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Roma v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–2
0.67 – 1.77 xG
Shots
5 – 18
On target
1 – 7
Shots in box
3 – 13
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.53
Goals − xG
-0.67 – +0.23
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Marten de Roon 68' — goalNicolo Zaniolo 88' — goal
Roma 0.67 xGAtalanta 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mateo Retegui 3' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Leandro Paredes 3' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kouadio Kone 12' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Raoul Bellanova 22' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 29' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Raoul Bellanova 30' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 33' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 40' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sead Kolasinac 65' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marco Brescianini 68' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marten de Roon 68' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eldor Shomurodov 70' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Mancini 75' — Missed Shot (0.59 xG, Set Piece)Lazar Samardzic 76' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 78' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lazar Samardzic 79' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Éderson 82' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Marco Brescianini 83' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Zaniolo 84' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Berat Gjimshiti 87' — Saved Shot (0.44 xG, Set Piece)Nicolo Zaniolo 88' — Goal (0.02 xG, From Corner)Lazar Samardzic 92' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Stephan El Shaarawy 93' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Roma attacking right Atalanta attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Matteo Ruggeri
3' Roma Leandro Paredes 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
12' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Leandro Paredes
22' Atalanta Raoul Bellanova 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matteo Ruggeri
29' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.35 Open Play Saved Shot Éderson
30' Atalanta Raoul Bellanova 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Matteo Ruggeri
33' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Matteo Ruggeri
40' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot
65' Atalanta Sead Kolasinac 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nicolo Zaniolo
68' Atalanta Marco Brescianini 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Raoul Bellanova
68' Atalanta Marten de Roon 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal
70' Roma Eldor Shomurodov 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Mehmet Zeki Çelik
75' Roma Gianluca Mancini 0.59 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Alexis Saelemaekers
76' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
78' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Raoul Bellanova
79' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
82' Atalanta Éderson 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marco Brescianini
83' Atalanta Marco Brescianini 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lazar Samardzic
84' Atalanta Nicolo Zaniolo 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Berat Gjimshiti
87' Atalanta Berat Gjimshiti 0.44 Set Piece Saved Shot Lazar Samardzic
88' Atalanta Nicolo Zaniolo 0.02 From Corner Goal Juan Cuadrado
92' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
93' Roma Stephan El Shaarawy 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.59 0.00 0.01
Kouadio Kone MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Leandro Paredes MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.06
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Angelino DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paulo Dybala AMC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Bryan Cristante MC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mats Hummels DC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Artem Dovbyk FW 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eldor Shomurodov Sub 28 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Alexis Saelemaekers Sub 18 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.59 0.00
Stephan El Shaarawy Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Nicola Zalewski Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matìas Soulè Malvano Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Éderson MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.35 0.35 0.80
Raoul Bellanova DMR 90 0 0 2 2 0.11 0.04 0.30
Sead Kolasinac DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.87
Marten de Roon MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.44
Isak Hien DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Marco Carnesecchi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Odilon Kossounou DC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Ademola Lookman AMC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Charles De Ketelaere AMC 63 0 0 1 0 0.35 0.00 0.39
Mateo Retegui FW 54 0 0 3 0 0.12 0.00 0.08
Matteo Ruggeri DML 54 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.20 0.51
Lazar Samardzic Sub 36 0 0 3 2 0.14 0.51 0.25
Juan Cuadrado Sub 36 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.42
Marco Brescianini Sub 27 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.35 0.44
Nicolo Zaniolo Sub 26 1 0 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.11
Berat Gjimshiti Sub 7 0 0 1 1 0.44 0.07 0.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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