Rodina Moscow v Krasnodar — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 October 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627
RUS-Premier League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-2 11.0%
- 1-2 9.5%
- 0-3 8.8%
- 1-1 8.8%
- 0-1 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 63.5% | Under 2.5 | 36.5% |
| BTTS yes | 53.5% | BTTS no | 46.5% |
| Rodina Moscow 1+ | 57.9% | Rodina Moscow 2+ | 21.4% |
| Krasnodar 1+ | 91.0% | Krasnodar 2+ | 69.3% |
Expected goals 0.86 – 2.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1467.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Rodina Moscow have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Krasnodar have an estimated 70.6% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 10.8% for Rodina Moscow. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.86 for Rodina Moscow and 2.41 for Krasnodar.
Why Rodina Moscow
Nothing in the data singles out Rodina Moscow.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Krasnodar can win
Krasnodar carry the stronger rating, 1768 Elo against 1467. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Rodina Moscow, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Krasnodar, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Rodina Moscow: 44% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Krasnodar: 53% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Krasnodar are the model's most likely outcome at 70.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.0%. Confidence 73/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.86–2.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.97–2.45 | 0-2 10% | 66% | 58% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.