half	74.1%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Jong Ajax clean sheet in 2nd half	25.9%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 6.5 corners	80.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Jong Ajax over 2.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Jong Ajax under 5.5 corners	68.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Jong Ajax over 3.5 corners	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax under 4.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Jong Ajax over 4.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Jong Ajax under 3.5 corners	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Jong Ajax over 5.5 corners	31.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Jong Ajax under 2.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Jong Ajax over 6.5 corners	20.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	93.0%	1.05×	1.03
Jong Ajax under 2.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	81.5%	1.13×	1.08
Jong Ajax under 1.5 goals	73.8%	71.9%	58.0%	1.24×	1.39
Jong Ajax over 0.5 goals	63.0%	63.2%	72.7%	0.87×	1.58
Jong Ajax under 0.5 goals	37.0%	36.8%	27.3%	1.35×	2.72
Jong Ajax over 1.5 goals	26.2%	28.1%	42.0%	0.67×	3.56
Jong Ajax over 2.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	18.6%	0.41×	13.05
Jong Ajax over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	7.0%	0.36×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax under 1.5 in 1st half	93.9%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Jong Ajax under 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Jong Ajax over 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
Jong Ajax over 1.5 in 1st half	6.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.52

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax scores equally in both	46.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Jong Ajax scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Jong Ajax scores more in 1st half	20.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (away no bet)	79.7%	73.7%	66.8%	1.10×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	20.3%	26.3%	33.2%	0.79×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax even goals	56.8%	56.9%	57.0%	1.00×	1.76
Jong Ajax odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	43.0%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.0%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.0%	18.8%	—	—	5.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.2%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.8%	27.7%	—	—	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	69.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
RKC Waalwijk to score 2+ in a row	60.8%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+ in a row	31.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Jong Ajax to score 2+ in a row	16.6%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Jong Ajax to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.70

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk corners (+3.5)	90.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
RKC Waalwijk corners (+2.5)	84.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
RKC Waalwijk corners (+1.5)	77.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Jong Ajax corners (+3.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Jong Ajax corners (+2.5)	64.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax corners (+1.5)	53.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
RKC Waalwijk corners (-1.5)	46.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
RKC Waalwijk corners (-2.5)	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
RKC Waalwijk corners (-3.5)	26.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Jong Ajax corners (-1.5)	23.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Jong Ajax corners (-2.5)	15.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Jong Ajax corners (-3.5)	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	33.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	64.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	44.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.50
2-0	9.7%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.50
Any other score	9.5%	7.4%	4.7%	1.59×	13.50
1-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.50
3-0	7.7%	7.4%	4.1%	1.83×	13.50
3-1	7.6%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.50
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
0-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
0-1	3.7%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
0-2	1.7%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.31
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
1-2	4.1%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
3-2	3.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.32
4-0	4.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.29
4-1	4.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.29
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2nd half DNB)	77.0%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Jong Ajax (2nd half DNB)	23.0%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT (DNB)	78.0%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Jong Ajax leading at HT (DNB)	22.0%	24.8%	—	—	4.04

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1X)	85.5%	86.5%	66.5%	1.30×	1.16
RKC Waalwijk or Jong Ajax (12)	82.7%	80.6%	77.9%	1.04×	1.24
Jong Ajax or draw (X2)	31.8%	35.2%	55.5%	0.63×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw at HT	85.7%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
RKC Waalwijk or Jong Ajax at HT	65.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Jong Ajax or draw at HT	49.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw (1UP)	85.5%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Jong Ajax or draw (1UP)	33.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk or draw in 2nd half	83.5%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
RKC Waalwijk or Jong Ajax in 2nd half	71.9%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Jong Ajax or draw in 2nd half	44.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.6%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.4%	49.9%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (DNB)	82.5%	80.3%	57.0%	1.41×	1.25
Jong Ajax (DNB)	17.5%	19.7%	43.0%	0.46×	5.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score first	68.2%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Jong Ajax to score first	28.6%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.9%	55.0%	58.8%	0.93×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.1%	45.0%	41.2%	1.09×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.0%	44.4%	49.5%	0.90×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	26.8%	33.3%	28.3%	1.18×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	16.4%	21.5%	13.0%	1.65×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.0%	82.6%	79.0%	1.05×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.0%	17.4%	21.0%	0.83×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.8%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	26.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Both score 1st half only	13.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.8%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
A half without a goal	35.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.3%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.9%	35.1%	37.6%	0.93×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.4%	20.2%	18.4%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.5%	7.6%	3.2%	2.38×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax to score exactly 0	37.0%	35.9%	27.3%	1.32×	2.78
Jong Ajax to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	30.8%	1.17×	2.78
Jong Ajax to score exactly 2	18.3%	19.6%	23.6%	0.83×	5.11
Jong Ajax to score 3+	7.9%	8.6%	18.6%	0.46×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score 3+	42.2%	35.3%	25.6%	1.38×	2.84
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 1	22.2%	23.3%	30.2%	0.77×	4.29
RKC Waalwijk to score exactly 0	9.3%	10.3%	18.7%	0.55×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk leading at HT	50.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Draw at HT	35.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Jong Ajax leading at HT	14.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk -1: 1	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
RKC Waalwijk -1: 2	31.8%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
RKC Waalwijk -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (0:1)	45.4%	46.1%	24.4%	1.89×	2.17
Jong Ajax (0:1)	31.8%	30.1%	55.5%	0.54×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (0:2)	54.6%	58.2%	75.6%	0.77×	1.72
RKC Waalwijk (0:2)	25.4%	23.9%	11.8%	2.03×	4.18
Draw (0:2)	20.0%	15.3%	12.8%	1.20×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (0:3)	74.6%	77.8%	88.2%	0.88×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	13.4%	10.0%	5.7%	1.76×	10.03
RKC Waalwijk (0:3)	12.0%	9.9%	6.3%	1.59×	10.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax (0:4)	88.0%	91.9%	93.7%	0.98×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.2%	4.6%	4.3%	1.07×	21.64
RKC Waalwijk (0:4)	4.8%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (1:0)	85.5%	86.0%	66.5%	1.29×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	18.2%	0.38×	14.46
Jong Ajax (1:0)	4.8%	3.3%	15.5%	0.21×	30.36

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk (2:0)	95.2%	96.8%	84.5%	1.14×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.5%	2.3%	8.8%	0.26×	43.61
Jong Ajax (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	6.8%	0.34×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
1st half highest scoring	28.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	21.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to concede	63.0%	63.7%	72.7%	0.88×	1.57
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet	37.0%	36.3%	27.3%	1.33×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 1st half	67.2%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 1st half	32.8%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk clean sheet in 2nd half	55.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
RKC Waalwijk to concede in 2nd half	45.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 corners	88.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 corners	77.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
RKC Waalwijk over 4.5 corners	63.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
RKC Waalwijk under 6.5 corners	63.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
RKC Waalwijk under 5.5 corners	50.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
RKC Waalwijk over 5.5 corners	49.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
RKC Waalwijk under 4.5 corners	36.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
RKC Waalwijk over 6.5 corners	36.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 corners	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 corners	11.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 goals	90.7%	92.2%	81.3%	1.13×	1.08
RKC Waalwijk under 3.5 goals	78.5%	77.7%	89.9%	0.86×	1.29
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	51.2%	1.33×	1.47
RKC Waalwijk under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	74.4%	0.79×	1.71
RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	25.6%	1.62×	2.42
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	48.8%	0.66×	3.12
RKC Waalwijk over 3.5 goals	21.5%	22.3%	10.1%	2.21×	4.49
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 goals	9.3%	7.8%	18.7%	0.42×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk under 1.5 in 1st half	72.9%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
RKC Waalwijk over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
RKC Waalwijk under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
RKC Waalwijk over 1.5 in 1st half	27.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 2nd half	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
RKC Waalwijk scores more in 1st half	28.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
RKC Waalwijk scores equally in both	27.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.4%	51.4%	39.7%	1.29×	1.95
Jong Ajax (home no bet)	45.6%	48.6%	60.3%	0.81×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk even goals	50.4%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
RKC Waalwijk odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	24.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.09
HT 0-0	24.2%	24.5%	—	—	4.09
HT 2-0	12.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 0-1	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	5.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Draw at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	19.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Jong Ajax at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
RKC Waalwijk at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Jong Ajax at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Jong Ajax at HT / RKC Waalwijk at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
RKC Waalwijk at HT / Jong Ajax at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to score last	68.1%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Jong Ajax to score last	28.7%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 1 at any time	79.4%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 2 at any time	52.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Jong Ajax to lead by 1 at any time	33.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
RKC Waalwijk to lead by 3 at any time	29.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Jong Ajax to lead by 2 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.82
Jong Ajax to lead by 3 at any time	2.2%	1.6%	—	—	62.58

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk most corners	57.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Jong Ajax most corners	32.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	83.4%	86.4%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	71.9%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	72.7%	0.99×	1.38
3-6 goals	59.9%	59.1%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
2-4 goals	59.7%	59.1%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.4%	53.2%	54.7%	0.97×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.9%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.3%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.9%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.5%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.9%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.4%	18.8%	18.2%	1.04×	5.31
7+ goals	5.5%	8.9%	3.2%	2.78×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk never behind	63.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Jong Ajax never behind	17.4%	18.4%	—	—	5.45

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.8%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.6%	82.3%	81.6%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	78.7%	0.98×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	65.3%	66.3%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	56.6%	58.6%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	43.4%	41.4%	40.7%	1.02×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	34.7%	33.7%	37.6%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	21.3%	1.07×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.7%	18.4%	0.96×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.2%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.1%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.8%	86.7%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.0%	81.1%	77.2%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.4%	67.5%	73.6%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.6%	55.8%	52.0%	1.07×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.4%	44.2%	48.0%	0.92×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.6%	32.5%	26.4%	1.23×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.0%	18.9%	22.8%	0.83×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.2%	13.3%	10.2%	1.30×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.9%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.9%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.6%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.4%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.9%	—	—	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.1%	14.2%	—	—	7.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.8%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to score in both halves	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
RKC Waalwijk not to score in both halves	52.6%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
RKC Waalwijk to score in both halves	47.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Jong Ajax to score in both halves	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.9%	58.6%	58.8%	1.00×	1.71
Only RKC Waalwijk scores	33.8%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.00
Only Jong Ajax scores	6.2%	7.1%	14.0%	0.51×	14.05
Neither team scores	3.2%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.3%	17.5%	19.3%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.5%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.5%	12.1%	9.0%	1.35×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.2%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	24.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
No goals in 1st half	24.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	17.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.9%	54.2%	—	—	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	14.2%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win both halves	97.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
RKC Waalwijk not to win both halves	72.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
RKC Waalwijk to win both halves	28.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Jong Ajax to win both halves	2.3%	2.8%	—	—	35.80

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk to win either half	78.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Jong Ajax to win neither half	71.5%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Jong Ajax to win either half	28.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
RKC Waalwijk to win neither half	21.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong Ajax not to win to nil	93.8%	92.1%	86.0%	1.07×	1.09
RKC Waalwijk not to win to nil	66.2%	69.6%	77.4%	0.90×	1.44
RKC Waalwijk to win to nil	33.8%	30.4%	22.6%	1.34×	3.29
Jong Ajax to win to nil	6.2%	7.9%	14.0%	0.56×	12.68

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RKC Waalwijk by 3+	25.4%	27.9%	11.8%	2.36×	3.59
RKC Waalwijk by 1	22.8%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.15
RKC Waalwijk by 2	20.0%	17.1%	12.8%	1.33×	5.86
Draw	17.3%	17.0%	22.1%	0.77×	5.87
Jong Ajax by 1	9.7%	7.2%	18.2%	0.40×	13.90
Jong Ajax by 2	3.5%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	36.79
Jong Ajax by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.87